Here at FantasyPros, we have consensus projections for all fantasy-relevant positions. You can filter them to see which sites are higher on certain players, or take the average of the group.
In this article, we’ll take a look at some of those projections, compare them to a player’s historical performances, and give a verdict on whether they’re too low or too high for each player.
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2023 Over/Under Projections: Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (SF)
Projection: 1011 rush yards, 632 receiving yards, 11.4TDs
Throughout this offseason, McCaffrey has been the clear RB1 in fantasy drafts. That looks unlikely to change at this point. Consensus projections have him running for over 1000 yards for the fourth time in his career as well as picking up over 600 receiving yards, which would be the fifth time in his career he surpassed that amount.
That translates to 59 rushing yards and 37 receiving yards per game. The receiving total is similarly aligned to where McCaffrey ended up in games for the Niners last year, when he averaged 43 per game.
The rushing yardage, however, might be siding on the cautious side of things. McCaffrey averaged 70.1 per game during the regular season in games for San Francisco, including four games over 90 yards. These projections might be anticipating a greater workload for Elijah Mitchell or McCaffrey to miss time with injuries. Either way, this one looks conservative.
Verdict: OVER
Austin Ekeler (LAC)
Projection: 861 rush yards, 599 receiving yards, 13.3TDs
After back-to-back seasons of 18 touchdowns, Ekeler is projected to regress in 2023. In part, because of the increased competition from pass catchers that should be healthier than last year.
Ekeler has never rushed for over 900 yards, which may surprise some people. His 861 projected rushing yards would snuggle between his 2021 and 2022 outcomes. While Ekeler isn’t a prolific rusher, he is good at that side of the game, and the running game will be upgraded by new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore along with the return of star left tackle Rashawn Slater.
The 599 projected receiving yards would average out to 35.2 per game, which would be a notable dip from Ekeler’s last four years in which he has averaged 49.9 with only one of those seasons (2021) dipping below that average. A healthy Justin Herbert may want to push the ball downfield more often, but Ekeler’s role will still likely be prominent in this offense.
Verdict: OVER
TD % on carries inside five-yard line among 25 most-used goal line RBs in 2022:
1. Austin Ekeler (75%)
2. Derrick Henry (66.7%)
3. Cam Akers (62.5%)
4. Ezekiel Elliott (56.3%)?
…
23. Rhamondre Stevenson (28.6%) ?
24. Travis Etienne (20%)
25. Kenneth Walker (11%)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 14, 2023
Josh Jacobs (LV)
Projection: 1228 rush yards, 292 receiving yards, 10.6TDs
Fresh off leading the league in rushing yards, Jacobs probably hoped to have a big fat contract by now, but it hasn’t come to fruition. He will likely sort out his differences with the Raiders at some point soon, then return to the team ready to dominate their backfield once again.
Jacobs’s rushing yardage might regress from the 1600 yards he had in 2022 and move closer to his career average of 955 per year. It’s the receiving work that really stands out though. He has been over the projection of 292 in both of the last two years. The projection of 39.8 catches would be a dip from the last two years in which Jacobs caught 50-plus.
With Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, the receptions could even increase for Jacobs. Garoppolo’s average depth of target has been under seven yards in three of the last four seasons and he looks for his RBs with regularity.
Verdict: Rushing – PUSH, Receiving – OVER
Jonathan Taylor (IND)
Projection: 1260 rush yards, 230 receiving yards, 9.3TDs
After hitting the highest of highs in 2021, Taylor could do with a good season to prove that it wasn’t an outlier season, and that he deserves the contract he has publicly sought after. Even in 2022’s disappointing season, Taylor was rushing for 78.3 yards per game, which extrapolates to 1331 yards over the course of a season. It’s the rest of his numbers that could be shakier.
Taylor is projected for 33 receptions totaling 230 receiving yards, but his career average is 33.0 while playing with less athletic quarterbacks than Anthony Richardson. Taylor’s previous QBs were more prone to checking down to a running back.
