There are times and places in life when it makes sense to be conservative, but fantasy football doesn’t make the list. As legendary racecar driver Ricky Bobby would say, “If you’re not first, you’re last.” When it comes to fantasy football draft strategy, it often pays to be aggressive. That can mean a number of things, but it primarily means finding upside in players compared to where they’re being drafted. If you hit on enough high-upside players, you’ll find yourself in the fantasy playoffs with a shot at a coveted championship.
We asked our featured experts for their running backs, wide receivers and tight ends with the most upside at their current ADP along with players they’re passing on in that same range.
- AFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
High-Upside Players for Fantasy Football Drafts
Which WR comes with the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP and which player(s) would you pass on with a higher ADP at his position?
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
“The guy is an athletic freak with the size and speed to score from anywhere on the field, but supposed TD regression has everyone running for the hills. The pace he was on isn’t sustainable, but nearly every other metric had CW impressing greatly as a rookie. I prefer him over DJ Moore, who enters a run-heavy system.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)
Gabe Davis (WR – BUF)
“Gabe Davis has the most upside at his current positional half-PPR ADP. No, as many fantasy managers expected, he didn’t break out as a star last season, but he wasn’t as bad as you remember. He finished as the WR35 in average fantasy points per game (minimum 4 games) and WR27 in total points last season. The Bills still haven’t found an additional complement to Stefon Diggs, and I’m buying in on Davis a year after everyone else (post-hype sleeper?). A stat line of 60-1000-10 is doable. Players I’d pass on for Davis: DeAndre Hopkins, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy.”
– Jaime Eisner (The Draft Network)
“It’s time to set an alarm clock and wake up for Gabriel Davis’ post-hype sleeper season (ADP WR41). During a season that burned fantasy managers, Davis still managed to finish as the WR27 while missing two games. This offseason, the team lost their third most targetted receiver in Isaiah McKenzie and drafted Dalton Kincaid in the first round. Given the historic production of rookie TEs, Davis is the locked-in second option for Josh Allen. That’s a situation I’d rather bet on than more talented WRs such as Kadarius Toney and Jahan Dotson (ADP WR38 & WR39).”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
Skyy Moore (WR – KC)
“If you’re searching for wide receiver upside, look no further than Skyy Moore with an ADP in the late WR50s. His rookie season was hardly impressive, but Moore drew rave reviews in Chiefs minicamp and could vault to the top of the WR pecking order in KC with the departures of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason and the oft-injured Kadarius Toney already missing time with a knee issue. I’m passing on Deebo Samuel as a fourth-round pick and top-20 fantasy receiver. The San Francisco quarterback situation is unsettled as Brock Purdy tries to return from UCL surgery, and there are simply too many mouths to feed in the 49ers passing game. Plus, with Christian McCaffrey (and even Elijah Mitchell) in the backfield, Deebo isn’t getting anywhere close to the 59 carries and eight rushing touchdowns that buoyed his fantasy value in 2021.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
“Here is a bold prediction for you: Chris Olave is a 1st round pick in fantasy football for 2024. The kid is special, really special. Derek Carr coming to the Bayou should do wonders for Olave, the true #1 wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints. Is anyone that concerned about Michael Thomas? I am not, and you should not be either. Olave should see rises in every statistical category in 2023, especially touchdowns, where he only registered four a year ago. I will take the #1 receiver in Olave over the likes of Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins, two receivers who are entrenched as number two options in Miami and Cincy, barring injuries to the two superstars that are ahead of them in their respective depth charts.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Jameson Williams (WR – DET) and Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – BAL)
“(Current Expert ADP: Jameson Williams WR 51, Odell Beckham Jr. WR 62). For me, the WR with the most upside is a tie between Jameson Williams and Odell Beckham Jr. Jameson tore up the SEC- including one of the best college defenses ever assembled, Georgia Bulldogs, twice! Ringo’s comp – Jameson Williams reminds me of Randy Moss. As for Beckham, his three-finger catch versus Dallas is the best catch I’ve ever seen. Both the Lions and Ravens should score a bunch of TDs. With their current ADPs sitting at WR 51 and 62, respectively, even factoring in Jameson Williams’s six-game suspension to start the season, you’re getting elite talents for dirt cheap. Sleeper WRs above them I’m passing on: CeeDee Lamb (current ADP WR 6), Davante Adams (current ADP WR 9), Deebo Samuel (current ADP WR 18), Drake London (current ADP WR 23).”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
“Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders – There are several guys with better cases, but they all include “so-and-so getting injured.” Dotson just needs to stay healthy himself so that we can see the full potential he displayed as a rookie. If you take out the couple of games when he was coming back from injury and had his lowest snap and target counts, Dotson was on a 63-catch pace for a thousand yards and 13 touchdowns. If Sam Howell shows that he has even a little something as a thrower, we could see Dotson flourish in the Red Zone after hauling in seven touchdowns in just nine healthy games in 2022. He definitely brings more upside than either Steeler, George Pickens or Diontae Johnson.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
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