Andrew Erickson’s Players to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)

The 2023 NFL season is approaching, and that means it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. What better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we’re also going to have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.

Knowing who to target is one of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft. Sure, there could be ‘value’ that presents itself through the draft, but sometimes there’s a reason a player is ‘falling’ down draft boards. You need to know when to scoop up value and when to move on. Here are my top players to avoid based on price in 2023 fantasy football drafts.

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Andrew Erickson’s Players to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)

Here are players I’m avoiding in fantasy football drafts.

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | ECR: QB8, 55th overall ADP

Despite finishing as the QB8 in fantasy last season, there are valid reasons to consider Trevor Lawrence overrated as a fantasy quarterback for the upcoming 2023 season as the QB8 in average draft position (ADP) — 58^th overall (over a full-round increase from his June ADP).

Limited Fantasy Ceiling: Lawrence had a respectable point-per-game average of 18.6 last season but failed to exhibit a true 20-point-per-game ceiling. With fewer than 300 rushing yards and No. 10 status in expected points per game (on par with Kirk Cousins), Lawrence hasn’t shown the consistent high-level performance that justifies his current fantasy draft position. His 56% top-12 finisher rate from last season (sixth) suggests he is more of a floor player than a ceiling player as a more traditional pocket passer.

Consensus Projections: According to FantasyPros consensus projections, Lawrence is currently ranked as the QB11. The minimal point difference separating him from the QB9 (Kirk Cousins) suggests that Lawrence may not provide significant value as a QB1 option, especially considering the hype surrounding him. Cousins finished with a higher top-6 finisher rate last season (38%) than Lawrence. Lawrence’s top-6 finisher rate (31%) was the same as Tua Tagovailoa‘s in 2022.

Alternative Options: If banking on an outlier touchdown rate, it may be wiser to consider other quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson or Geno Smith, both of who could provide similar production at a potentially lower cost. They are both projected to score within 5 points of Lawrence. But they are drafted several rounds after Lawrence.  Investing in Lawrence based on his potential alone might not be the most advantageous strategy when there are other proven options available.

Health and Team Factors: The Jaguars’ health advantage last season played a significant role in their overall performance. Per Football Outsiders, they had the second-fewest adjusted games lost due to injury. However, it’s important to note that such factors are not easily replicated year after year. Relying on the same level of team health may not be a reliable strategy for expecting similar fantasy output from Lawrence. Nor does an offensive line that looks primed to take a step back in 2023 (26th-ranked per PFF and PFN, 31st by FantasyPros). They lost Jawaan Taylor to the Chiefs and their best OL, Cam Robinson, is suspended for the first four weeks of the season.

Comparisons to Justin Herbert: Drawing comparisons to Justin Herbert’s 2021 season, it’s essential to recognize that Lawrence has not yet reached the consistent fantasy production that Herbert displayed. Herbert already boasted an average of 22.7 points per game in 2021, showcasing a higher fantasy ceiling compared to Lawrence’s latest performance. But when Herbert failed to deliver last season, he was a major detriment to fantasy rosters. Lawrence has proven less but is already expected to take the leap based on his inflated price tag.

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker (SEA) | ECR: RB16, 49th overall ADP

Despite his impressive performance in 2022 and his current expert consensus ranking (ECR) as the RB17, there are reasons to consider Kenneth Walker slightly overrated for the upcoming 2023 fantasy season.

Late-Season Surge: In 2022, Walker emerged as a valuable fantasy asset, finishing as the RB9 in points per game and the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny‘s injury. His increased workload and production during this period were a boon for fantasy managers who drafted him late. However, it’s important to consider the circumstances surrounding his success. He had zero competition and benefited significantly from volume to boost his numbers.

Underwhelming Receiving Ability: While Walker demonstrated his ability as a rusher, he underwhelmed as a receiver. His limited involvement in the passing game is a concern, as fantasy points in point per reception (PPR) formats heavily rely on receptions. Walker’s deficiency in this area could limit his overall fantasy value.

Low Rushing Success Rate: Despite his notable rushing performances, Walker had a low rushing success rate, ranking second-to-last among rushers with at least 100 carries. This raises questions about his efficiency and consistency as a runner. Fantasy managers rely on reliability and productivity from their running backs, and Walker’s struggles in this area are a cause for concern. Per FantasyPros boom-or-bust report, Walker owned the second-highest bust rate (29%) among RBs inside the top 20 last season.

Competition from Zach Charbonnet: The addition of Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 draft adds another layer of uncertainty to Walker’s fantasy outlook. Charbonnet brings an impressive skill set, excelling as a receiver and displaying high efficiency as a rusher. The former UCLA running back posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. He also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs. With Charbonnet likely to earn playing time and potentially cut into Walker’s touches, there is a legitimate concern about the second-year back’s workhorse upside.

