Tuesday’s news couldn’t possibly have been worse for current or prospective Jonathan Taylor investors. Taylor has been displeased with the Colts’ unwillingness to renegotiate his rookie contract and was given permission to seek a trade. He wasn’t traded before the Colts’ team-imposed Tuesday deadline for a deal, and the Colts have placed Taylor on the regular-season PUP list, so he won’t be eligible to play the first four weeks of the season, even if a trade materializes.

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Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Value

Taylor’s fantasy value obviously takes a major hit.

Even with Taylor at odds with the Colts’ front office and not practicing with the team in training camp, fantasy managers drafting in early and mid-August were rationalizing that the star running back was worth a late-second-round or early-third-round selection based on the possibility of a trade or a reconciliation with the Colts. This was, after all, a player who scored 32 touchdowns in his first 32 NFL games and led the league in rushing in 2021. Taylor’s 2022 season was a disappointment, but a high-ankle sprain was at least partly to blame.

Now, Taylor can be considered no more than a high-end RB2, and even that heavily discounted price might be perceived by many drafters as being far too steep. Taylor will miss the first four games of the season, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be suiting up for the Colts or any other team in Week 5.

Taylor’s most devoted Kool-Aid drinkers might be willing to draft him in the mid-to-late fourth round of a 12-team draft. A lot of drafters won’t touch him inside the first five rounds. There’s still potential for a rewarding payoff, as Taylor is one of the best pure runners in the league and could conceivably step into a true workhorse role in Week 5. But the 2023 outlook for Taylor is currently as murky as the waters of Loch Ness.

Even as an unabashed Taylor enthusiast, I can still rank JT no higher than RB13, No. 43 overall.

Current Indianapolis Backfield’s Fantasy Value

Deon Jackson | Evan Hull | Zack Moss

With Taylor unavailable to the Colts for the first four weeks of the season, fantasy managers who still have drafts coming up have an incentive to do some Indy RB speculating. Deon Jackson started the final preseason game for Indianapolis. Rookie Evan Hull, a fifth-round draft pick from Northwestern, had 55 receptions in his final college season and could be the primary passing-down back. (He might even have a more substantial role than that.) Zach Moss is recovering from a broken arm but might start upon his return. It’s not clear if Moss will be available for Week 1, but he’s expected back soon.

It’s possible that one or more of these backs provide tangible fantasy value for the first four weeks and perhaps beyond. It’s also possible that Taylor comes back in Week 5 and turns their value to dust or that there’s not even early-season fantasy value here because these peripheral RBs could be thrown into a value-killing time-share arrangement. I have Jackson ranked RB56, Hull RB64 and Moss RB73.

Impact on Miami’s Running Backs

De’Von Achane | Raheem Mostert | Jeff Wilson

There’s one final angle to the Taylor saga. If Taylor was to be traded, the Dolphins were the favorites to get him. With Taylor staying put (at least for now), people who have fantasy drafts in the coming days can continue to invest in Miami RBs De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson without fear of Taylor showing up in Week 1 and marginalizing everyone else in the Dolphins’ RB room. Taylor could still end up in Miami this season, but that seems less likely than it was just a few days ago, and he wouldn’t show up until October at the earliest.

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