With wide receivers being pushed up draft boards at an increasing rate, it can be easy to feel locked out of the receiver position if you wait too long. More and more drafters are coming around to Zero RB as a draft tactic, and the key is always to hit on the correct type of running back when you choose to select one.
Typically, this strategy refers to waiting until round six or later for your first running back. In this article, we’ll touch on players with an average draft position (ADP) from the sixth round onwards.
The ADP in this article is based on FantasyPros Consensus PPR ADP covering four different platforms.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Zero RB Targets (2023 Fantasy Football)
James Cook (RB – BUF) – ADP 75.5
For much of the offseason, it was assumed that Damien Harris could eat into James Cook’s workload enough that he might not be as valuable as we’d like for fantasy football purposes. In the final preseason game, we saw this come to fruition with Harris vulturing a James Cook touchdown inside the five-yard line. However, where Cook is going, we can live with some weeks like that.
The Bills have a good offensive line, and we expect them to score plenty of touchdowns, not to mention Cook will generate some with his explosive abilities. For a Zero RB team, finding a running back at this cost, who will see the majority of running back snaps in a prolific offense, it makes a lot of sense.
David Montgomery (RB – DET) – 86.3
It’s easy to project the Lions’ current running backs for a like-for-like fit for what they had last year in Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. David Montgomery is similar to Jamaal Williams, and D’Andre Swift has been replaced by Jahmyr Gibbs. Williams had over 1,000 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns in 2022, and now Montgomery likely finds himself in that role, yet he’s being drafted two rounds lower than he was in 2022 when he was a member of the Bears.
Montgomery’s offensive situation has been upgraded, and his offensive line is better, but nobody is excited about him. Gibbs is slightly undersized as a running back, and if anything happened to him, David Montgomery would be an every-week fringe RB1.
Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) – 101.0
It was expected that the Bears might have been taking a heavy committee approach with this backfield. Still, there are signs that this might actually fall heavier into Khalil Herbet’s lap, with D’Onta Foreman a rumored cut candidate and Roschon Johnson unlikely to play more than passing downs to open the year. Last year, Herbert flashed at times, out-carrying David Montgomery 5.7 yards per carry to 4.0, with a big run rate of 5.88% compared to Montgomery’s 1.55%.
Jeff Wilson (RB – MIA) – 153.3
The Miami Dolphins certainly don’t seem ready to hand over this backfield to rookie Devon Achane, who is already dealing with an injury, which furthers the skeptics’ claims that his size might not hold up in the NFL. Meanwhile, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson were paid enough money that the team is invested in them, and unless they suddenly pull off a trade for Jonathan Taylor, it looks likely the pair will be the snap leaders to start the season.
Wilson is the younger of the two veterans at age 27, compared to Mostert, who is 31 years old. Wilson is the cheapest of the three options and might be the best bet of all of them.
Jaylen Warren (WR – MIA) – 166.3
If you’ve been busy in the best ball streets, you’ll probably be surprised to see Jaylen Warren’s ADP languishing 40 or so spots behind his best ball ADP. Pittsburgh beat-writers have constantly talked about how good Jaylen Warren looked in training camp. Meanwhile, Najee Harris is being called out by Le’Veon Bell for the weight he’s currently at. Harris’s opportunity share was 83% in 2021, but it dropped to 63% in 2022, with Warren taking some of the work away.
Warren outproduced Harris in yards per carry with 4.8 to Harris’s 3.8 and had 8.3 yards per reception to Harris’s 5.5. Harris will open the year as the clear back, but Warren may have standalone value, and if Harris were to get injured, Warren would be a top-24 back each week.
Tank Bigsby (RB – JAC) – 173.3
Everything the Jaguars have done this offseason regarding their running back room has shown that they don’t believe in Travis Etienne as a three-down back. Dating back to the combine when Doug Pederson stated, unprompted, that the team was looking to add another back and then selecting Tank Bigsby with the 88th overall pick in the draft.
Bigsby is a good short-yardage back, something that Etienne struggled with in 2022, turning 40 red zone carries into only four touchdowns. Bigsby can also play in the passing game, which allows him two avenues to high-value touches. Another elite handcuff in the late rounds.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI) – 192.3
The Eagles committee approach might be one we’re best served to stay away from, but the one thing in the pro column for Kenneth Gainwell is that he has a clearly defined role. The Eagles will continue to use him in the hurry-up offense and in passing-down situations, with beat writers suggesting he could have as many touches as any back in this backfield. If we cannot find ceiling outcomes, then defined roles are a fine fallback for Zero RB teams.
Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN) – 207.0
Preseason has seen Tyjae Spears’ ADP climb on best ball sites, but on Sleeper, it’s still lagging over 60 picks behind where you’ll select him in a best ball draft. Spears might not have an ACL, but he’s running well and looks explosive, with a mean stiff arm to boot. Derrick Henry is entering his age 29 season and can’t fight off Father Time forever, a task which will be even tougher with the tough-running Spears behind him, who put up 1586 yards and 19 rushing touchdowns in his final collegiate season.
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