This is my third installment of this article, and it will be my last. We’re in the thick of drafts right now, and I’ve gathered more information over the last two weeks than in the last two months. Draft season is always a great time to get a read on how the fantasy community feels about some players, and I’m shocked by some of the love shown for some of these guys.
Depending on where they fall, any player can be a good value in any draft, but these guys are being taken way too early!
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
8 Overpriced Players to Avoid on Yahoo! Drafts (2023 Fantasy Football)
Quarterbacks
Everyone in the fantasy community seems excited about Lawrence, but I’m unwilling to pay this price. The former top pick is the QB7 on Yahoo right now, going ahead of guys like Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott. The Herbert pick is my biggest gripe because I can’t imagine taking T-Law over someone as talented as Herbert. Most people expect Lawrence to take a significant leap with Calvin Ridley joining the team, but we’ve never seen him be productive enough to warrant this draft price.
He finished 14th in fantasy points per game last season after finishing 22nd in his rookie campaign. Herbert was the QB2 just two years ago, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him return to that player after some bad luck last season. The jump is encouraging, but taking him before Herbert is one of the most questionable decisions I see regularly in drafts.
Running Backs
We were excited about Stevenson a few weeks ago but are horrified now. The Patriots are notorious for showcasing a running back committee, and the singing of Ezekiel Elliott indicates that’s what we’re looking at once again. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Zeke get half of the early-down work and almost all of the goal-line carries. That cripples Stevenson’s lofty fantasy price, being taken in the third round of most drafts.
When Stevenson played with Damien Harris two years ago, he had just 606 rushing yards and 123 receiving yards. While we expect better numbers than those, it’s really discouraging that he had 10 or fewer carries in five of his final seven games of last season.
Here we are with another player that was killed by a free-agent signing. This was actually the biggest signing on the running back market, with New York locking down Dalvin Cook. People forget how special Cook has been over recent years, recording at least 1,135 rushing yards in four straight years. He’s also averaging 43 catches for 350 yards in that span, and there’s no chance he’s not utilized in this offense.
That sucks for a talented player like Hall, who was going off in his rookie season before tearing his ACL. Any player returning from a torn ACL has a red flag next to their name, and that flag became a 100-foot banner when Cook was signed.
We have to do this with Dillon every year, and I don’t understand why. We all know this guy is talented, but it doesn’t matter since he’s a backup. People seem to discount that AJ is a backup to one of the best backs in football, with Adam Jones dominating touches in Green Bay. That’s led to Dillon averaging 787 rushing yards on 187 carries over the last two years.
Most backups are usually relevant because of their work in the passing game as a third-down back, but he’s averaging just 31 catches for 259 yards in that same span. Dillon’s showcased an ugly floor, too, scoring fewer than 7.2 fantasy points in 10 games last year while never cracking 20 fantasy points. Rachaad White, Khalil Herbert and James Cook are all being drafted in the same area, and all of those guys are expected to be starters!
Wide Receivers
I’m always shocked to see how high Olave goes in every draft. Everyone expects this sophomore to take a significant leap this season, but people are forgetting that Michael Thomas is making his return as well. If Thomas returns to 75% of the player we saw before, Olave will have a hard time returning value as the WR12 and 31st player off the board. Thomas averaged 117.5 catches for 1,378 yards on 150.5 targets through his first four years.
We don’t expect him to return to that, but he still averaged 6.7 catches per game in limited time over the last three years. It’s not like Olave was some prodigy in his rookie season either, finishing as the WR27 in points per game. He also struggled with a ton of usage, ranked 20th in targets and 10th in air yards. He likely won’t surpass those usage numbers if Thomas remains healthy, which makes it shocking that Olave is going ahead of receivers like Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, Amari Cooper and Deebo Samuel.
Calvin Ridley (JAC)
I’m excited to see what Ridley does in his return to the NFL, but this draft price is insane. People expect Ridley to return to the stud we saw in 2020, but that was the only time he lived up to this draft price. He averaged just 11.1 fantasy points per game before getting suspended in the 2021 season and averaged just 63.5 catches for 843.5 receiving yards through his first two years. That’s closer to what we anticipate this season because he hasn’t played in nearly two years and is stepping into a new system.
It’s an offense with a ton of pieces, too, with Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Zay Jones and Travis Etienne all expected to get work! Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin and DJ Moore are all going after Ridley, and I’d rather have any of those three with so many question marks staring at Ridley.
Are we so sure that Hopkins still has it? At one point, this was the best wideout in the NFL, but every player eventually hits a wall. It looks like Hop has hit it recently, combining for 106 catches and 1,289 receiving yards over the last two years. We used to see Hopkins post that sort of line through Week 12 of an All-Pro season, but injuries have forced him off the field recently. The lack of interest during free agency also horrifies me because these teams know better than anyone if a guy still has it.
Landing in Tennessee is nothing special either because the Titans had the third-fewest passing yards and pass attempts in the NFL last year. An oft-injured veteran in a running offense is a recipe for disaster, especially when you can get guys like Diontae Johnson, Michael Pittman and Mike Evans at least 20 picks later.
Tight Ends
I live by a law when it comes to drafting tight ends. I want six guys, and if I don’t get any of them, I’ll punt the position altogether. Goedert is the only other guy in the Top 7 I want to avoid, with Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Darren Waller, TJ Hickenson, and Kyle Pitts all being solidifiable picks. Goedert is the one that I don’t want because he’s being taken ahead of Pitts and Waller. That makes no sense because those two should be the focal points of their passing game, while Goedert is the third option, at best!
AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith get all the receiver targets, and Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift should also get plenty of targets out of the backfield. You’d need a career year for Goedert to be a good value at TE5, recording 58 receptions and five touchdown passes in 2019. It’s hard to believe those are his career highs, but it shows you just how overvalued this guy is in the fantasy community.
More Commissioner Site Guides
- Yahoo (Undervalued)
- ESPN (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- Sleeper (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- FFPC (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- RTSports (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- NFFC (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- Fantrax (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- MFL (Undervalued | Overvalued)
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