Winning your fantasy draft comes down to selecting the guys who end up returning a positive ROI relative to their draft cost. What’s great is that once you get to the middle and late rounds, you don’t need to hit on every player (or even half of them) to wind up with a league-winning squad. You just need to be right enough so that the value your picks provide is greater than that of your competition.
Part of the difficulty built into this game we love is that no two sleepers are created equally. You can’t just nab a bunch of upside players in the late rounds and expect to dominate your draft. You need to know which sleepers are the most undervalued and offer the most upside compared to their price. To help you figure out which mid-to-late rounders stand out from the pack, we have polled 80+ experts on who the best sleepers are at every position in half-PPR heading into the new season. Check out who they chose below.
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Top Consensus Sleepers
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Quarterback Sleepers
Of the names above, who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy sleeper and why?
“Kenny Pickett just feels like a guy who is ready to step onto the scene and announce himself in year two of his career. Quarterbacks have had a pretty solid recent record of stepping up in their second years. See Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence as examples. Pickett was very hot and cold in his rookie season but did clean things up as the season went along, ending the season leading the Steelers to three very solid victories over the Raiders, Ravens, and Browns. Will Pickett be a 5,000-yard passer like Mahomes’ sophomore year? Probably not. But does Pickett have the tools, rushing ability, and weapons in his offense to be similar to Trevor Lawrence’s second year with 30 total touchdowns? Yes, he does, and I am willing to take that bet for a guy that is the ECR QB21. ”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“Kenny Pickett showed out this preseason, completing 13-of-15 passes for 199 yards, with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Steelers are showing more confidence in last year’s first-round draft pick, and with a full offseason as the unquestioned starter, Pickett is poised for a year-two breakout. He’s got great weapons in Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth and is an underrated runner. Don’t be surprised to see Pickett pushing for low-end QB1 consideration this season. ”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)
“Baker Mayfield is a long-forgotten #1 draft pick that most fantasy owners have left for dead. He started out strong, even ranked as high as the #2 dynasty quarterback, and then, everything that could go wrong went wrong in Cleveland. Long gone are those days and expectations. Last year he showed that he has something left in the tank for a Rams team decimated by injuries. This year he is again a starting quarterback in Tampa Bay on a team with excellent wide receivers and rising running backs/tight ends, which could lead to him being a sneaky value as QB #32, especially in SuperFlex leagues!”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
“Sam Howell is my favorite sleeper for the 2023 season. When Howell has had talent in his offense, he has performed impressively as a passer. Adding Eric Bieniemy will help change this offense into an elite unit led by Howell. The sneakiest trait about Howell is his ability to run, and he has the potential to produce over 400 rushing yards in the season. Howell is going to turn many heads in 2023.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
“In seven of eight healthy games last season, Purdy put up at least 15 fantasy points in relief of both Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance as a 7th-round rookie. Now, Purdy is fully recovered from his elbow injury, repping with the 1st team this preseason, and has the QB1 role in San Francisco to himself. Purdy performed well in relief: QB13 in PFF pass grade, QB7 in adjusted completion percentage, and had the highest NFL passer rating in the league (min. 170 att). The 49ers also return Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and consensus RB1 Christian McCaffrey as some of the best all-around weapons in the league. Purdy is my QB15 despite an ECR of QB23. ”
– Bradley Stalder (Player Profiler)
“Brock Purdy has the full support of all the brass in San Francisco with his inspiring finish to last season. Posting top-10 QB finishes on a regular basis is one thing; doing so as a rookie is another. We can expect both sophomore leap growth and continued success behind a Kyle Shanahan system weaponized on yards after contact and easy decisions. The comparisons between Purdy and Garoppolo are unfounded, given the different stages of their careers and the upgraded overall offense the Niners now possess. ”
– David Zach (FantasyPros)
“Before you call me crazy for picking Mac Jones here, please just hear me out. I’ll concede that Jones looked awful last year, but I’d also postulate that a lot of that awfulness occurred because Jones was thrust into an offensive system that was built by a defensive coordinator and a special teams coach. While Jones wasn’t exactly Patrick Mahomes during his rookie year, he was MUCH better than he was last year and he’ll greatly benefit from having a real offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien calling plays this year. Jones is currently ranked as QB30 in the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings. I’m not telling you he’s going to put up a top-10 season, but he has a LOT of room to provide value in comparison to his draft slot and should be being drafted closer to QB15 than QB30 — which leaves a lot of upside for leagues where you have to start two quarterbacks.”
– Nick Raducanu (Dr. Roto)
“Jared Goff has top 7 potential. In 2022 Goff had over 4400 passing yards, 29 touchdowns with only 7 INTs. The team drafted an RB (Gibbs) and TE (LaPorta) to continue the offensive mindset. The defense should also be better as they added LB Jack Campbell with the 18th overall pick and DB Brian Branch in the 2nd round. Free Agency brought in more help in the secondary. The OLINE remains solid. Goff should well outperform his QB17 current ADP.”
