Alvin Kamara Suspended Three Games by NFL: Fantasy Football Impact

The NFL has given Saints RB Alvin Kamara a three-game suspension for a February 2022 incident during Pro Bowl Weekend in Las Vegas that left a man injured.

Kamara initially faced a felony charge of battery resulting in substantial bodily harm, but he reached a plea agreement on July 11, pleading no contest to a misdemeanor charge of breach of peace. Kamara met with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell on Wednesday, and the NFL announced the Kamara suspension on Friday.

FantasyPros analysts Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice weigh in on the fantasy football implications of the Kamara suspension.

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NFL Suspends Alvin Kamara Three Games

Kamara will be a difference-maker

Finally, we have some clarity on Alvin Kamara‘s 2023 outlook with the news of his three-game suspension.

With only a three-game absence, Kamara can be drafted as a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3, depending on your roster build. Once he’s back, Kamara should outpace that draft position and should reclaim his throne as the king of the Saints’ backfield.

Last year, Kamara ranked fourth among RBs in opportunity share and seventh in weighted opportunities. While his tackle-breaking metrics took a dip in 2022 (49th in juke rate), his pass-catching ability is still top-shelf. He was third in target share (18.2%, according to PlayerProfiler.com) and sixth in yards per route run.

Kamara will be a difference-maker for your rosters, with regression primed to hit in 2023. He was the RB13 in fantasy points per game last year and the RB7 in expected fantasy points. Kamara is the RB24 in my half-PPR rankings, with Kendre Miller checking in at RB44 and Jamaal Williams sitting at RB46.

– Derek Brown

Kendre Miller should be drafted aggressively in all formats

With Alvin Kamara out for the first three weeks of the season, we can expect a heavy dosage of Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller in the Saints backfield. It’s a soft opening schedule vs. the Titans, Panthers and Packers, so New Orleans should be able to benefit from positive game scripts (although the Titans’ defense was fierce against the run last season).

Williams might not get a lot of work as a pass catcher — he had 12 receptions in 17 games last season — but he’ll likely see plenty of red-zone usage after leading the NFL in touchdown runs in 2022. He can be started as fantasy RB2 with TD upside attached until Kamara returns.

As for Miller, his exact role will be up in the air through the first three games. Rookie RBs typically aren’t used much in the passing game right out of the gate, but Miller could be the Saints’ designated receiving back while Kamara is suspended. Regardless, Miller will get more usage than a third-string rookie RB would normally get. Thus, he should be drafted aggressively in all formats and stashed on benches. His explosiveness will be on full display — especially in comparison to the plodding Williams — and that will get him noticed by his coaches and by fantasy managers. It’s also entirely possible that if Miller balls out the first three weeks, he’ll cement a role for himself.

In lieu of the news I have updated my half-PPR rankings for the Saints’ RBs as follows: Alvin Kamara RB25, Jamaal Williams RB35, Kendre Miller RB38.

– Andrew Erickson

Kamara has a promising fantasy playoff schedule

A three-game suspension for Kamara is lighter than most fantasy managers were imagining a few months ago, when the expected over/under on suspension length was probably six games.

Kamara will be eligible to play a Week 4 game against the Buccaneers on Oct. 1, and as Andrew Erickson noted, one of the games Kamara will miss is a matchup against the Titans, whose run defense ranked No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric last season.

Kamara won’t have an easy go of it in his first two games back. The Saints’ opponents in Weeks 4 and 5, the Buccaneers and Patriots, gave up the sixth-fewest and fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs last season in Weeks 1-17. But then Kamara enters a Charmin-soft stretch of the schedule in which he’ll face the Texans, Jaguars, Colts, Bears and Vikings. The Texans and Bears gave up the most and second most fantasy points to RBs last season. The Colts’ and Vikings’ defenses were among the 10 most generous to RBs in fantasy points allowed, and the Jaguars were middle of the pack.

The Saints’ late-season schedule also sets up well for Kamara and the rest of the New Orleans running backs. In Weeks 15-17, which are playoff weeks in most fantasy leagues, Kamara will face the Giants, Rams and Buccaneers. The Giants’ run defense was dead last in DVOA in 2022. The Rams and Buccaneers ranked 12th and 13th, respectively, in DVOA against the run last season, but both teams are expected to be also-rans this year, potentially setting up run-friendly game scripts for the Saints.

According to Sharp Football, the Saints have the easiest schedule in the league this year. An easy schedule and a lighter-than-expected suspension have me interested in drafting Kamara if the price is right.

My current half-PPR rankings for the Saints’ top three running backs: Alvin Kamara RB23, Jamaal Williams RB39, Kendre Miller RB48.

– Pat Fitzmaurice

Alvin Kamara to officially miss 3 games due to suspension pic.twitter.com/IlJOGOwYYG

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