Fantasy football is a game of risk. Winning your league requires taking chances and making high-upside picks. But you can’t draft a team entirely comprised of upside. Your team should also include safe, reliable players that you know will get the job done.

Let’s discuss the safest players to draft in 2023 and the value they bring to your fantasy team. We’ll break it down position by position and feature players being drafted outside the top five at their respected positions.

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The Safest Players to Draft (2023 Fantasy Football)

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

Coming off a QB2 finish in 2021, Justin Herbert disappointed as QB11 last season. His top weapons missed significant portions of the season, and he dealt with a rib injury that hurt his mobility.

Herbert is now healthy, and the Chargers drafted Quentin Johnston to strengthen their receiving corps and hired Kellen Moore to boost their passing attack. Herbert is one of the safest players to draft in 2023 because he has an ADP of QB7, a huge discount for his ceiling, and low risk if his worst-case scenario floor is QB11.

Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN)

Kirk Cousins is a quarterback you can draft as a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2, and be very assured he’ll finish around his ADP. Cousins finished as QB7 overall last year, averaging 18 fantasy points per game – an average that puts him at QB11.

He’s an extremely stable option in a high-volume offense with the league’s best receiver, a top-three tight end and one of the top receiving prospects of the 2023 NFL Draft. Aside from one or two bad weeks, he typically provides a very stable floor.

Running Backs

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

Fantasy managers are understandably lower on Najee Harris after an underwhelming 2022, but he is still one of the safest players to draft in 2023. Coming off a year where he finished as RB14, Harris is being drafted as RB13 and is a very ADP-appropriate RB1.

Harris spent a significant portion of 2022 playing through a Lisfranc injury and averaged just 10.9 fantasy points per game in PPR Weeks 1 through 8. However, after the Steelers’ Week 9 bye week, Harris averaged just over 15 fantasy points per game – very solid and worthy of being your RB1. After being overdrafted as a clear regression candidate, his ADP is back on track, and you can’t ask for a safer, low-end RB1.

Aaron Jones (RB – GB)

Although Aaron Jones is a clear committee back, he’s still one of the safest picks at value for his ADP. Despite sharing a backfield with AJ Dillon for the past two years, Jones continues to finish as an RB1. The last time Jones finished outside of an RB1 was in 2018. That’s one of the more impressive, consistent runs of success at running back in the league.

Quarterback changes do occasionally mean changes in usage at running back, but targets to the running back have been a staple within Matt LaFleur’s offense. Jones’ role should remain unchanged this season.

Wide Receivers

DJ Moore (WR – CHI)

DJ Moore isn’t the flashiest option at receiver, having never finished as a WR1. However, you earn the title of one of the safest players to draft when you finish in the top 24 every season outside of your rookie year. This is despite having to deal with one of the league’s worst quarterback situations throughout your career.

Moore should continue his WR2 reign. It’s also possible that Fields makes a leap as a passer, and Moore finishes substantially higher than his ADP. There’s very little downside to Moore as Fields’ clear WR1 and good upside if the Bears increase pass volume.

Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)

At an ADP of WR31, Diontae Johnson is truly one of the safest picks you can make in your fantasy draft. Johnson saw a dip in production in every metric, resulting in a WR30 finish in 2022. The Steelers were going through an adjustment period with rookie quarterback growing pains. The biggest issue in Johnson’s production was he failed to score a single touchdown, which he is unlikely to repeat. His current ADP is essentially at his worst-case scenario floor. Johnson is a low-risk investment that offers high upside.

Tight End

At tight end, we’ll make an exception to the top-five rule because outside of Travis Kelce, there’s no true lock at tight end.

T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET)

T.J. Hockenson thrived in Minnesota’s offense last year. Excluding the Vikings’ final game, where starters didn’t complete the game, Hockenson was TE2 in games with the Vikings, averaging nine targets per game – the same as Kelce. Unlike the Chiefs’ tight end, Hockenson is not the first look in the Vikings’ offense, but the Vikings are a high pass volume offense. Despite the addition of Jordan Addison, Hockenson’s targets should remain stable. Hockenson isn’t cheap, but he’s a high-upside, low-volatility option.

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