In Underdog’s Best Ball Mania (BBM) III tournament, 239 different non-quarterbacks were drafted in Round 18 (the last round) of drafts in the final two weeks of drafting. Of those 239, just 15 recorded enough average pick points (65) to be among the top 100 flex players in 2022. Obviously, it’s rare for last-round picks to make a meaningful difference in best ball, but if we can highlight which players even have a slightly above-average chance of doing so, it will give us an edge against a field of over 600,000 contestants.
Depending on the stacks you’re building out or the roster construction you’re filling out, any of these players could be viable options. None of these are sexy picks by any means (they’re 18th-round picks for a reason), but it’s about identifying dart throws that at least have a chance at hitting the board even if it’s not a bullseye.
Here is a list of several running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends that I’m considering drafting with my final draft pick as they all currently have Round 18 ADPs on Underdog. Additionally, I have provided a brief description of his value proposition based on preseason usage, trends, and news. I’ll be updating this list for the last couple of weeks of the preseason as ADPs shift and player news emerges. Below is a closer look at a few players.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Fantasy Football Draft Dart Throws
This is a complete fade of Jameson Williams, who faces a 6-week suspension to start the season and has struggled mightily this preseason while dealing with a hamstring injury that currently has him sidelined. Even before that, Josh Reynolds was reportedly getting a significant share of the first-team reps. He’s one of my favorite last-round targets right now.
This is truly a swing-for-the-fences pick as you’re drafting a wide receiver attached to a quarterback with as wide of a range of outcomes as any in the league this year. But, Josh Downs (one of my favorite pre-draft prospects) appears to have solidified his role as Indianapolis’ primary slot receiver. He played (primarily out of the slot) with the starters in the Colts’ second preseason game while his primary competition, Isaiah McKenzie played well into the third quarter.
In the final rounds of drafts, I want to attach myself to players on high-powered offenses in ambiguous situations, and that fits Deonte Harty to a T. The Bills didn’t bring in any new wide receiver competition this offseason (though they did draft Dalton Kincaid) and Harty has usurped both Trent Sherfield and Khalil Shakir as Buffalo’s WR3 and primary slot receiver.
Deonte Harty is the Bills WR3.
A starter in three WR sets.
Ran a route on 50% of dropbacks.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 20, 2023
The WR4 in Los Angeles is potentially more valuable than the WR3 on a lot of teams. Should one of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, or Quentin Johnston go down, Palmer should slot right in and would be catching passes from Justin Herbert. There’s also a chance, given Johnston’s preseason struggles, that Palmer could split time with him early on as Palmer has been rested for the preseason games with the other starters while Johnston continues to get some reps.
Similar to Palmer, rookie Andrei Iosivas holds a lot of contingent value should one of Cincinnati’s top three wide receiver options go down. Cincinnati runs one of the highest rates of 11 personnel, so I wouldn’t expect them to change their philosophy even if the players change. He’s also been pretty impressive in limited preseason work thus far and played all but one snap with the starters in Week 2 of the preseason.
Puka Nacua & Tutu Atwell (WR – LAR)
Ever since Sean McVay started coaching the Rams they have been one of the most frequent users of 11 personnel, and that shouldn’t change. The Rams also to project as one of the pass-heavier teams given who they’re starting on defense and not being able to hold opposing teams. In any case, both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell, who are competing for the Rams’ WR3 spot, were rested with the other starters in their second preseason game, indicating they’ve each solidified a spot on the roster. I give the edge of being the WR3 to Nacua as the Rams’ more recent draft indulgence (and the fact that Atwell hasn’t shown much in his first two years). But, similar to the 49ers backfield, I have no issue mixing either of these guys into my final-round player pool.
Atlanta may not pass a ton, but Mack Hollins is firmly the WR2 on the team, so he should see the field a decent amount. Plus, he’s now built like a Mack truck.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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