Red-zone role: KW3 finished with the fourth-highest red-zone rush share last season (80 percent) but scored only two rushing TD as Seattle struggled to convert in the red zone (sixth-worst). The majority of his nine rushing TDs came from outside the 10-yard line. Walker posted +3.5 rushing TDs over expectation as a rookie.

It’s possible that Charbonnet sees an expanded role as a goal-line rusher for Seattle to improve in this area of the field. As a freshman at Michigan, Charbonnet scored 11 rushing TDs from the red zone while competing for touches with future NFL running back Hassan Haskins.

Considering these factors, fantasy managers should be cautious when evaluating Kenneth Walker as the RB16. While he showcased his explosiveness and ability to handle a heavy workload in 2022 – although he did miss two games, dealt with a sports hernia early on and picked up a new groin injury this offseason forcing him to miss team drills for multiple weeks – concerns about his receiving skills, low rushing success rate, and the presence of Zach Charbonnet suggest that Walker may not be the workhorse many hope for in the 2023 season.

I think Walker is a much better play in best ball than in traditional redraft formats, where you won’t feel the bust games nearly as badly. Because his explosive skill set definitely lends itself to large spike weeks that can be massive in a one-week sample size. He finished 12th in the top-24 fantasy RB finisher rate in 2022 (64%).

And Walker’s ADP declining more than a full round since June, I’ve actually found myself more open to selecting him. Again, when prices move on players, you need to alter expectations. Because if Walker stays healthy, he’s probably going to finish as back-end RB1, high-end RB2. I’d still bet he finished somewhere in the 255-touch range (achieved with just 15 touches per game, very close to his FantasyPros’ projection of 257) and that volume locks him in as a top-20 fantasy RB. He averaged 17 touches per game in 15 games played last season after starting the year in a committee with Rashaad Penny. Every running back who earned 255 touches last season finished as a top-20 fantasy RB.

However, I still issue that you should proceed with caution because I don’t believe that the ceiling case is there for Walker if he isn’t gobbling the majority of high-value touches (goal-line, receptions, etc.) in his backfield/offense. Think he’s leaning more toward the “floor” play versus an actual bust play with his declining best ball ADP. But it just might be a bumpy ride given the circumstances I’ve laid out. And his redraft ADP remains high on Yahoo and Sleeper (38th overall). It was 29th overall when I wrote about Walker back at the start of June.

Specifically in Walker’s draft range, I’d much prefer going with another position and scooping up running back values elsewhere like Rachaad White, James Conner or Cam Akers.

Dameon Pierce (HOU) | ECR: RB22, 56th overall ADP

While Dameon Pierce had a promising rookie season in 2022 and currently holds an ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking) as the RB22, there are factors to consider that may suggest he is overrated for the 2023 fantasy season.

Uncertain Role in a New Offensive System: The Texans have a new coaching staff in place, which adds an element of uncertainty to Pierce’s role in the offense. With the arrival of Devin Singletary, who presents a credible threat to Pierce’s workload, it’s unclear how the backfield distribution will unfold. Pierce’s status as a bell cow and his involvement as a receiver are both up in the air, making it difficult to project consistent fantasy production. A lack of receiving is particularly problematic should the Texans find themselves trailing in many of their games. Ultimately, I’m not afraid of missing out on a two-down grinder back for the Houston Texans. Their offense ranks 28th in aggregate team ADP.

Dependence on Volume and Concerns about Durability: Pierce’s success in 2022 was largely predicated on the volume of carries he received. However, as the season progressed, he showed signs of breaking down and eventually suffered a season-ending ankle injury. Relying solely on volume as the main source of fantasy production can be risky, especially if Pierce’s workload is not guaranteed or if he faces durability issues.

Competition from Devin Singletary: The addition of Devin Singletary to the Texans’ backfield further clouds Pierce’s fantasy outlook. While Singletary may not completely supplant Pierce as the team’s lead rusher, his presence and potential involvement in the passing game could limit his opportunities and hinder his fantasy value. Singletary is better than any other RB Pierce was competing with last season in Houston between JAGs like Rex Burkhead, Mike Boone and Dare Ogunbowale.

And Singletary has shown that he can carry large amounts of volume at the NFL level after finishing last season 15^th in opportunity share (59%) despite the presence of second-round rookie James Cook. Pierce earned a 60% opportunity share last season. Singletary also finished with a career-high PFF rushing grade in 2022 (85.1, 10th), two slots higher than Pierce (84.8, 12th). Singletary’s pass-blocking abilities also add another dimension to his potential role, potentially affecting Pierce’s playing time on passing downs.

