It’s important to know who to target and who to pass on when it comes to your fantasy football draft. To get a better sense of players to avoid and others to reach for, use our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and compare them to a player’s average draft position (ADP). Players that are going higher in ADP versus ECR are likely those that you want to reconsider at their current cost. On the flipside, players that experts are higher on versus ADP are those that could be worth reaching for, or at least targeting at their current ADP.

And you can use our expert accuracy rankings to help determine which experts to select when you are building your custom fantasy football draft cheat sheets.

Here’s a look at players Andrew Erickson, Derek Brown, Pat Fitzmaurice and Ryan Wormeli are targeting at their current ADP.

• AFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
• NFC Busts & League Winners: East
• Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
• Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

AFC East

James Cook (RB – BUF)

This back is an explosive play waiting to happen that excels in the passing game while operating in one of the league’s best offenses. I’m describing Jahmyr Gibbs, right? Nope. This is the upside resume for James Cook. Cook is the easy discount version of Gibbs and one of the best values in drafts. Last season he ranked 28th in yards after contact per attempt, first in breakaway percentage, and 19th in elusive rating (per PFF). Damien Harris and Latavius Murray are looming goal-line sloths, but Cook has the talent to own the passing downs and eat into the early downs. Cook ranked ninth in yards per route run and sixth in targets per route run last season (minimum 30 targets). If the Bills unleash Cook in a weekly 14-16 touch role, he can be a high-end RB2 weekly.
– Derek Brown

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

Receivers Tyreek Hill (ADP: WR4) and Jaylen Waddle (WR11) are expensive but fairly priced. Tua Tagovailoa (QB11) might be a value if he stays healthy all year, but his concussion history makes him a risk. The Miami tight ends hold little fantasy appeal. We’re left looking for value in the Dolphins’ backfield, and third-round rookie De’Von Achane (RB41) offers it. Achane has blazing 4.32 speed, and while he’s small (5-9. 188), he averaged 23.2 touches a game for Texas A&M last year. Achane is a perfect fit for Miami head coach Mike McDaniel’s wide-zone running scheme and is more explosive than veterans Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Mike Gesicki (TE – NE)

Mike Gesicki was marginalized in Miami last season but is now with the Patriots, a team that values its tight ends. Gesicki is one of the more athletic TEs in the league, and now he’ll be playing for new Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, who was Gesicki’s college coach at Penn State. At 27, Gesicki is in the prime of his career, and he’s only two years removed from a 73-catch, 780-yard season. He’s currently being drafted as a low-end TE2 or high-end TE3, but Gesicki offers a low-end TE1 ceiling.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

Breece Hall was averaging 15.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game before a torn ACL prematurely ended his rookie season. Over a four-game stretch from Week 3 to Week 6, where Hall had at least a 50% snap share in every game, he averaged a little over 120 yards from scrimmage and scored three touchdowns. Hall has an ADP of RB10 and typically comes off the board in the late second round or early third round in 12-team drafts. The Jets put Hall on their training camp PUP list, which should keep his price reasonable as we enter fantasy draft season. Assuming Hall stays on track to play in Week 1, he’s a value as a do-it-all back with high-end RB1 upside.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

AFC North

Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)

Zay Flowers spent four seasons at Boston College simply dominating as the team’s best wide receiver. He posted a career 33% dominator rating – the highest in the draft class. His senior year was truly special as the 5-foot-9, 182-pound wideout racked up 78 receptions for 1,077 yards and 12 receiving TDs. Per Sports Info Solution, Flowers finished 3rd in the class in unique routes run, 6th in target share (30%), and third in deep route percentage (49%). With first-round draft capital and projected inside/slot usage that will work well with Lamar Jackson…don’t count out Flowers emerging as Baltimore’s WR1 at a WR48 price tag. The best ability is availability… which has not been the case for either Beckham Jr. or Bateman.
– Andrew Erickson

Irv Smith Jr. (TE – CIN)

Smith Jr. is dirt cheap exposure to touchdown equity in one of the NFL’s best offenses. Last year Cincinnati was ninth in red zone scoring attempts per game. At a position with a low threshold for weekly starter viability, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Smith Jr. finishes the season as a low-end TE1. We saw Hayden Hurst nearly pull off this feat before injury sunk him. In Weeks 1-12 (before his calf strain), Hurst to TE12 in fantasy points per game. If you’re punting tight end down the road in drafts, Smith Jr. should be in your queue in the later rounds.
– Derek Brown