Verdict: UNDER
Najee Harris (PIT)
Projection: 1037 rush yards, 268 receiving yards, 8.3TDs
Harris regressed in fantasy terms during 2022, partly because Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t there to check the ball down every time he panicked. Harris also has to fend off teammate Jaylen Warren, who made the most of his opportunities last season.
Warren outproduced Harris in Yards Per Carry (4.8 vs 3.8) and Yards Per Reception (8.3 vs 5.5) as a rookie last year. Harris blamed his lack of explosiveness on injuries, but it might just simply be that Warren is a more explosive player.
Verdict: UNDER
Check out this run by Jaylen Warren. Talk about change of direction. Four cuts on this play to pick up the first down. Powerful lower half that allows him to make these moves. #Steelers pic.twitter.com/6sGqRtTvya
— Alex Kozora (@Alex_Kozora) August 15, 2023
Miles Sanders (CAR)
Projection: 1005 rush yards, 209 receiving yards, 6.8TDs
The Panthers gave Sanders one of the few good running-back contracts in free agency. Since then, they’ve talked him up as a three-down threat. Sanders has averaged 65 rushing yards per game through his four years with the Eagles, and now he’s free of a committee approach.
Sanders will be running behind a good offensive line and with a rookie quarterback. It stands to reason the Panthers could lean into his rushing ability. Sanders will need to average 59 yards per game to break 1005, which doesn’t seem too tall a task.
As for Sanders’ receiving projection, he hasn’t broken 200 yards since his rookie season when he had 510. That year, he was under the guidance of new Panthers’ running back coach Duce Staley. There’s an element of risk here, but Chuba Hubbard hasn’t had a great training camp, so Sanders is unlikely to be pushed too much for the receiving duties.
Verdict: OVER
Twitter: the Panthers don't want Miles Sanders to catch passes
Scott Fitterer and Frank Reich: How about 50 receptions, just like the last time you played for Duce Staley? pic.twitter.com/Ht9xK4TNhP
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) August 8, 2023
D’Andre Swift (PHI)
Projection: 556 rush yards, 335 receiving yards, 6.7TDs
The Lions traded Swift for peanuts to no longer have him be their problem. Now, the Eagles seem set to deploy a committee with at least three backs, including Kenneth Gainwell as the favorite for the third down and two-minute drill snaps.
If Swift isn’t getting that work, it’s fair to wonder what role the Eagles see him having. It’s also worth mentioning that the Eagles targeted running backs at a league-low 12% in 2022.
Verdict: UNDER
David Montgomery (DET)
Projection: 773 rush yards, 278 receiving yards, 7.3TDs
A year ago, Jamaal Williams rushed for over 1000 yards and 17 touchdowns while playing only 39% of the snaps for Detroit. They saw upgrading the running-back room as a priority, leading to the addition of Montgomery during free agency.
While Jahmyr Gibbs could also have a great season, this Lions’ offense isn’t moving away from being a run-heavy and play-action-based offense. Montgomery has had over 290 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons despite playing with a dual-threat quarterback in Chicago.
Verdict: OVER
J.K. Dobbins (BAL)
Projection: 890 rush yards, 165 receiving yards, 8.3TDs
The Hold-In is over. Dobbins is back at Ravens’ training camp fully healthy for the first time in almost two years. Through his rookie contract, Dobbins has averaged 11.2 touches per game. That isn’t ideal, but there is reason to believe things can change with Todd Monken calling plays.
In 2016 and 2017, when Monken was the OC in Tampa, Doug Martin averaged 17.1 touches per game. In 2018, Peyton Barber averaged 15.9 under Monken. When the OC was in Cleveland in 2019, Nick Chubb averaged a whopping 21.3 touches per game.
Monken’s love for screen passes is well known. If Dobbins is finally trusted with a large workload, as well as seeing even a slight uptick in the receiving game, it absolutely could be wheels up for him in 2023.
Verdict: OVER
Nick Chubb targets per game
2018: 1.8
2019: 3.1*
2020: 1.5
2021: 1.8
2022: 2.2*only year with Todd Monken as OC
(This is a JK Dobbins tweet)
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) August 15, 2023
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