Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry, I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be looking to draft a ton this year. And below you’ll find a few free picks to help you prepare. Let’s have a great season.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Derek Brown’s Players to Target
Here are a few of my players to target in 2023 fantasy football.
VERY VERY Undervalued.
If Dameon Pierce is an RB1 this year…
NO ONE…I MEAN NO ONE AT ALL SHOULD BE SURPRISED…NO ONE. https://t.co/IpmOtwT9os
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) June 28, 2023
Dameon Pierce is ready to rumble in his second NFL season. The 49er influence will be felt in the design of this Houston offense. With a rookie quarterback under center, Pierce should be the straw that stirs the drink for Houston in 2022. In his rookie season, Pierce was the RB16 in expected fantasy points per game with 19.8 touches per game in the 12 games where he played at least 50% of the snaps. Pierce was also ninth in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in breakaway percentage. Devin Singletary will spell him at times on early downs, but this is Pierce’s backfield. He’s an RB2 with RB1 upside.
Lamb finally broke out last year in his third NFL season and entered the WR1 ranks in fantasy (WR7). Last year, he was top-six in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns among wide receivers. Lamb is an elite target earner, ranking ninth in target share (28.7%) and seventh in target per route run rate (30.1%). He was top-seven in route win rate and win rate against man coverage, and it’s possible that we haven’t seen Lamb’s absolute ceiling. He ranked 18th in red zone targets last year, but thankfully ran hot with nine touchdowns (fourth-most). If the Cowboys make Lamb a focal point in the red zone, a 12-14 touchdown campaign isn’t out of the range of outcomes. With Michael Gallup hopefully rounding back into form and adding Brandin Cooks, opposing defenses won’t be able to key in on Lamb as much in 2023.
Could Amon-Ra St. Brown be THE WR1 in 2023?
I think it's VERY VERY possible.
We know the target volume is there.
Last year
8th in raw targets (146)
11th in target share (28.1%)
3rd in target per route run rateIf the passing volume and his target pie ticks up a tad higher… pic.twitter.com/XOeZXeY1Pz
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 4, 2023
St. Brown emphatically proved last year that his rookie season prowess was no fluke. He continued to draw targets at a ridiculous rate, ranking third in target per route run rate and eighth in raw target volume. St. Brown was ninth in yards per route run and eighth in red zone targets. He could enter the top-five fantasy wide receiver discussion this season if his late-season red zone use continues into this upcoming year. In Weeks 10-18, St. Brown led all wide receivers in red zone targets. He carries double-digit receiving touchdown upside this year. With Jameson Williams out of commission for the first six weeks, St. Brown could be headed for a career-defining season. Don’t get burned by bypassing the Sun God in drafts.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*