Labor Day weekend represents the unofficial end of summer (although temps are expected to approach 100 where I’m at in Chicagoland). But it also represents the biggest weekend of the year for fantasy football drafts.

Inevitably, during your respective drafts, you’ll have to answer this internal question: “Should I buy the hype on player X?”

It seems like every year the majority of the fantasy community latches onto a handful of names as top guys to target for various reasons. The question is whether you should join these players on “The Hype Train,” or let the train pass by and find another mode of fantasy transportation.

In this article, I’ll help you answer these pressing questions on some of the most-hyped names of the summer.

Believe the Hype? (2023 Fantasy Football)

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)

You knew I had to start with Robinson, who has been arguably the most hyped player in fantasy football since he was drafted by Atlanta in April. Robinson sits at No. 8 overall in our Expert Consensus Rankings and is ranked as the RB3 for a bevy of reasons.

• Robinson is a slam-dunk draft prospect, the best tailback prospect since Saquon Barkley came out.
• Robinson landed in a run-first offense in Atlanta that turned Tyler Allgeier into a 1,000-yard rusher.
• The Falcons have one of the league’s top offensive lines, one that shall pave the path to an insane season.

These are all valid reasons for liking Robinson. However, like I’ve said before when discussing Travis Kelce‘s ADP, taking Robinson this high in drafts gives you no margin for error whatsoever.

How likely is it that Robinson puts up Barkley’s 2018 rookie season of 1,307 rushing yards, 91 receptions for another 721 yards, and 15 combined touchdowns? His 340 fantasy points in a half-PPR league are the third-most all-time in a rookie season and that’s essentially what you’re asking of Robinson by taking him inside the top 10.

When looking at Robinson’s draft price, I resort to my old adage: You can’t win your league in Round 1, but you can lose it. The best-case scenario for Bijan is a season we’ve already seen from the likes of Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, and Derrick Henry.

I’d rather roll the dice with the established commodity that early in my draft. If I miss out, I tip my cap and hope the RB1 I end up with puts up a similarly good season.

The Verdict: Don’t believe the hype at Robinson’s current draft price.

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)

Full disclosure: I am a New York Jets fan, but a realistic one at that. I think the hype surrounding the Jets is a tad overblown. Playoffs are definitely realistic, but the Super Bowl buzz has gotten a bit out of control.

However, I don’t think the hype surrounding Garrett Wilson has gotten to this level. In fact, I’m probably one of the most optimistic people out there on Wilson, as I believe he’s a legitimate threat to finish as the WR1 in fantasy football.

There, I said it. So you can probably guess I’m believing the hype. Here’s why:

Wilson finished as the WR19 in half-PPR formats a year ago despite some highly inefficient stats. He caught just 83 of 147 targets (56%), his catch rate ranked 173rd among all receivers, and his success rate ranked 103rd. He also scored just four touchdowns on those targets and could be due for some natural regression in that area.

I’m willing to bet that Wilson’s QB play in 2022 prevented him from finishing as a top-1o wideout. Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White were mostly abysmal and occasionally competent. Say what you want about where Aaron Rodgers is in his career, he’s still a heck of a lot better than any of those aforementioned passers. Plus, Rodgers and Wilson have quickly developed trust during the offseason.

Touchdown! Rodgers to Garrett Wilson, what a throw!pic.twitter.com/NAGQWZQamX

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 26, 2023

I haven’t even mentioned that Wilson is an insanely good separator and route runner already. The talent is obvious and the situation around him has drastically improved. Wilson is the new Davante Adams for Rodgers. A top-5 fantasy finish is absolutely on the table.

The verdict: Believe the hype!

Chris Olave (WR – NO)

Let’s move on to Wilson’s former Ohio State teammate, Chris Olave, who has some special traits as well. He’s a winner at all three levels of the field but is even faster than Wilson. Olave’s stats are equally as impressive as Wilson’s in two fewer games played and like Wilson, Olave dealt with horrid quarterback play from Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton.