– Ken Zalis (FantasyPros)
“Among NFL quarterbacks starting at least 10 games in the last three seasons, Aaron Rodgers ranks 2nd in Touchdown Passes, 1st in Passing Touchdown Rate, 5th in Passing Completion Rate, and 10th in Passing Yards Per Attempt. He finished as the QB13 last year, which was clearly low for him compared to recent years; however, he finished as the QB5 in 2021 and the QB3 in 2020. He now enters a talented New York Jets offense reunited with former Green Bay Packers Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who helped engineer an offense that led to Rodgers earning back-to-back NFL MVPs. Rodgers should outpace his current Fantasy Pros ECR of QB16, he’s very much in QB1 territory for me this season.”
– Jon Jeune (Fantasy Football Diagnostics)
“When looking for sleepers, we need one thing, and that’s uncertainty – someone who has a wide range of outcomes, and because of that, perceived risk is being discounted relative to where their expected or median outcome might be. This opens the door for huge upside if they reach the upper set of their possibilities, and to me, Jordan Love fits that description perfectly. He’s no Aaron Rodgers, but he’s still in the same successful LaFleur system with solid weapons, so if he’s able to execute it, then the fantasy rewards may be fruitful in a time where hitting on a later-round QB affords your team incredible flexibility and upside.”
– Benjamin Klotz (Touchdown Squad)
“There’s a lot to forget from the 2022 Denver Broncos, but let’s give them the 2021 Jaguars treatment where we understand the impact of bad coaching, erase the year from our memory, and reap the draft value the following year. Prior to last year, Russell Wilson averaged a 6.3% TD rate, 7.8 yards per attempt, and 65% completion rate. In a year to forget, he posted a 3.3% TD rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, and 60% completion rate. He just wasn’t himself. Sean Payton has arrived to right the ship. Wilson still boasts a talented receiving room with wideouts Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, as well as tight end Greg Dulcich. Add in additional weapons in Marvin Mims, Adam Trautman, and Samaje Perine, and we have an offense that is wildly underrated heading into the 2023 season. Russ is back in the kitchen.”
– Robby Jeffries (The Fantasy Authority)
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Running Back Sleepers
Of the names above, who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy sleeper and why?
“Roschon Johnson is a lesser-known player being a day three rookie who played in the shadows of Bijan Robinson. Johnson is already running with the ones, and the grip that Khalil Herbert has on the job is not tight. Herbert has struggled in pass protection and with drops. Johnson has the size and ability of a three-down back. Could end up being the starter, and he is being drafted 158th over (RB52).”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
“I am all-in on Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby. Travis Etienne struggled at the goal line last season and is not the natural pass catcher that people think he is. Bigsby is not only tough to take down when he gets carries, but he had 32 receptions in college, making him a potential three-down RB should Etienne get injured. I think he is particularly a great play in standard and 0.5-pt PPR formats. Bigsby is a great choice as your RB4 this season.”
– Dr. Roto (FullTime Fantasy)
“The Jaguars’ rookie RB has looked good in preseason and appears to have carved out a role for himself in the offense. Travis Etienne will be the starter, but Tank Bigsby has the opportunity to be the team’s power rusher and goal-line back. Huge upside compared to his ECR of RB48.”
– Neema Hodjat (Real GM)
“Javonte Williams. The guy was the league’s top tackle-breaking rusher prior to his ACL tear last season, and by all accounts he will be as close to 100 percent as one can be coming off such an injury (their first year back). Many assume a runner cannot return to form that first year coming off an ACL tear, but that is just lazy analysis; it really just comes down to preparedness, age and situation, all of which Javonte has in his favor to an extreme degree. Javonte is having a near miracle recovery and he has top 10RB value written all over him heading into Week 1.”
– Smitty (TheFantasyFootballShow)
“Jaylen Warren will be this year’s biggest sleeper. While rookies are a trendy pick for these, Warren has slipped through the cracks. In his rookie season, he averaged a hefty 4.9 yards per carry and recorded 28 receptions. With how he’s looked so far this preseason, it could be only a matter of time before he’s threatening Najee Harris for the lion’s share of work in this Steeler’s backfield ”
– David Mendelson (Triple Play Fantasy)
“Jaylen Warren should climb the RB rankings as the season progresses and the young Steelers offense begins to claim its identity, and I’m banking that that identity will include passing attempts to RBs. Last season, Najee Harris had 200 more rushing attempts than Warren and ran for almost 700 more yards; however, Kenny Pickett demonstrated his preference for throwing to the rookie as Warren finished only 13 receptions and 15 yards behind Harris while showing a superior 7.6 yards per reception. I think this backfield will be treated like more of a committee than people expect, and Warren’s ability to catch the ball will set him apart.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
“I feel like I’m cheating by listing Montgomery as a sleeper, but he falls within the parameters of this exercise. It is well documented in late August how many touches were left behind (421 to be exact) in Detroit’s backfield with the departures of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs now take over their respective roles. While Montgomery likely won’t find the end zone 17 times like Williams did (anomaly of anomalies), he’s a strong candidate for 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns. If he plays a full season, the first-year Lion is a lock for RB2 status and can even attain Top 15 accolades.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)
“We all love Jahmyr Gibbs. He checks all the boxes for success with the Lions. However, there is room on this team for two prolific RBs. Last year we saw Jamaal Williams’ impressive season; David Montgomery is a better RB. The Lions have nearly 85% available carries and nearly 97% carries inside the five-yard line. Those touches often turn into TDs! He is being ranked as the RB30, and there is potential for him to be a solid RB2 with production spikes when those TDs come around.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)
“I was shocked that David Montgomery is still being drafted outside of the top 25. I believe he is a lock for top-24 production with his volume and potential behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. No matter how electric 12th overall pick Jahmyr Gibbs is, his size limits his ability to be a between-the-tackle grinder like Montgomery. I’m not calling for a Jamaal Williams 2.0 season with 17 TDs, but Montgomery’s touchdown upside is certainly the icing on this cake.”