Elijah Moore (WR – CLE)

As a rookie in 2021, Elijah Moore had a six-game stretch in which he had 34 catches for 459 yards and five touchdowns. He was the WR4 in PPR fantasy scoring over that span behind only Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen and Cooper Kupp. Moore didn’t an out last year and grew unhappy that QB Zach Wilson wasn’t targeting him enough. The 23-year-old Moore now finds himself in Cleveland, where he gets a QB upgrade with Deshaun Watson. Moore”s ADP is WR47, leaving ample room for profit if this former second-round draft pick recaptures the form he flashed as a rookie.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)

Diontae Johnson is slated for a massive bounce-back campaign. He didn’t score last season – likely a fluke – and that’s being held against him, even though DJ ranks: 5th in total targets (460), 7th in receptions (281) and 9th in target share (25%) over the past three seasons. Johnson’s ability to command targets based on his 28% target share and seventh-ranked 137 targets in 2022 suggests he is a prime candidate for positive regression in many facets. His combined downfield targets and red-zone targets were the most of any player not to score in 2022. Those trends don’t tend to carry over from year-to-year. Buy-low on the WR15 in expected fantasy points per game from last season. His WR30 ADP is insulting.
– Andrew Erickson

AFC South

Nico Collins (WR – HOU)

With an ADP of WR59, Nico Collins has attractive profit potential. Expected to be the Texans’ starting X receiver, Collins averaged 9.0 targets in the four games he played after Houston’s bye week last season, and he has an excellent chance to lead the Texans in targets in 2023. Collins is reportedly developing a strong rapport with rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The third-year receiver is poised for a breakthrough season and offers appealing value at a rummage-sale price.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)

The Colts’ rookie quarterback is my best bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and to break out in Year 1. The former Gator brings an exceptional level of athleticism to the table, and with the right coaching staff, his sky-high potential can be fully realized. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him secure the Day 1 starting position, especially with Gardner Minshew as his only competition. Even if the Colts don’t have a strong real-life record, Richardson’s rushing production and off-script playmaking will put him over the top. At Florida, Richardson averaged 60 rushing yards per game. Also, Richardson’s extremely low pressure-to-sack rate (sub-10%, first in the 2023 QB Class) further highlights his off-script playmaking. With passers being pushed up the board more aggressively than in recent years, Richardson as the QB15 gives late-round QB drafters a chance to compete.
– Andrew Erickson

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)

There aren’t any screaming fantasy values in Jacksonville. Wide receivers Calvin Ridley (WR19) and Christian Kirk (WR30) are either fairly priced or slightly overpriced. Evan Engram (TE8) and Zay Jones (WR62) have uncertain target outlooks with Ridley and Kirk around. In the backfield, Travis Etienne (RB13) and Tank Bigsby (RB52) are reasonably priced. The best fantasy value on the Jags is probably Trevor Lawrence (QB8), who had a breakthrough season last year under Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson and still has considerable room for growth. Lawrence isn’t cheap, but he could certainly finish as a top-5 quarterback and return a nice profit.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Ryan Tannehill (QB – MIA)

Ryan Tannehill is only one season removed from a QB14 finish. He’s being left for dead in drafts which is honestly insane. This is arguably the most receiving talent he’s had to throw to during his tenure in Tennessee with Treylon Burks, DeAndre Hopkins, and Chigoziem Okonokwo. Tannehill’s fantasy performance last year might have been painful, but his accuracy metrics clearly show he is not over the hill. Last season he ranked top-12 in red zone accuracy, deep ball accuracy, and under-pressure accuracy rating. Tannehill is, at worst, a strong QB2 with streaming ability, but he also possesses low-end QB1 upside.
– Derek Brown

AFC West

Marvin Mims (WR – DEN)

