Erickson’s Fantasy Football Bust Guide: Draft Strategy & Advice (2023)

You know the old phrase…” Strangers are the friends you haven’t met yet?” Well, in fantasy football land, I think there’s a similar idiom. Busts are often the breakouts that fail to fire. Before players are labeled as “busts” at the conclusion of the season (or early-to-middle, depending on just how bad the player was) there’s usually a legitimate case as to why they are being drafted so highly. The case for unthinkingly drafting “upside” is often accompanied by a significant amount of risk that some drafters overlook entirely. I tend to also agree with this upside-driven approach – if you ain’t first, you’re last, Ricky Bobby – but it’s still important to recognize the risk and sheer bust potential with certain players heading into the 2023 fantasy football season.

In this article, I’ll break down what a bust looks like at each position while calling out which players come with the most red flags that have me overly concerned about their bust potential in 2023. And although I am not an injury expert, I will be coming to the table with some injury notes on players. Because many busts fail to perform due to injuries, and it’s not something you should just totally ignore. Especially with the increase in data on injuries from several different experts.

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You’ll also notice that several of these bust players differ from the players listed in my “Players to Avoid” article. That is not by mistake. Because not all players I’m shying away from will be busts. Specifically, with certain positions, as I’ll touch on soon, some players may finish exactly where their ADPs are. But that’s not how I am playing the game. I don’t want players to meet expectations, I want them to exceed expectations. And at the same time, I want to circumvent the players that may drastically fail to meet their expectations. These are the fantasy football busts. Gabe Davis wasn’t a bust last year because he played like trash. He was the WR27. He scored the same points per game as Zay Jones…who many look back on and are fond of from last season.