– Ellis Johnson (RotoBaller)
“Efficiency-wise, Cook was solid, averaging 6.2 yards per touch, the 4th best by a rookie RB over the last decade with 100+ touches. The second-year pro is locked into the elite pass-catching role vacated in the backfield. I fully expect him to take on a much larger role as a receiver in the Bills passing attack. Give him a slight bump in PPR leagues; he’s more of a FLEX-type play to start the year but has the upside to finish as a solid RB2.”
– Marc Shannep (Fantasy Knockout)
“Jerick McKinnon – After the Week 8 Chiefs bye, McKinnon averaged 4.3 catches and 13.2 half-PPR fantasy points per game, tied for 5th and 10th most among regular running backs. And he is poised to play a similar role in 2023 after the Chiefs made just modest additions to their backfield in former Jets journeyman La’Mical Perine and undrafted rookie Deneric Prince.”
– Scott Spratt (FTN)
“Alvin Kamara being listed among available RB “Sleepers” is everything you need to know about how undervalued he is going into this season. Yes, his three-game suspension is an annoyance for fantasy managers; however, the suspension is baked into the cost at his current ADP of RB27. People forget just how dominant Alvin Kamara can be when he is in a legitimate offense, not one led by Taysom Hill or Andy Dalton. In his down year last year, Kamara was still the RB13 in PPG despite a decrease in efficiency, only four total TDs (including three in one game), and issues at the QB position. With a hungry Derek Carr at the helm, I expect the Saints offense to be much improved this season, and Kamara drafters will be very happy they took a chance on him once Week Four rolls around. ”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)
“Alvin Kamara, a SLEEPER? “THE” Alvin Kamara, who has dominated leagues for almost all of the past half-decade? Yes, Kamara won’t play the first three games of the 2023 season; we all know that. But the industry is acting like he’s going to miss half the calendar year with a current ECR of RB27. Let’s not forget that Kamara was still the RB14 from Week 5 onward last season and saw increases from the previous year in games played, receptions, targets, receiving yards, and yards per carry. Newly-signed Saints QB Derek Carr has a sweet spot for peppering his RBs with passes, too, just look at what he did feeding Josh Jacobs a career-high 64 targets last season. Kamara is an absolute bargain in the sixth/seventh round of your fantasy football drafts, with true top-five RB potential to boot. Remember, Kamara was THE RB5 in 2021, less than two full seasons ago. Think about that, and adjust your draft strategies accordingly, especially given that the Saints have THE easiest schedule of all 32 NFL teams according to both PFF and Sharp Football Analysis.”
– Christopher Dell (Betting Predators)
“Khalil Herbert should break out in a big way! In 2022, Herbert was number one in the percentage of runs that went for 10 or more yards – he was also second in yards after contact per attempt and third in missed tackles forced per carry. He’s been an incredibly efficient runner when given the chance, and now he’ll have the easiest path to opportunity in his career. ”
– Alfredo Brown (Footballguys)
“RB Khalil Herbert has a great chance to be the steal of the draft this year, stepping into the RB1 role for a Bears team that finished third in the NFL in rushing last season. Herbert has shown plenty of upside in his young career, including leading all running backs with a 5.7 yards per carry average in 2022 (minimum 100 attempts) despite not giving up a fumble. Now atop the depth chart in Chicago, Herbert is a safe bet for 200+ touches and 8+ total touchdowns as a potential three-down back. For a player being taken on average as the RB33 in fantasy drafts, it is hard not to like Herbert’s chances to return top-24 value at the position in 2023.”
– Dan Larocca (RotoBaller)
“Antonio Gibson is a converted WR, and it seems like he’s FINALLY set to actually be utilized in a receiving role. Even in a limited role, Gibson has run 27 routes and received five targets through two preseason games. Snap share doesn’t even matter, as Jerick McKinnon finished as a top 24 RB with only a 46% snap share (72 targets). If Gibson approaches that (remember, Eric Bienemy is now his OC), he’s a screaming value.”
