Let’s dive into fantasy football sleepers! I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Be prepared to find hidden talents across all teams, including those in unexpected situations like the Arizona Cardinals. My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform).
Get ready to make strategic moves and uncover the next breakout stars! Here are my top fantasy football sleepers for all NFL teams. Below we’ll offer a free look at a few of these names.
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
Tyler Conklin finished as the TE16 last season, ending the year with 83 targets (9th) for the second straight season. The Jets TE1’s most appealing trait was his high-end route participation (70%) which ranked 9th among all tight ends in 2022. With an every-down role well within his sights, Conklin is a nice late-round dart throw should he emerge as an Aaron Rodgers go-to target in the red zone.
Mike Gesicki, a tight end known for his versatility as a slot receiver hybrid, was not used correctly last year. But there should be optimism regarding his new fit in the New England Patriots’ wide-open offense, which is begging to give targets away. Recall that in 2021, Gesicki finished sixth in receptions, ninth in receiving yards, fourth in route participation (78%), and fifth in target share (17%) over 18 weeks. These impressive numbers translated to a TE9 finish (TE8 Weeks 1-17) in fantasy football. His utilization as a slot receiver or wide alignment accounted for 94% of his snaps in 2021, granting him an advantage in creating mismatches. And that’s how he projects to play in the 2023 Patriots offense. It’s the perfect fit in Bill O’Brien’s system that puts players in positions to exploit mismatches. Particularly tight ends, such as Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Gesicki has frequently shined brightest when opportunities arise due to injuries or lack of talent to other players within the offense. And that’s exactly how the situation plays itself with him in New England.
I’ve been on the Gerald Everett bandwagon for far too long, but that hardly means I am jumping off anytime soon. Because he’s being vastly underrated after a solid season. He didn’t experience a full-fledged breakout, but he was useable (from tight end standards). He was the TE15 and ranked second on the team in red-zone targets last season despite modest snap usage (58% route participation). In a new offense led by offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, we could see Everett’s route usage spike. We saw firsthand how that role did wonders for Dalton Schultz‘s fantasy upside over the past two seasons. And Everett is still a superior athlete, giving him more upside than Schultz could ever deliver. Last year, Everett ranked 7th in yards after the catch per reception (6.5) while also finishing 8th in receptions (58) and 9th in targets (82). Those were all career highs. Long story short, Everett had a career year in his first year with the Chargers and is cheaper than last season. You know what do to. Mt. Everett 2023 eruption szn.
Rookie tight end and Cowboys 2023 second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker is already dealing with an injury, something that he also dealt with toward the later part of his collegiate career. Any delay by the rookie could create an opportunity for second-year tight end and former 4th-rounder, Jake Ferguson, to get a head start on TE1 duties in Dallas. Last season, Ferguson averaged 4.5 targets per game in two games played with Dalton Schultz sidelined. He ran the most TE routes in those contests, with Week 6 featuring him strictly as a receiver (zero pass-blocking snaps). All in all, he was extremely efficient posting a 86.4% catch rate (4th) while ranking 10th in PFF receiving grade and 9th in yards per route run. His extremely low ADOT at 3.1 suggests that he’s a prime candidate for dump-off passes from Dak Prescott. The TE role in Dallas is really what’s most appealing for fantasy purposes, as we have seen a below-average real-life tight end in Dalton Schultz thrive as Big D’s No. 1 tight end over the past few seasons.
Only Travis Kelce saw more red-zone targets among tight ends than David Njoku last season, but he scored just three times. If Deshaun Watson‘s TD rate positively regresses closer to his career rate (5.8%) another year back into football, Njoku will be a top fantasy tight end in 2023.
The soon-to-be 27-year-old could explode, considering his 2022 usage as a full-time player with top-10 route participation. The athletic pass-catcher finished last season sixth in PFF receiving grade and inside the top 10 in several other efficiency metrics, including yards after the catch and yards per route run. It was easily his best professional season since 2018.
Irv Smith Jr. has still yet to turn 25, but injuries have plagued him over the last two seasons. His impressive sophomore campaign seems like a distant memory, more than an actual way to project him moving forward. At least Smith was able to return from the high-ankle sprain that placed him on IR in 2022, and he will get the chance to be fully healthy during off-season activities. Before his injury in Week 8, ISJ was the TE23 in points per game (5.7) and caught at least two passes in all but one game. The former second-round pick still has talent and could easily rebound on a high-powered Bengals offense that features tight ends plenty in the passing game. His 20% target rate per route run ranked 12th among all tight ends with at least 30 targets in 2022.
Rooke tight end Trey McBride was the TE11 from Weeks 14-18 as his role expanded due to injuries on the Cardinals roster. His major highlight came against the Falcons in Week 17, where he caught 7 balls for 78 yards and 1 TD on ten targets with Marquise Brown active in the lineup. That earned him a top-3 weekly fantasy finish, making him one of just 23 unique tight ends to do so. Obviously, there are a lot of question marks about the potential QB play in Arizona this season. Veteran Zach Ertz also remains on the roster. But we are just looking for any opportunity when it comes to sleeper tight ends. Ertz is coming off a season-ending knee injury suffered in Week 10 and will be 33 by November. McBride should be able to assert himself as the Cardinals TE1 to start the season and hold the job if/when Ertz returns. His decorated college profile – 1,125 receiving yards and 30% target rate per route run in 2021 – suggests he can post points with a starting role. It’s not crazy to think he could be the No. 2 pass-catcher on this offense in 2023.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Hoppen’s Final Round Draft Dart Throws
- DBro’s Pace & Play Calling Changes & Impact
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1 | WR1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
- The Worst Fantasy Football Team You Could Draft at ADP
- 7 Safest Players to Draft | 5 Riskiest Players to Draft
- 5 High-Floor PPR Draft Targets
- 4 Late-Round Fantasy Football Defenses to Draft
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