Marvin Mims is being drafted outside the top 70 WRs after being drafted in the 2nd round. The Broncos traded up to select him despite them not having a glaring need for a WR. He looks like the perfect moonball target for Russell Wilson after ranking 3rd in the FBS in receiving yards and fifth in targets on 20-plus air-yard throws last year. At just 21 years old, Mims has the big-play ability to make a splash in Year 1 as the first overall pick for Denver Broncos in the newly established Sean Payton era. Keep in mind trading up for a skill position player is not out of the norm for Payton. He traded up for Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks and Alvin Kamara in previous drafts with the Saints. Maybe you’ve heard of them?
– Andrew Erickson

Skyy Moore (WR – KC)

That sound you heard was Skyy Moore zooming back up draft boards this year. Moore is a great value right now, but we’ll see how long that lasts with the news that Kadarius Toney is already dealing with a knee injury that is set to sideline him possibly into the regular season. Moore’s playing time was a bummer last year. Many will dismiss him as an outright bust and question his talent, but talent isn’t the problem. Last year during the regular season, Moore ranked sixth in YAC per reception as he forced seven missed tackles with just 22 receptions. With a clear path to snaps in 2023, Moore’s ceiling is sky-high.
– Derek Brown

Zamir White (RB – LV)

Zamir White is a fantasy afterthought following a rookie season in which he rode the pine behind workhorse RB Josh Jacobs. But Jacobs is unhappy and skipping training camp after being franchise-tagged and failing to work out a long-term deal with the Raiders before the NFL deadline to do so. It’s possible Jacobs’ holdout stretches into the season. Even if it doesn’t, the Raiders have vowed to get White more involved this season. White has little pass-catching upside, but he’s a punishing downhill runner who could be an effective early-down and goal-line back if given the chance.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Gerald Everett (TE – LAC)

Gerald Everett was the TE15 last season and ranked second on the Chargers in red-zone targets (5th among TEs) despite modest snap usage (58% route participation). He also balled out with a 6-109-1 stat line in LA’s lone playoff game. Finished 7th in YAC/rec (6.5) while finishing 8th in catches (58) and 9th in total targets (82). Those were all career highs. And Everett will benefit in a new offense led by offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who did wonders for Dalton Schultz‘s fantasy upside over the past two seasons. Everett is the superior athlete, giving him more upside than Schultz could ever deliver. Long story short, Everett had a career year in his first year with the Chargers and is cheaper than last season. You know what do to. Mt. Everett 2023 eruption szn.
– Andrew Erickson

NFC East

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)

Tony Pollard should be a first-round draft pick. Yeah, I said it. The fact that he isn’t makes him the best value for the Dallas Cowboys. We have yearned to see Pollard as the lead back for Dallas, and we finally get that wish in 2023. Last year Pollard authored an RB8 finish while ranking 30th in snap share (50.9%) and 34th in opportunity share (48.1%). Last season he was top-five in breakaway run rate, yards created per touch, yards per route run, and yards per touch. Pollard SZN is upon us. Embrace it.
– Derek Brown

Darius Slayton (WR – NYG)

Darius Slayton re-signed with the Giants in the offseason, inking a two-year deal worth $6M with $4.9 M guaranteed. He is currently the team’s highest-paid WR and should be a lock for a full snap share in 2023. He should be able to slide seamlessly back onto the perimeter as the Giants’ big playmaker opposite Hodgins, as long as he can fend off 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt. In 2022, the former Day 3 pick was used exclusively as Big Blue’s primary deep threat with a dominant 37% air yards share – a top-12 mark among all WRs. His 1.70 yards per route run represented a career-high and ranked 31st among 54 qualifying WRs with at least 80 targets. He also finished as a top-36 WR in 54% of his 13 contests (seven games). That was equal to the likes of Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams, Adam Thielen and Marquise Brown. He actually finished as a WR3 at a higher rate than D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk and Garrett Wilson. Dude is free across fantasy land (WR87), and I don’t know why.
– Andrew Erickson

Rashaad Penny (RB – PHI)