Draft Capital: Pierce was selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. And unfortunately, history has not been kind to RBs with Pierce’s rookie-year profile. The list of Day 3 rookie RBs that rushed for 900-plus yards but were limited to fewer than 200 receiving yards/30 receptions includes Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, Elijah Mitchell, Zac Stacy, Alfred Morris, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary and Ronald Moore. The vast majority of them failed to live up to their rookie-year expectations.

Considering these factors, fantasy managers should approach Dameon Pierce with caution. While he showed promise in his rookie season, the uncertainty surrounding his role/upside in a below-average Texans’ offense, the potential competition from Devin Singletary, and concerns about his reliance on volume and durability raise doubts about his ability to deliver consistent fantasy production.

I’m also terrified of Pierce coming out of the gates cold. He’s got a rookie QB, so this offense is bound to go through its lumps early on. The Texans open on the road as 10-point underdogs at the Baltimore Ravens. Woof. Factor in that the Texans have already lost two offensive linemen to injuries — OT Tytus Howard and C Scott Quessenberry – and it’s not hard to find the potential issues here.

If you want him, you can probably just trade for him on the cheap after Week 1.

Pierce has fallen in best ball ADP (as RBs tend to do), but his ADP is stagnant in redraft ADP (44th overall, RB18).

In Pierce’s draft range, I’d much rather prefer Rachaad White, Cam Akers, James Conner, Chris Godwin, Jerry Jeudy, Christian Watson or Calvin Ridley.

Wide Receivers

Tee Higgins (CIN) | ECR: WR14, 26th overall ADP

Despite being regarded as the ECR fantasy WR14, there are valid reasons to consider Tee Higgins overrated for the upcoming 2023 season.

Two-Year Sample Size: With a two-year sample size of playing alongside Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, we have a clearer picture of Higgins’ performance. In games where both Burrow and Chase were healthy, Higgins has averaged fewer than 12 fantasy points per game in half PPR. This level of production raises concerns about his ability to consistently deliver low-end fantasy numbers while playing alongside Chase.

Impact of Ja’Marr Chase: When Ja’Marr Chase was absent from the lineup (limited to just four games), Higgins’ per-game average jumped to 15.5 fantasy points. Based on his performance with Chase in the lineup, Higgins’ 11.8 points per game would have finished as the WR19 last season and WR23 in 2021. Considering these numbers, it’s reasonable to question whether Higgins truly warrants his current ECR WR14 ranking.

Points per Game Ranking: In terms of points per game, Higgins finished as the WR20 last season. While he has shown flashes of WR1 fantasy potential, his overall performance places him outside the top-tier wide receiver category. This raises doubts about his ability to consistently produce at the level expected of a WR14.

Taking these factors into account, Tee Higgins may be overrated as the ECR fantasy WR14 for the 2023 season. His two-year sample size suggests that his production is relatively modest, especially when Ja’Marr Chase is on the field. With an average of fewer than 12 fantasy points per game in those situations, Higgins’ current ranking appears inflated.

Considering his points per game ranking from last season and the potential impact of Chase, fantasy managers should approach Higgins with caution and consider him more as a mid-WR2 option rather than a fringe top-12 wide receiver.

Per the FantasyPros WR boom-or-bust report, Higgins finished with the fourth-highest WR2 finish rate (top-24) in 2022.

Higgins also finished sixth in fantasy points scored over expectation in 2022. He was the WR41 in expected fantasy points per game last season. Between Adam Thielen and Allen Robinson. Higgins also commanded just 12 red-zone targets (same as Tyler Boyd) and a mediocre 20 percent red-zone target share.

In Higgin’s draft range, I prefer Mark Andrews, Amari Cooper and DK Metcalf.

Again, Higgins probably won’t fall outside the top-24 (or outside the top-20 WRs), but I think his true fantasy WR1 ceiling is blocked by a healthy Chase. He’s a solid fantasy WR2, and I just don’t love paying the price of a high-end fantasy WR2.

One other tidbit I’d like to note regarding the Higgins numbers from last season is he did deal with a number of injuries, etc. that shortened some of his games. When I removed those games from the sample, his average jumped from 11.8 to 12.5. That was WR14 last season and WR18 two years ago. So with his ADP sitting at WR14 now in mid-August, I feel more comfortable selecting him in the middle of Round 3 (especially in PPR). He feels pretty “safe” after posting back-to-back seasons averaging fringe fantasy WR1 numbers on a per-game basis.

Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) | ECR: WR34, 67th overall

Despite his potential as the projected No. 1 wide receiver for the Colts and his current ECR as the WR34, there are reasons to consider Michael Pittman overrated for the upcoming 2023 fantasy season.

Limited Passing Volume: The Colts’ offense is expected to be run-heavy, which poses a challenge for Pittman’s fantasy production. With a low volume of passing attempts, there may be fewer opportunities for Pittman to accumulate targets and make a significant impact in fantasy. This limitation in passing volume is a considerable concern for his fantasy value.

