The NFL season is merely a few hundred hours away. With preseason and training camp news coming thick and fast, Average Draft Positon (ADP) is fluctuating violently for every one-handed catch, juke and no-look pass.
Over on Sleeper, the drafts are happening at a higher volume than any other point this offseason, and the ADP is as up and down as Trey Lance‘s camp reports. This series has looked at the best-value players on Sleeper for several months now, and as the drafts begin to really count, these players stand out as the best values:
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Best Fantasy Football Draft Values on Sleeper
David Montgomery (RB – DET) | ADP: 82.1
The Lions moved on from Jamaal Williams, making a rather obvious like-for-like replacement in their minds by signing David Montgomery. The former Bear is a player who hasn’t always been efficient but has delivered some big fantasy performances. Williams had over 1,000 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns in 2022, and now Montgomery likely finds himself in that role. Yet, he’s being drafted two rounds lower than he was in 2022 when he was in Chicago.
Montgomery’s situation has been upgraded along with his offensive line, yet nobody is excited about him. Montgomery is not a sexy player, but he is in the best situation of his career. If Jahmyr Gibbs fails to find his feet, Montgomery could be a league-winner. With Gibbs flashing during camp, Montgomery’s ADP has actually dipped three spots in the last month. Don’t let the dip pass you by.
Love Jahmyr Gibbs (RB16), but his 12 rankings above David Montgomery's ADP (RB28) insult Montgomery's value. Don't forget Montgomery has hands too. Personally, I think both eat as RB2s.#Lions
— ????? ???? (@Craig_Jeru) August 12, 2023
Devin Singletary (RB – HOU) | ADP: 132.3
The Texans seem content to roll with Dameon Pierce as their RB1, giving him a large share of the opportunities. Still, it also became evident in Pierce’s rookie year that he tired as the season went on. The Texans needed someone younger and, frankly, better than Rex Burkhead as Pierce’s backup.
Devin Singletary has never been electric for fantasy football, but he will have opportunities behind Pierce, and the Texans have an offensive line that could be a top-10 unit this year. If the Texans decide to lean run heavy, then there’s no reason to believe Singletary can’t have useful weeks. Plus, if anything were to happen to Pierce, Singletary would be immediately an every-week RB2.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL) | ADP: 140.6
Since the start of training camp when Rashod Bateman was placed on PUP, his ADP has dropped by over 30 spots. However, the news that Bateman would start camp on the PUP list was no surprise to anyone who had listened to John Harbaugh talk about how the Ravens would take it slowly and make sure Bateman came back 100% when he did.
Ravens pass-catchers are still being priced up as if Baltimore is in the Greg Roman era, and Rashod Bateman’s ADP, in particular, stands out as if drafters are more concerned about him than they need to be. Odell Beckham Jr. might be the highest-paid receiver on the Ravens, but he’s much more likely to be used in situational plays and in the red zone than Bateman, who likely leads the position in snaps. Bateman’s career has been interrupted by injuries but he’s healthy now, and in the words of Lamar Jackson, “he’s WR1.”
Lamar Jackson and Rashod Bateman, together again at last pic.twitter.com/WoANUlDVf6
— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) August 19, 2023
Gerald Everett (TE – LAC) | ADP: 166.9
The Chargers are set for a bounce-back season after Justin Herbert dealt with injuries last year. That, combined with tepid playcalling, saw his average depth of target hit a career-low 6.4 yards per attempt. With Kellen Moore calling the plays, we should expect the Chargers to open things up more. While the addition of Quentin Johnston makes the wide receiver room trickier to predict, Gerald Everett is still the TE1 in this offense.
We’ve seen enough from him and Herbert to know that the two can be a good pairing for fantasy football, with Everett finishing as TE13 in points per game last season. Over the last month, there has been nothing but neutral to positive reports about Everet. However, his ADP has fallen 16 spots. He is absolutely the late-round tight end to leave your drafts with.
Brock Purdy (QB – SF) | ADP: 182.7
As a former Trey Lance Truther, it pains me no end to say this, but the 49ers have done nothing but support Brock Purdy as the QB1 in San Francisco. Purdy appears to be doing well in his recovery from surgery, and while Jimmy Garoppolo was a tepid quarterback with such weapons, Purdy displayed a little more gung-ho attitude as the starter and had 16 or more points in four of his five regular season starts.
Getting a starting quarterback this late in the draft with such elite weapons is a no-brainer. When Purdy is declared healthy, we’ll see a huge jump in his ADP, which has already risen 40 spots in the last month.
Tank Bigsby (RB – JAX) | ADP: 161.3
After another impressive preseason outing, Tank Bigsby’s ADP might not stay in the 160 range for much longer. Still, even a jump of 30 spots will leave his ADP languishing behind where it’s got to in best ball formats.
Bigsby is a good pass-catcher and an excellent short-yardage option, which can lead to high-value touches and create a fantasy floor. Travis Etienne is not a good short-yardage back, managing to turn 40 red zone carries into only four touchdowns last year. Etienne will likely keep plenty of the between-the-20s work in the hope he turns in explosive plays like we’ve seen him do before. However, Bigsby can have a role from day one and outplay his ADP.
Every touch Tank Bigsby got in the Jaguars 2nd preseason game. #DUUUVAL #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/H3Xarii2xG
— ImBearingDown (@ImBearingDown) August 19, 2023
Nico Collins (WR – HOU) | ADP: 172.6
The Texans are still a young, rebuilding team that could use some star power. But in that absence, Nico Collins can enter the season as the clear WR1. Collins was expected to emerge in 2022, but he struggled through injuries and only played nine full games, scoring an average of 9.7 PPR points. What makes him undervalued, though, is that he was on pace for almost 120 targets when healthy, and from week 10 to week 13, he had two games with 10 targets. Now that Brandin Cooks is no longer with the team and the Texans have upgraded to C.J. Stroud at quarterback, Collins should have plenty of opportunity to potentially lead this team in targets.
Marvin Mims Jr. (WR – DEN) | ADP: 210.6
Sean Payton traded up to acquire Marvin Mims Jr. with his first selection as head coach of the Broncos. Mims is exactly the type of undersized vertical threat that Payton has loved to utilize throughout his career. With the current state of Broncos receivers, Mims should see opportunities early. Tim Patrick suffered an Achilles injury, which means he’s set to miss the entire season for the second-consecutive year. In addition, KJ Hamler has a heart condition that will sideline him for at least a month.
If Mims Jr. is on the field and playing as a deep threat, some high-value targets could go his way. This isn’t a pick for Week 1, but if you’re playing with deep enough benches to draft and stash him, it’s absolutely worthwhile, particularly in case one of Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton gets moved before the trade deadline.
Zamir White (RB – LV) | ADP: 220.3
In 2022, Zamir White was entirely unimpressive, totaling 16 touches for 66 yards in a disappointing rookie campaign. Josh Jacobs likely returns to the Raiders soon. He has very little choice but to do so if he’d like to be paid this year. Still, it’s a bit more possible than it was that White has a bigger role in 2023.
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