In 2022, Rashaad Penny‘s on-field production was impressive, averaging over six yards per carry and ranking second among all RBs in rushing percentage that resulted in 10-plus yards. However, he missed a significant amount of time due to injuries. Quarterback Jalen Hurts‘ presence at the goal line will obviously hinder Penny’s TD potential to some extent but make no mistake that the former first-round pick has the potential to score beyond just the 5-yard line. Of his 14 career touchdowns, 11 have come on 10-yard-plus plays, with seven of those being 30-plus plays from scrimmage. However, the addition of D’Andre Swift and the re-signing of Boston Scott could hinder Penny’s chances of a significant role in the Eagles’ offense. While Swift and incumbent Kenneth Gainwell are expected to be the superior pass-catchers, Penny’s efficiency as a pure rusher should not be overlooked. With his low-risk contract, fantasy managers should consider Penny as a high-upside late-round selection, but it’s important to monitor his role/injury health status in the Eagles’ backfield throughout the offseason. He is a cheap way to get access to the Eagles’ offense as the RB37 in ADP.
– Andrew Erickson

Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)

Jahan Dotson played only 12 games as a rookie but scored seven touchdowns and had five weeks in which he was a top-20 scorer at the WR position. Dotson is fast, has terrific hands, runs good routes, and is exceptional at coming down with contested catches despite measuring 5-11, 181 pounds. With an ADP of WR40, this first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft is capable of providing a highly satisfying ROI in his second year in the league.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

NFC North

Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)

The Bears’ backfield is Johnson’s for the taking. This situation looks muddy now, but all we need is some positive camp news, and Johnson will surge up draft boards. The talent is present for Johnson to be Chicago’s primary back. In college, Johnson was hidden behind Bijan Robinson, so he couldn’t show what he could do with more volume. The glimpses we got of Johnson in college, though, were fantastic. He ranked 11th and 17th in yards after contact per attempt and third and fifth in PFF elusive rating (minimum 90 carries per PFF). Now is the time to pounce on Johnson in drafts before consensus wakes up and pushes him up in ADP.
– Derek Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)

Amon-Ra St. Brown is available in Round 2 when his fantasy production looks much more like a first-round pick. Since Week 12 of the 2021 season…ARSB ranks 6th in PPR points/game, 1st in target rate (30.5%), 2nd in receptions (161) and 5th in total targets. At WR9…the Sun God is a value.
– Andrew Erickson

Jayden Reed (WR – GB)

Jayden Reed checks off all the boxes of a Day 3 sleeper WR, but the Green Bay Packers couldn’t wait until Day 3 draft him in the 2023 NFL Draft. They selected Reed 50th overall. Expect the Michigan State product to step in and be the immediate No. 2 WR behind Christian Watson. He broke out at an early age, at 18 years old, while playing alongside NFL talent at Western Michigan. In 2021, Reed blew up as a junior, with 1,026 yards and ten receiving touchdowns en route to a career-high 34% dominator rating. His 23-year-old age isn’t ideal, but his experience might just help him hit the ground running sooner rather than later, especially considering that Reed flashed ability as a downfield threat with a top-5 deep target rate (29%) in his draft class in 2022. He should be able to easily climb up the Packers WR depth chart, and therefore he’s a value as the WR75 in ADP.
– Andrew Erickson

Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)

Last season, Vikings WR2 Adam Thielen was 9th in route participation and 8th in routes run per game with a whopping 18 red-zone targets. Minnesota selected Jordan Addison in the first round of this year’s draft with the idea that he will step into the No. 2 WR vacated by Thielen. Even as the third potential target in the pecking order (WR40 ADP), Addison’s rare role makes him very different from the majority of other No. 2 WRs. Keep in mind that the young WR enters the NFL with a very decorated college profile, setting the stage for him to produce with his playing time in Year 1. Recall that Addison broke out as an 18-year-old freshman in 2020 with 60 catches for 662 receiving yards and four TDs. The early-age production is a sign of an elite prospect, and it clearly foreshadowed Addison’s rise to becoming one of the best WRs in college football during his tenure.
– Andrew Erickson

NFC South

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)

The only big difference between Kyle Pitts in the 2023 versus 2022 draft season was he was WAY MORE expensive. His ADP has nosedived after a disappointing season where Pitts failed to hit lofty expectations. But at the same time, he still flashed the peripheral metrics we love for a tight end entering Year 3. He led the NFL in target rate per route run (among TEs) and finished second in the NFL in expected yards per route run. Pitts is a monster regression candidate in both yardage and TDs based on the volume he has seen in the past two years. With Desmond Ridder coming in as QB1, 2023 isn’t the year you should abandon ship.
– Andrew Erickson

Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)