Uncertainty at Quarterback: The Colts’ quarterback situation is another red flag for Pittman’s fantasy outlook. The Day 1 starter, Anthony Richardson, is a rookie and may not provide the level of accuracy and consistency necessary to fuel Pittman’s success. While spike weeks are possible with Richardson’s big arm and Pittman’s talent — 93% route participation and 27% target share last season — the overall consistency may be lacking, leading to an unpredictable fantasy performance.

Potential Competition: The emergence of second-year wide receiver Alec Pierce adds another layer of uncertainty to Pittman’s role. Pierce, known for his deep-threat abilities, could potentially put up similar production or even share spike weeks with Pittman as a better “fit” with his rookie QB. With a lower ADP than Pittman, Pierce represents a value option for fantasy managers and raises questions about Pittman’s ability to be the sole standout in the Colts’ receiving corps.

Considering these factors, it is reasonable to be skeptical of Michael Pittman’s fantasy outlook for the 2023 season. While he holds the potential to deliver spike weeks if used more downfield — recall that Pittman posted a 10.3 average depth of target (aDOT) as a sophomore when he finished top-20 in yards per route run, PFF receiving grade and total fantasy points scored (half-PPR) — the limitations in sheer passing volume, uncertainty at quarterback, and potential competition from Alec Pierce and/or Josh Downs make it difficult to envision Pittman returning anything more than WR3 fantasy value. He finished as a WR2 or higher in just 33% of his games last season, which was third-worst among top-24 overall scorers.

In Pittman’s draft range, I prefer Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, Brandon Aiyuk and Darren Waller.

Tight Ends

George Kittle (SF) | ECR: TE4, 61stoverall

George Kittle has been a highly regarded tight end in fantasy football, but there are reasons to believe that he may be overrated heading into the 2023 season. Without looking it up…who do you think has played more games over the last three seasons? George Kittle or Darren Waller? Trick question. It’s the same. 37 regular season games played.

Decreased Yards per Route Run: Kittle had his lowest yards per route run since his rookie season in 2022. This indicates a potential decline in his effectiveness as a receiver and raises concerns about his ability to consistently produce at a high level.

Target Share and Production: Even with Brock Purdy as his quarterback, Kittle still trailed Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in target share, ranking third in the pecking order (tied with Christian McCaffrey). Without Samuel healthy for four games, Kittle’s fantasy production nearly doubled, with 1.5 receiving TDs per game.

Boom-or-Bust Nature: Kittle’s performance in 2022 was marked by inconsistency. He had six games with fewer than 40 receiving yards, with three of them occurring when Samuel was on the field. However, Kittle did have three games with over 90 receiving yards, mainly when Purdy was at quarterback, and Samuel was absent. His 50% bust rate last season led all tight end scorers inside the top-7 at the position. This volatility makes him a riskier option for fantasy managers.

Target Share and Efficiency: Kittle owned an 8th-ranked 19% target share among all tight ends in 2022 and ranked 13th in target rate per route run at 22%. While these numbers are solid, they don’t necessarily place him in the upper echelon of fantasy tight ends.

Touchdown Regression: Kittle significantly outperformed his expected touchdown total, finishing with 11 touchdowns compared to an expected total of 6.2. This suggests that he may experience a regression in touchdown production in 2023, which could have a negative impact on his fantasy output.

Considering these factors, it’s reasonable to argue that George Kittle is overvalued as the TE4 being drafted around the 60th overall pick. His declining yards per route run, inconsistent performances, and the likelihood of touchdown regression make him a riskier option compared to other tight ends available later in the draft.

In Kittle’s draft range, I prefer Kyle Pitts, Cam Akers, James Conner, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson and Brandon Aiyuk. Kittle is still being drafted 49th in redraft ADP (61st in best ball ADP).

Evan Engram (JAC) | ECR: TE8, 80th overall

Misleading Production:  Evan Engram struggled to maintain a top-12 tight end status, achieving it in less than half of his games last season (44 percent). Surprisingly, Engram had the same number of top-six finishes (three) as Noah Fant, Darren Waller, and David Njoku. His total season-long numbers are inflated by his Week 14 blow-up game.

From Weeks 1-13, Engram was the TE15 averaging fewer points per game than Kyle Pitts, Tyler Higbee, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Conklin, and Gerald Everett. After Week 14, Engram jumped all the way to TE4, adding more than two points to his per-game averages.

With his injury history, the addition of wide receiver Calvin Ridley and the draft selection of pass-catching tight end Brenton Strange in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Engram is an easy fade in 2023. Drafting the middle tier of tight end traditionally brings poor ROI. And Engram is going even HIGHER in redraft ADP (80th) versus best ball (91st).

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