– Jamie Calandro (Football Diehards)
“Antonio Gibson’s current half-PPR ADP has him as a low-end RB3, but I expect him to easily finish as an RB2 in 2023. He was actually a low-end RB1 in half-PPR leagues in his last two fully healthy seasons (2021-22). While Brian Robinson is clearly the early-down back, Gibson has the pass-catching role all to himself this year with J.D. McKissic out of the picture. Expect him to top the career-high 46 receptions he hauled in last season. ”
– Justin Sablich (5th Down Fantasy)
“Brian Robinson is set to continue his late-season success from his rookie season. In his final five games of 2022, he averaged 4.48 yards per attempt and, more importantly, carried the ball 19.4 times per game. Already the clear 1A in Washington’s backfield along with Antonio Gibson, the only limitation is a reduced role as a receiver relative to other lead backs. In the preseason, new OC Eric Bienemy is utilizing Robinson as a pass-catcher, including 4 targets in the first half of the most recent preseason game. Robinson is a potential top-15 fantasy RB that is being drafted as the RB33 on average.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
“Brian Robinson has been all but forgotten after what many believe was a disappointing rookie season. By his own admission, he never felt right following the offseason robbery attempt that resulted in two gunshots to his leg. Now fully healthy, his early-down role for the Commanders is unquestioned, and he should factor more as a receiver as well, with Antonio Gibson being moved around the formation to better use his skillset. For his current ranking, Brian Robinson makes for a fine volume-based, value-on sleeper.”
– Jeff Haverlack (Dynasty League Football)
“Tyjae Spears: Spears has locked down the RB2 role behind Derrick Henry, who’s totaled nearly 1,900 career touches. We’ve seen flashes of the rookie’s high-end burst this preseason — most notably on a 33-yard TD run. While Tennessee’s O-line needs work, an upgraded WR corps should help support RB2 value in any games Henry misses. If Spears’ RB59 ADP holds up, there’s no risk to stashing him as an RB5.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
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Wide Receiver Sleepers
Of the names above, who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy sleeper and why?
“A shoulder injury sidelined JuJu Smith-Schuster for the majority of the 2021 season, which derailed an otherwise positive trajectory for the 5th-year WR after putting up almost 100 receptions on 128 targets in 2020. Last year, Smith-Schuster finished as WR29 on a one-year deal with the Chiefs, and he has since found his way into a 3-year, $33 million deal with the Patriots, where he is the apparent WR1. Even so, the current ECR has JuJu at just WR46. Jakobi Meyers was the previous WR1 in New England, and his last two seasons resulted in finishes at WR33 and WR34. It may not be pretty, but it’s definitely in the cards for the more talented Smith-Schuster to have a comeback year and finish as a top-20 WR this season as the primary target for Mac Jones in a lackluster offense.”
– David Biggs (Drink Five)
“Odell Beckham Jr. – Many fantasy analysts have written off Odell, but I think that’s a mistake. When healthy, Odell Beckham Jr. is one of the most talented WRs in the league, period. And I think he’s healthy now. He’s also paired up with a Ravens’ offense which should score a ton of points with Lamar Jackson back at the helm. With a current Expert Consensus Ranking of WR 54, Odell Beckham is dirt cheap and a potential league winner.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
“George Pickens – Something that doesn’t get discussed enough in football circles is the development of specific positions by team. The Pittsburgh Steelers thrive in cultivating top wide receiver talent — Diontae Johnson, Antonio Brown, and Hines Ward have a combined twelve Pro Bowl and nine All-Pro selections — and George Pickens is in line for that same type of surge. Pickens actually tallied more receiving yards in his first season than any of the three aforementioned players did in theirs, but the key is the trajectory of a franchise that has historically led to excellent growth for wide receivers. Pickens only needs a modest increase of 25 percent from last year’s numbers to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards — on 105 targets for 65 receptions. His ceiling is much higher.”
– Mario Mergola (Sporfolio)
“George Pickens was one of the most physically gifted wide receivers in the 2022 NFL Draft, but what he lacked entering the league was an extensive route tree. Pickens was a fly pattern receiver on a team that did not do well throwing the ball deep. Pickens is a more polished route runner entering his second year, and Kenny Pickett is throwing the ball with more confidence after an up-and-down rookie season. Both of these players have the potential to break out in 2023, and a more wide-open passing game could make Pickens this year’s biggest fantasy sleeper. ”
– Derek Lofland (FantasyPros)
“George Pickens is on the precipice of absolutely exploding, both as an NFL receiver and one of the flashiest players in fantasy football. For starters, Pickens is heading into his second pro season, which means he is already primed to break out. Furthermore, he has the physicality, athleticism, and run-blocking skills to get on the field. It also helps that the AFC North won’t challenge him with a particularly tough slate of cornerbacks. Everything is falling into place for Pickens to break out and show the NFL that he can be an alpha receiver. He should lead all Steelers wide receivers in snaps, targets, receptions, and yardage, and finishing as a top-10 fantasy receiver is not out of the question.”
– Andersen Pickard (Prime Time Sports Talk)
“What attracted scouts to George Pickens ahead of last year’s NFL Draft had to be his body control and ability to manipulate himself to get into position to catch the football. Acrobatic catches and high-pointing the football are part and parcel of Pickens’s talent. Looking ahead to 2023, Kenny Pickett is bound to have positive regression in his touchdown totals. Furthermore, by the end of the year, it will be clear that Pickens is the leader of this receiving corps over Diontae Johnson.”
