Winning your fantasy draft comes down to selecting the guys who end up returning a positive ROI relative to their draft cost. What’s great is that once you get to the middle and late rounds, you don’t need to hit on every player (or even half of them) to wind up with a league-winning squad. You just need to be right enough so that the value your picks provide is greater than that of your competition.

Part of the difficulty built into this game we love is that no two sleepers are created equally. You can’t just nab a bunch of upside players in the late rounds and expect to dominate your draft. You need to know which sleepers are the most undervalued and offer the most upside compared to their price. To help you figure out which mid-to-late rounders stand out from the pack, we have polled 80+ experts on who the best sleepers are at every position in half-PPR heading into the new season. Check out which QBs they chose below.

• Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
• Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
• Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Consensus Fantasy Football Sleepers: Quarterbacks

Of the names above, who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy sleeper and why?

Kenny Pickett (QB – PIT)

“Kenny Pickett just feels like a guy who is ready to step onto the scene and announce himself in year two of his career. Quarterbacks have had a pretty solid recent record of stepping up in their second years. See Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence as examples. Pickett was very hot and cold in his rookie season but did clean things up as the season went along, ending the season leading the Steelers to three very solid victories over the Raiders, Ravens, and Browns. Will Pickett be a 5,000-yard passer like Mahomes’ sophomore year? Probably not. But does Pickett have the tools, rushing ability, and weapons in his offense to be similar to Trevor Lawrence’s second year with 30 total touchdowns? Yes, he does, and I am willing to take that bet for a guy that is the ECR QB21. ”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

“Kenny Pickett showed out this preseason, completing 13-of-15 passes for 199 yards, with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Steelers are showing more confidence in last year’s first-round draft pick, and with a full offseason as the unquestioned starter, Pickett is poised for a year-two breakout. He’s got great weapons in Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth and is an underrated runner. Don’t be surprised to see Pickett pushing for low-end QB1 consideration this season. ”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)

Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)

“Baker Mayfield is a long-forgotten #1 draft pick that most fantasy owners have left for dead. He started out strong, even ranked as high as the #2 dynasty quarterback, and then, everything that could go wrong went wrong in Cleveland. Long gone are those days and expectations. Last year he showed that he has something left in the tank for a Rams team decimated by injuries. This year he is again a starting quarterback in Tampa Bay on a team with excellent wide receivers and rising running backs/tight ends, which could lead to him being a sneaky value as QB #32, especially in SuperFlex leagues!”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

Sam Howell (QB – WAS)

“Sam Howell is my favorite sleeper for the 2023 season. When Howell has had talent in his offense, he has performed impressively as a passer. Adding Eric Bieniemy will help change this offense into an elite unit led by Howell. The sneakiest trait about Howell is his ability to run, and he has the potential to produce over 400 rushing yards in the season. Howell is going to turn many heads in 2023.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

Brock Purdy (QB – SF)

“In seven of eight healthy games last season, Purdy put up at least 15 fantasy points in relief of both Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance as a 7th-round rookie. Now, Purdy is fully recovered from his elbow injury, repping with the 1st team this preseason, and has the QB1 role in San Francisco to himself. Purdy performed well in relief: QB13 in PFF pass grade, QB7 in adjusted completion percentage, and had the highest NFL passer rating in the league (min. 170 att). The 49ers also return Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and consensus RB1 Christian McCaffrey as some of the best all-around weapons in the league. Purdy is my QB15 despite an ECR of QB23. ”
– Bradley Stalder (Player Profiler)

“Brock Purdy has the full support of all the brass in San Francisco with his inspiring finish to last season. Posting top-10 QB finishes on a regular basis is one thing; doing so as a rookie is another. We can expect both sophomore leap growth and continued success behind a Kyle Shanahan system weaponized on yards after contact and easy decisions. The comparisons between Purdy and Garoppolo are unfounded, given the different stages of their careers and the upgraded overall offense the Niners now possess. ”
– David Zach (FantasyPros)

Mac Jones (QB – NE)

“Before you call me crazy for picking Mac Jones here, please just hear me out. I’ll concede that Jones looked awful last year, but I’d also postulate that a lot of that awfulness occurred because Jones was thrust into an offensive system that was built by a defensive coordinator and a special teams coach. While Jones wasn’t exactly Patrick Mahomes during his rookie year, he was MUCH better than he was last year and he’ll greatly benefit from having a real offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien calling plays this year. Jones is currently ranked as QB30 in the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings. I’m not telling you he’s going to put up a top-10 season, but he has a LOT of room to provide value in comparison to his draft slot and should be being drafted closer to QB15 than QB30 — which leaves a lot of upside for leagues where you have to start two quarterbacks.”
– Nick Raducanu (Dr. Roto)

Jared Goff (QB – DET)

“Jared Goff has top 7 potential. In 2022 Goff had over 4400 passing yards, 29 touchdowns with only 7 INTs. The team drafted an RB (Gibbs) and TE (LaPorta) to continue the offensive mindset. The defense should also be better as they added LB Jack Campbell with the 18th overall pick and DB Brian Branch in the 2nd round. Free Agency brought in more help in the secondary. The OLINE remains solid. Goff should well outperform his QB17 current ADP.”
– Ken Zalis (FantasyPros)

Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ)

“Among NFL quarterbacks starting at least 10 games in the last three seasons, Aaron Rodgers ranks 2nd in Touchdown Passes, 1st in Passing Touchdown Rate, 5th in Passing Completion Rate, and 10th in Passing Yards Per Attempt. He finished as the QB13 last year, which was clearly low for him compared to recent years; however, he finished as the QB5 in 2021 and the QB3 in 2020. He now enters a talented New York Jets offense reunited with former Green Bay Packers Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who helped engineer an offense that led to Rodgers earning back-to-back NFL MVPs. Rodgers should outpace his current Fantasy Pros ECR of QB16, he’s very much in QB1 territory for me this season.”
– Jon Jeune (Fantasy Football Diagnostics)

Jordan Love (QB – GB)

“When looking for sleepers, we need one thing, and that’s uncertainty – someone who has a wide range of outcomes, and because of that, perceived risk is being discounted relative to where their expected or median outcome might be. This opens the door for huge upside if they reach the upper set of their possibilities, and to me, Jordan Love fits that description perfectly. He’s no Aaron Rodgers, but he’s still in the same successful LaFleur system with solid weapons, so if he’s able to execute it, then the fantasy rewards may be fruitful in a time where hitting on a later-round QB affords your team incredible flexibility and upside.”
– Benjamin Klotz (Touchdown Squad)

Russell Wilson (QB – DEN)

“There’s a lot to forget from the 2022 Denver Broncos, but let’s give them the 2021 Jaguars treatment where we understand the impact of bad coaching, erase the year from our memory, and reap the draft value the following year. Prior to last year, Russell Wilson averaged a 6.3% TD rate, 7.8 yards per attempt, and 65% completion rate. In a year to forget, he posted a 3.3% TD rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, and 60% completion rate. He just wasn’t himself. Sean Payton has arrived to right the ship. Wilson still boasts a talented receiving room with wideouts Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, as well as tight end Greg Dulcich. Add in additional weapons in Marvin Mims, Adam Trautman, and Samaje Perine, and we have an offense that is wildly underrated heading into the 2023 season. Russ is back in the kitchen.”
– Robby Jeffries (The Fantasy Authority)

Check out more Fantasy Football Sleepers

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.