Chuba Hubbard finished the 2022 season as PFF’s 21st-highest-graded rusher averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He also flashed efficiency in the receiving game ending the year tied for 6th in yards per route run (1.55) with Austin Ekeler. Only Derrick Henry bested him in yards per route run over expectation among RBs (+0.67). After the team traded Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, Hubbard’s role increased from Week 7 onward as he was able to carve out a 1B role in the backfield alongside D’Onta Foreman. With a three-down skillset, Hubbard has massive fantasy football appeal as a handcuff to Miles Sanders in 2023. Hubbard also has a chance to capture the main RB receiving role in the Panthers’ backfield.
– Andrew Erickson

Rashid Shaheed (WR – NO)

It’s difficult to overlook what Shaheed accomplished in his rookie season. After earning at least a 60% route per dropback rate last year, Shaheed was an impact player with three top 36 wide receiver weeks over his final seven games. In 2022, Shaheed ranked fourth in yards per route run and 22nd in PFF receiving grade (minimum 30 targets per PFF). While the Saints are hopeful that Michael Thomas returns to some semblance of his former greatness, it could be Shaheed and not Thomas that finishes second on the team in targets in 2023.
– Derek Brown

Rachaad White (RB – TB)

Rachaad White‘s rookie season saw him flash his legitimate 3-down back skill set in the Buccaneers’ offense. Despite working in a timeshare with Leonard Fournette, White was able to average 11 fantasy points per game (RB26) and operate as the 1A back in the second half of the season despite averaging just four yards per carry. While he wasn’t particularly efficient on the ground, White was still a better rusher than Fournette. And more importantly, he showed proficiency as a receiver with 50 receptions (11th among all RBs), which helped him solidify his role as the team’s RB1 for the upcoming 2023 season. And with White’s work as a receiver, he could still be valuable in games where the Buccaneers are chasing points. Additionally, the release of Fournette and the additions of cast-off Chase Edmonds and UDFA Sean Tucker gives White less competition for touches in the backfield. He’s a great value as the RB24 in ADP.
– Andrew Erickson

NFC West

James Conner (RB – ARI)

Crazy to think you can get a massive workhorse like James Conner in Round 7 as the RB26, because he is the ideal first RB to draft on a zero-RB squad. He played essentially six games last year without Kyler Murray and averaged over 21 fantasy points per game. Conner never finished outside the weekly top-15 running backs over that same span.
– Andrew Erickson

Cam Akers (RB – LAR)

Cam Akers as the RB22 in ADP is absurd. We cannot overlook how he finished the season as the RB4 during the final 6 weeks leading the NFL in rushing yards (85 yards/game). His potential for high volume as the Rams bellcow makes him a great fantasy football RB2 target in the middle rounds. The coaches’ trust in him was never more apparent than when he played every snap in the Rams’ season finale in 2022. His 2023 outlook looks even better, considering the team did not select any running backs until the sixth round of this year’s draft, and the only noteworthy veteran addition was Mr. 2.9 yards per carry himself, Sony Michel.
– Andrew Erickson

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)

There’s no question in my mind that the easiest and best fantasy football value on the SF roster is wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk’s breakout potential was on full display last season, finishing as the WR15 with impressive yards per route run and route participation. Career high in yards per route run at 1.82 and 96% route participation. Making him just one of six players in 2022 to run a route on at least 96% of team dropbacks. And this high route participation dates to the middle of the 2021 season. Aiyuk has run a route on 95% of his team’s dropbacks since Week 9 of the ’21 season, third behind only Diontae Johnson and Justin Jefferson. Without Deebo Samuel in the lineup for a stretch of games in 2022, Aiyuk averaged 13.2 points per game – fantasy WR1 numbers. ADP prices considered, Aiyuk is an easy bet to beat the WR29 rank. He has also missed zero games over the last two seasons…something that is not true for his three teammates (Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel) that are drafted ahead of him. – Andrew Erickson

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)

Smith-Njigba is only as low as he is in ADP because of the presence of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I’m not outright dismissing either player, but haven’t we seen it enough over the last few seasons to understand that talented rookies are strong bets to make if we believe in the talent. Trust me, I believe in the talent. It’s hard not to have faith in a player that was first in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while drawing a 22.7% target share alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in 2021. Smith-Njigba could be ranked as a weekly WR2 by the middle of the season.
– Derek Brown

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