– Matt De Lima (The Game Day)
“Marquise Brown’s ADP and ECR have shocked me. With Hopkins gone, Hollywood is left as the top dog in a Cardinal offense that figures to be in a lot of negative game scripts and will return a healthy Kyler Murray at some point. He’s flashed his potential, posting target shares of 26.7% in 2021 and 23.7% in 2022 (as the secondary option in ARI) and efficiency, evidenced by a 5.7% career TD%.”
– Jacob White (Gridiron Experts)
“The biggest fantasy sleeper of the year will be Zay Flowers. The Ravens have sent a clear message this offseason. They want to have Lamar pass the ball more. Flowers has shown in training camp and the preseason he is electric with the ball and can get open on any given play, and his path to be the top WR on his team is clear. With his playmaking ability and a clear opportunity ahead of him, Flowers should continue the trend of rookie WRs being great for fantasy managers willing to take the shot on them in drafts.”
– Dylan Licciardo (FF Gamers)
“Zay Flowers is my sleeper of the year in 2023. The former Boston College Eagle showed out at the Shrine Bowl and, as a result, was selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Baltimore Ravens. Aside from tight end Marc Andrews, the Ravens have a bunch of question marks at the wideout position. Flowers is exceptionally slippery, has quick/effective routes, and has a knack for tracking down the deep ball. ”
– Mason “Mase” Riney (Fantasy Six Pack)
“Zay Flowers typically comes off the board around WR40-WR45, but he may well be the Ravens’ best wide receiver in 2023, and I think he’s capable of a fantasy finish in the WR2 range. Flowers’ performance in training camp has drawn rave reviews. Lamar Jackson has given him the nickname “joystick.” Flowers runs crisp routes, has good speed, is explosive after the catch, and fares remarkably well on contested catches for a smaller receiver. Rookie WRs with first-round NFL Draft capital are good fantasy bets. We saw it last year with Chris Olave (ADP: WR44) and Garrett Wilson (WR49). We saw it in 2021 with Ja’Marr Chase (WR26) and Jaylen Waddle (WR46) and in 2020 with CeeDee Lamb (WR38) and Justin Jefferson (WR49). Flowers is a worthy target in fantasy drafts.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“Zay Flowers will have a big rookie year in Baltimore and be in consideration for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Flowers will excel in Todd Monken’s offense and will form an instant connection with Lamar Jackson. Expect to see him lined up all over the field and even the backfield for the Ravens. Flowers is a threat to take it the distance anytime he touches the ball. ”
– Justin Fuhr (Pro Football Mania)
“Zay Flowers comes in as WR42 in a new-look offense that is going to put more focus on the aerial attack. Flowers may have the typical slow start that most rookies face but should acclimate quickly. His football IQ is above average and he plays bigger than his stature. Once he has a firm grasp on the offense and some budding chemistry with Lamar Jackson, Flowers has high-end WR2 appeal as an integral part of the best receiving core Jackson has worked with thus far. ”
– John Hesterman (Dynasty League Football)
“Drake London, still WR1 of his class and Top 10 overall selection pedigree, had a remarkably successful rookie campaign when looking at its totality. Sure, we would have loved more, and yes, it can be argued where else the ball was supposed to go, but having the opportunity and delivering on it don’t always go hand in hand. Atlanta will have a very different look on offense this year, headed by a commitment to Desmond Ridder at QB. With him under center, Drake London accounted for 31.3% of targets, 34.2% of completions, and 47.0% of yards in the Falcons aerial attack. It equates to 9 targets/6 receptions/83 yards per game, or 153 targets/106 receptions/1,415 yards prorated over a full 17-game season. Whatever he does in the TD department would just be a bonus, as that stat line alone already surpasses his current ADP value. Atlanta regains Kyle Pitts and adds Bijan Robinson, but they did zero to upgrade at WR. It’s London’s world, and as the Drake of one name would say, “You know you gotta stick by me.”
– Andy Singleton (Expand The Boxscore)
“Mike Evans, after nine consecutive seasons of over 1,00 yards, people are now writing him off due to Tom Brady’s retirement. In my opinion, the Bucs will be awful. This screams lots of playing catch-up, lots of passing, and lots of garbage time fantasy points. Regardless of the QB under center, Evans is a lock to be a Top-20 WR in 2023.”
– Elvin Ryan (FantasyPros)
“Mike Evans is being seriously underappreciated. I don’t really care who’s throwing him the ball. He could EASILY finish as a WR2 and is being drafted outside the top 30. I know expectations are low in Tampa with Mayfield and Trask, but the disrespect toward Evans has gone too far… Get a 1,000-yard WR until he proves he is not one.”
– Francisco (Chato) Romero (Estadio Fantasy)
“Chiefs WR Skyy Moore. The second-year WR has locked up the team’s starting slot role on the Chiefs’ high-powered offense. Moore saw 6 targets in every game where he ran at least 10 slot routes last season. He also had at least two receptions in five games where he ran at least 7 slot routes. Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster averaged 13.5 slot routes per game last season. Therefore, don’t count Moore out quite yet after an underwhelming rookie season, with him coming out as an early declaration from a smaller football program at Western Michigan. Recall that Moore ranked second in college football in his final year in yards per route run from the slot. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Michael Pittman may have the best value in 2023, after being overhyped in the months leading to the 2022 season. He did not offer the return on investment of the fringe WR1 that everyone had hoped for, but instead ended up as a low-end WR2. He is currently the last WR1 off of the board at WR33, and the opportunity to be able to draft a wide receiver who amassed an average of 135 targets the past two years in the 7th round of drafts is a true steal. There is a reasonable fear with the addition of a mobile rookie quarterback, but Pittman is no stranger to sub-par QB play as he has seen a myriad of quarterbacks over his 3-year career. This year the Colts draw the 3rd easiest strength of schedule, and Pittman should feast on some of the league’s worst secondaries.”
