This is an article that fascinates me. Most pieces I write generally focus on a fantasy perspective, but this one is more directed toward the gambling community. It’s also an interesting look at our premier projection system, which is an excellent tool for any fantasy manager.
With that said, I’ve dug deep down into these projections and found some estimates that I disagreed with. It’s an excellent opportunity to bet on some of these wide receiver totals, so let’s look at some of these wideout over/unders. And check out our predictions for running back projections from earlier this month.
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Wide Receiver Over/Under Projections (2023 Fantasy Football)
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) Over 98.6 Receptions
Allen has been a consummate professional throughout his career, and it’s strange to see his projection below 100 catches. Justin Herbert‘s safety blanket has been feasting in this offense for years, picking up at least 97 receptions in five of the last six years. I always hear people say that Allen is injury-prone, but he’s played at least 14 games in all but one of those.
That’s the one season he didn’t reach 97 catches, but he still had 66 receptions across 10 games, which was last year. If you extrapolate that across just 15 games, that would equate to 99 receptions. He’s also averaging close to 10 targets per game in that six-year span, and only an injury will keep him below the century mark this year.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT) Over 80.3 Receptions
The no-touchdown season are all people talk about when it comes to Johnson, but this guy has been a reception hound ever since he was drafted. Despite failing to find pay-dirt last season, DJ had 86 catches on 147 targets. That was one of the worst years of his career, averaging 93.7 receptions on 153.3 targets since his sophomore season. It’s almost impossible for a guy who’s getting 150 targets not to surpass 80 receptions, especially since DJ is catching so many short passes from an up-and-coming Kenny Pickett.
Marquise Brown (WR – ARI) Over 77.8 Receptions
Something tells me Brown is going to go off this season. I always love to draft top wide receivers for lousy football teams because those clubs have to throw more than anyone else. Garbage time is one of the best times to get fantasy production, and we expect Downtown Brown to feast in those circumstances all season. In 12 games last year, Brown had 67 catches on 107 targets. He also had 91 receptions on 146 targets in the year prior and did that damage with DeAndre Hopkins on the roster.
With Hopkins leaving town, Brown should be the key point in this passing game. All he needs to do is duplicate what he did in the last two years to clear this total, and that looks like a lock since he’s likely looking at 150 targets.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) Over 73.8 Receptions
Fantasy managers are horrified by this Commanders’ passing game, but this total is too low. McLaurin has cleared this total in all three years since his rookie season, picking up at least 77 receptions in all of those. He’s actually averaging 80.3 receptions on 128 targets in those three years. That makes it hard to believe that this total remains below 75 catches because McLaurin is still the focal point of this passing game. There are also rumors that the rapport with Sam Howell is going swimmingly, and it’d be wise for that first-time starter to feed this beast.
Michael Thomas (WR – NO) Over 67.2 Receptions
This pick is all about health. If Thomas is on the field for at least 12-14 games, he should easily clear this total. That’s been the problem with Thomas over recent years, though, playing just 10 games since the 2020 season. He has been productive in those 10 games, though, averaging 6.5 receptions per outing. That means he would only need to play 11 games to clear that total at this pace, but he was even better before that.
Thomas averaged 117.5 catches on 150.5 targets per game in his first four years in the league. This total is about half of that, and Derek Carr is the best quarterback he’s had since the Drew Brees days.
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN) Under 1,050.3 Receiving Yards
There’s some thought in the fantasy community that Russell Wilson will have a bounce-back season, and that will have to happen if Jeudy is going to clear 1,050 yards. I’m not convinced that will happen because Sean Payton has built this team in the guts of the offense. He’s got a revamped offensive line and two talented backs, so we expect this to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. It’s not like Jeudy has proven he can clear 1,000 yards anyway, averaging just 765 yards per season through his first three years in the league.
There’s also an expectation that Cortland Sutton and Greg Dulcich are going to take leaps in this offense, which is horrifying since Jeudy has never had more than 113 targets. DraftKings certainly agrees, setting Jeudy’s receiving yardage total at 925.5 yards this year.
Mike Evans (WR – TB) Over 991.4 Receiving Yards
What if I told you that you could bet something that has happened 100% of the time? It obviously doesn’t work like that, but Evans has never finished below 1,000 receiving yards in any of his nine years with Tampa! He’s also played at least 15 games in all but one of those, recording at least 67 catches in every season as well. That’s the definition of consistency, and it’s clear our projections are worried about this passing game.
Losing Tom Brady is obviously massive, but it’s hard to overlook a guy who’s been this reliable for nearly a decade. We also expect this Tampa team to be one of the worst in the NFL, and that means they could be throwing just as much as we’re accustomed to.
Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) Under 919.1 Receiving Yards
Watching Kirk go off last season was fun, but it’s difficult seeing him duplicate that. Adding Calvin Ridley is the biggest problem because Ridley was one of the best receivers in the NFL before making some bets and finding himself sitting at home. In fact, Ridley had 90 catches for 1,374 yards on 143 targets in his last full season. We don’t expect him to return to that level, but anyone getting 100-150 targets will take away from everyone else in this offense.
Through his first five years, Kirk averaged 802 receiving yards per year, and that’s what we expect to see this season, with Ridley, Evan Engram and Zay Jones all expected to be significant parts of this offense. DraftKings agrees with my assessment, projecting Kirk to compile 825.5 receiving yards in this new-look offense.
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS) Under 829.1 Receiving Yards
We believe that McLaurin will be the focal point of this passing game, and there’s really not much else for anyone else. Many fantasy managers have Dotson pegged as a breakout, but this 829-yard total seems way too high. It’s hard to evaluate a second-year player, but getting 35 catches for 523 yards in a rookie season is nothing to write home about. He also had four games with fewer than 15 receiving yards, and that sort of floor will be common since he’s the second piece for an underwhelming quarterback.
People also forget that Curtis Samuel is still in town, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him play more than Dotson. The DraftKings over/under is the nail in the coffin, projecting Dotson to collect just 700.5 yards.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Hoppen’s Final Round Draft Dart Throws
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
- The Worst Fantasy Football Team You Could Draft at ADP
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