I don’t think the addition of Derek Carr in New Orleans is as great as Rodgers landing in New York, but it’s clear Carr is a huge upgrade nonetheless. Hopefully, Carr trusts himself to take more chances downfield, where Olave can really thrive. Additionaly, like Wilson, Olave should benefit from better quarterback play from an efficiency standpoint alone.

The arrow is clearly pointing up on these Buckeyes wideouts, and I suspect these two will be first-round picks in 2024 drafts, representing the new wave of elite wideouts.

The verdict: Believe the hype!

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)

Gibbs entered draft season as the clear No. 2 running back prospect behind Bijan, but ever since he was drafted to Detroit, the Gibbs hype train has been running at the same speed as Robinson’s.

Gibbs is ranked as the RB13 right now and going in roughly the third round in drafts. This is for a rookie running back who only received 195 carries as the featured back for Alabama last year. And yes, Gibbs led the Crimson Tide in receptions, but that was also a sub-par Alabama team (by its standards) that had issues along the offensive line and lacked a true threat at receiver.

I’ll grant you this, Gibbs is a better between-the-tackles runner than D’Andre Swift and the Lions may trust him to do more of the dirty work than they ever trusted Swift to. However, David Montgomery is here to play the foil, and at the very least I expect this to be a committee with relatively defined roles.

If Detroit plans to deploy these backs just like they did last year, with Gibbs being Swift and Montgomery being Jamaal Williams, isn’t Montgomery clearly the better value for drafts in the seventh round? This feels like a situation in which fantasy players are falling into the same trap.

I’m not insanely down on Gibbs, but it’s really hard to justify taking him over guys like Aaron Jones or Kenneth Walker III.

The verdict: Don’t believe the hype.

Calvin Ridley (WR – JAX)

Out of all the players on this list, Ridley might be the guy most universally hyped. I’m not sure I’ve seen more training camp clips from a single player more than I’ve seen them from Ridley. The universally held belief is that Ridley will show up, become Trevor Lawrence‘s top guy, and immediately vault back into low-end WR1/WR2 territory.

But what if he doesn’t? It’s been nearly two years since we’ve seen Ridley on a football field. He’s already 28 years old and even when he was on the field, he only posted one year with more than 65 catches and 900 yards. So I just have one question for the fantasy community and I’m going to use a popular meme to ask it:

That’s the question you have to ask if Ridley’s staring at you in Round 3, where he’s going in drafts. Are we sure that Ridley will instantly develop a rapport with Lawrence? Are we sure that Christian Kirk, last year’s WR11, is going to fade into the abyss and clear the path for Ridley to take that rank? I suspect not, as Kirk has a defined role in this offense as a zone-beater out of the slot at all three levels.

I really like Calvin Ridley! I always have. If I can get him as my FLEX or WR2, I’ll be thrilled. I just don’t like him quite as much as everyone else.

The verdict: Tread cautiously with the hype and Ridley’s draft stock.

Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)

There may not be a more polarizing player in fantasy circles than Richardson. The believers I hear from seem to think his completion percentage at Florida was more a result of a bad scheme and Richardson will make an impact right away as a dual-threat. The detractors think he will struggle to read NFL defenses and rely too much on his athleticism to be trusted as a weekly fantasy starter.

I lie in the middle. I do think Richardson is a raw prospect, one I most likely won’t be touching aside from deeper 2QB leagues. However, I can also see the scenario where he puts us 2,500 passing yards, 800 rushing yards, and 20-25 touchdowns to force himself into the QB1 discussion. Justin Fields just finished as the QB6 throwing for 2,200 yards and 17 touchdowns while rushing for 1,100+ yards and eight scores.

However, that feels like the best-case scenario for the rookie, and realistically I would expect growing pains to at least start the year. Richardson needs some refinement from the pocket and faces an uphill climb with a rebuilding offensive line and no Jonathan Taylor for at least the first four games.

I understand the value of acquiring rushing QBs in fantasy. but Richardson feels like a case where we’re reaching a bit too far to fit that narrative. I’m wishing him the best, but likely won’t be taking the chance.

The verdict: Don’t believe the hype.