– Josh Hall (IDP Army)
“Jalin Hyatt has drawn comparisons to former Eagles star DeSean Jackson. He gives the Giants’ offense missing qualities that no one else on the roster can replicate. The rookie is an explosive downfield target with a true TD upside. Hyatt will quickly emerge as a Giants fan and fantasy favorite for those who are nabbing him in the double-figure rounds of drafts. ”
– Scott Engel (RotoBaller)
“Don’t forget about Tyler Lockett‘s equally disrespected twin, Brandin Cooks. Maybe he doesn’t finish inside the top 20 like he has every year he’s played at least 15 games, but I don’t think he’s done being fantasy-relevant yet. I trust that Cooks’s surrounding cast was more to blame than his own decline in 2022. Willing to find out either way at his current ADP.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
“Targeting Jahan Dotson was already a top draft priority before the news of Terry McLaurin‘s turf toe injury in Week Two of the preseason. The chemistry between Sam Howell and Dotson is special, and I expect a huge leap in production for the second-year wideout, expecting him to average 7-8 targets per game with breakout potential. The Commanders will be playing from behind in most games which will elevate the downfield opportunities for Jahan, who ranked 9th overall with a 14.9 yard per reception in 2022 for receivers with 35+ catches. Out of all the 2022 rookie receivers, Dotson was tied for most touchdowns with Christian Watson with seven in just twelve games. Make sure to leave your draft with him on your roster.”
– Todd D Clark (The Fantasy Fix)
“Jahan Dotson is primed for a breakout season. He gets a new offensive coordinator who was a part of some of the best offenses of all time and likely an upgrade at quarterback with Sam Howell starting from day one. Remember, Dotson missed five games because of injury and was still 51st overall in fantasy receiver scoring. He showed his huge potential down the stretch, having double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games. Dotson seems a great fit for the new offense and should flourish in year two. ”
– Jeff Paur (RTSports)
“It seems that Jahan Dotson has caught Sam Howell’s eye, and even though we get fooled by the preseason numbers of 5 receptions on 7 targets for 76 yards. Dotson ended the 2022 year strong, and his final 5 games had a split of 21 catches, 344 yards, and 3 touchdowns. With Terry McLaurian perhaps missing some time and new Offensive Coordinator Eric Bieniemy, he will be the one for the year 2 breakout. ”
– Dan Yanotchko (EDSFootball)
“My biggest sleeper this season is Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson. Dotson was impressive in his rookie season even though he had three different quarterbacks throwing to him. His rookie season started with a bang, with two touchdowns in his first NFL game, and he scored two more touchdowns across his next three games. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury halted his rookie season after four weeks, and he did not return until Week 10. Dotson flashed his potential during Weeks 15-18 when he led the Commanders in target share (23.8%) and produced WR12 numbers during that span. He finished sixth among all receivers with 2.14 fantasy points per target. I look for an even better second season with the Commanders working hard to improve their offense, adding former Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy to call the plays and naming Sam Howell their Week 1 starting quarterback. Dotson has looked like a fantasy star this preseason. And with Terry McLaurin nursing a toe injury, it opens the door for Dotson to be Washington’s WR1. Dotson is being picked as the 35th WR, but I would gladly pounce on him to be my WR2 as he continues to flash his breakout potential in an emerging Commanders offense. ”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)
“I’m on board with a big rebound for the Denver Broncos, so I’m higher on most pieces of Denver’s offense. In particular, second-round rookie WR Marvin Mims will open the season as the club’s No. 3 wideout. Mims is a speedy deep threat with superb ball skills and has already flashed chemistry with Russell Wilson in the preseason. Tim Patrick was able to post WR43 overall numbers (51/746/6) in that role back in 2020. With Sean Payton at the helm, I expect Mims to hit the ground running and far outplay his current ADP. ”
– Jody Smith (FullTime Fantasy)
“K.J. Osborn has seen at least 80 targets and has caught five or more touchdowns the past two seasons. While rookie Jordan Addison will help fill the 107 target void left by veteran Adam Thielen, Osborn produced the aforementioned numbers with Thielen on the roster. This is an offense that should throw over 700 times in 2023, and if Osbron only gets 15% of that (just one percent higher than his rate last season), then he will see over 100 targets, the most of his career. He is a safe bet late in drafts.”
– Ryan Larrison (Fantasy Football For The People)
“Diontae Johnson is the sleeper you want to be drafting. He led the open score on ESPN’s Wide Receiver analytics and grading with a score of 99 (50 is the league average). He also didn’t score a single touchdown last season, which won’t happen again. Now Pickett is acclimated to the league, and Johnson will get better-quality targets and return to the mean in terms of touchdowns. Don’t sleep on Diontae.”
– Adam Murfet (5 Yard Rush)
“I expect Jordan Addison to walk in as a rookie and be productive right off the bat. He has the benefit of playing across from the best wide receiver in the game, Justin Jefferson, and is playing with an established quarterback in Kirk Cousins. We’ve seen Cousins and the Vikings’ offense support multiple fantasy-relevant wide receivers, and I expect that to be the case in 2023. His ability as a route runner will be on full display when he’s oftentimes matched up against single coverage. Currently ranked as WR37 in the ECR, look for Addison to finish as a top-24 option in 2023. ”
– Anthony Corrente (The Dynasty Drive)
“WR Trey Palmer. Already has chemistry with Mayfield. Likely to win the outside receiver starting role. Will consistently get the CB 2/3 and has shown the ability to win. Potential for 60/700/8.”
– Robert Mattox (FF Faceoff)
“Cleveland’s passing game is in for a big season, and Elijah Moore will be a big part of it. Yes, last year was ugly. But he flashed as a rookie, ranking third among WRs in PPR points during a six-week stretch in the middle of the season. And he looked like an excellent prospect coming into the league, averaging 102.2 receiving yards and 0.7 TDs per game over his final two college seasons. Now in a functional offense with a high-end QB, Moore is ready to break out.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)
“Davis was drafted early last season and fell short of expectations as he played through a high ankle sprain that clearly hindered his play. He’s healthy, and the Bills didn’t add much at wide receiver, indicating they believe Davis will be better. He plays in a good offense and is way cheaper than last season.”
– Adam Ronis (Fantasy Alarm)
Check out more Fantasy Football Sleepers
Tight End Sleepers
Of the names above, who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy sleeper and why?
“I’m extremely bullish on what Juwan Johnson can be in another unexciting year at tight end outside of the elite tier. Johnson started to break out towards the end of last season, ranking as the TE10 in Half PPR PPG for the second half of the season. From Week 6 on (once Johnson became a full-time starter), he ran a route on 66.6% of New Orleans’ dropbacks, which was good for 18th among tight ends in that span. Then there’s the Taysom Hill of it all. But he’ll be turning 33 entering this season and doesn’t compete for the same types of touches that Johnson does. And miss me with Jimmy Graham coming in and having any sort of impact on this team.”
– Sam Hoppen (FantasyPros)
“Juwan Johnson isn’t getting enough respect as the TE18 in the ECR after finishing last year as the TE11. He led the Saints in receiving touchdowns while finishing top three in receiving yards and targets. The former college wide receiver finished third in receiving touchdowns among tight ends last year (seven), only behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle. More importantly, he has already built a strong connection with Derek Carr. After throwing to Darren Waller for the past few years, don’t be surprised if Carr turns Johnson into a slightly watered-down version of Waller this season.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“I’ll go for the TE because that’s the battle. Last year I liked Evan Engram; this year, it’s Juwan Johnson. The Saints have brought in one of the best TE coaches in recent times (Clancy Barone), and Derek Carr has shown a tendency to go to his TEs. With Chris Olave the clear lead receiver, there isn’t truly a lot else on this depth chart- especially with Alvin Kamara set to miss the start of the season. Could he flame out? Sure. But currently, Johnson is free in drafts. ”
– Richard King (King Fantasy Sports)
“If you don’t get one of the top TEs, look no further than Juwan Johnson, who’s free in drafts as your last pick. He’s a playmaker in an offense that will be without Alvin Kamara for the first 3 weeks and devoid of pass catchers outside of Chris Olave. Yes, Michael Thomas is back, but he hasn’t looked right since coming back from injury. Thomas played a few games last season, no games in 2021, and half the season in 2020 (7 games). Juwan Johnson is the second receiving target in this offense through the first 3 weeks, at least, and Derek Carr will look for him in the red zone quite a bit (like he did with Darren Waller). A great pick, especially if you punt the position.”
– Tal Malachovsky (The Fantasy Scout)
“Gerald Everett received a new offensive coordinator in 2023 with Kellen Moore. Kellen Moore loves to be aggressive. He loves to push it downfield, and he loves to utilize the tight end. Gerald Everett possesses a higher-than-average athletic profile, with amazing height and weight markers being reached, and should be the secret weapon within this Los Angeles Chargers offense. ”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)
“In a world where we’re all looking for any TE production we can muster up, there’s a player you can nab in the last rounds of your draft that could be a weekly starter. There is plenty of room for Dallas Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson to step into a decent target share. Dalton Schultz never had fewer than 89 targets per season when he took over as the starter. He’s now gone, but Dak Prescott will not suddenly stop throwing to the TE position. If you remember back to the Blake Jarwin vs. Schultz debates after Jason Witten left Dallas, not many thought much of Schultz until he earned the TE1 job and thrived with his newfound target volume. I think we’ll see a similar story with Ferguson.”
– Jaime Eisner (The Draft Network)
“Without a doubt, the biggest sleeper for this year is Jake Ferguson, Tight End from Dallas Cowboys. I really don’t know how people are sleeping on this guy. Last year Jake received 19 of 22 targets, with 2 touchdowns. Without Dalton Schultz, Dallas has 89 vacated targets on the position, and who are the other options on this roster? No one. Be aware of NFL’s Fergie Time!”
– Guilherme Gianni (Fantasy Futebolista)
“In regard to looking for a sleeper in fantasy football, finding a player well beyond the consensus that can become a staple in your lineup sometimes leads to fantasy championship-winning moves. For me, I am looking at the tight end position, and that player is none other than Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson. With the departure of Dalton Schultz and his 89 targets, there was a void left in a very meaningful position for the Cowboys’ passing attack. Over the previous two seasons, Schultz has ranked inside the Top 10 in fantasy points per game and has averaged 96 targets and 67 receptions in that timeframe. During much of the summer, Ferguson has been a forgotten man in the offense with the addition of Brandin Cooks and the drafting of Luke Schoonmaker. But as we have seen through training camp, he has been very impressive and heavily involved during his snaps in preseason action. If the Cowboys’ offense maintains itself as one of the more consistent ones in the NFL in 2023 and Ferguson can achieve a similar target share to Dalton Schultz, he is a player that you can get for free in drafts currently that will become your locked-in TE1 in fantasy lineups. ”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)
“My answer to this has changed in the last few weeks, but I have come around on Jake Ferguson. Ferguson has really taken the reins of the starting tight end role in Dallas. That position has been targeted by Dak Prescott an average of 123 times over the past four seasons. The lead tight end has averaged over 90 targets a season. For an undrafted player at a very shallow position, Ferguson is worth a late-round dart throw.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
“Jake Ferguson. Only once in Dak Prescott’s seven NFL seasons has his top tight end not finished inside the top 13 at his position in half-PPR (TE9, TE3, TE12, TE12, TE20, TE10, TE13). Considering the names have changed over the years (aging Jason Witten, Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz), Prescott has earned his reputation for leaning on tight ends (targeted the position on 25.1 percent of his throws in 2022). The difference between the aforementioned tight ends and Ferguson is that Ferguson offers a bit more after the catch. Even better, Schultz saw no fewer than 14 red zone targets over the last three seasons, so there is touchdown upside if Ferguson earns the same kind of trust near the goal line that Schultz did. Ferguson currently goes as the TE33, but he has low-end TE1 upside.”
– Doug Orth (FFToday)
“Jake Ferguson. Ferguson is entering his sophomore season and is expected to be the starting tight end for the Dallas Cowboys. Prescott has always been one to target tight ends at an over 20% target share, and with Dalton Schultz now in Houston, many of those targets are going to go to Ferguson. With a current ADP of TE28, Ferguson has the potential to be one of this year’s biggest steals at what is generally the weakest and most unpredictable position.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)
“Of this group, Chigoziem Okonkwo is the one I’m most excited about, especially considering the threshold for becoming a weekly starting tight end is lower. He only had a 30.3% route participation but was able to rank 1st among all TEs in YPRR (3.26) and 2nd among all TEs in TPRR (33.3%). I’m expecting natural growth and progression as a player in year two, along with a nice bump in route participation, to lead him to a very nice season.”
– Robert Norton (Last Word On Sports)
“Luke Musgrave has TE1 upside, yet he’s being undrafted in most leagues. Rookie tight ends rarely have success and find it hard to get on the field due to their poor blocking. Musgrave is different, though. In any other year, he would be a possible 1st round pick, and the Packers have clearly shown they’re willing to break from their old ways and give him an every-down role as Josiah Deguara shifts to fullback. If you waited very late at tight end, pick up Musgrave in the last round and save yourself the stress.”
– Ben Wasley (The Fantasy First Down)
“Has to be Dalton Kincaid. He’s currently ranked as TE15, and I currently have him as TE8 behind Evan Engram and in front of Pat Freiermuth. Kincaid has been exceptional in camp, having multiple standout days. He’s lined up in the slot and the backfield which just shows his versatility and should allow him to be on the field regularly. The Bills currently have a rotation going at the slot position with Diggs, Harty, Shakir, and Dalton all lining up there, which bodes well for the tight end.”
– Matt Olson (32 Beat Writers)
“Cole Kmet. What if Justin Fields is actually an improved passer? Not all of those throws will be going DJ Moore‘s way. Cole Kmet has shown flashes over the past few seasons that he could become a really good tight end in this league, and in Year 4, with a new contract, he could make that leap. The tight end landscape is so barren, why not take the chance with Kmet.”
– Craig Phillips (FF Prophet)
“Hayden Hurst has spent all of draft season going outside TE2 range but is well-positioned to hit your starting lineup on a weekly basis. The Panthers gave him $7 million a year on a three-year deal in a market that gave much less to Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki. Hurst cracked the top 20 in fantasy points per game last year in a crowded Bengals offense with just 2 TDs. He delivered a top-10 season with the 2020 Falcons. Now he’ll share the field with an iffy crew of WRs in a TE-friendly offense. Grab Bryce Young‘s security blanket at the end of your draft and solve a position that will confound most of your league mates (especially in PPR).”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)
Check out more Fantasy Football Sleepers
Check out more Fantasy Football Sleepers
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