We tend to view running back as the only position where handcuffs are commonplace theory, but the truth is that wide receiver handcuffs are just as important, even if they are far harder to predict. When running backs are on the field, there is normally only one running back out there, so it’s a narrower thing to predict who would replace that. With wide receivers, we have to consider their skills and how they might be able to replace the wide receivers ahead of them.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
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- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
WR Handcuffs
Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)
When the Bengals drafted Tee Higgins, many saw him as a pure WR1 straight off the bat, and if it wasn’t for the drafting of Ja’Maar Chase a year later, then it’s possible he’d have delivered even bigger fantasy football returns.
In 2022 Higgins was the WR12, with over 100 targets and over 1000 receiving yards, five games over 15 half PPR points, and four weekly finishes inside the top six wide receivers, along with only four games outside the top 40 wide receivers. Part of taking Tee Higgins is the knowledge that if anything happens to Ja’Maar Chase, you’ve potentially got a top-five wide receiver. In the four games that Chase missed in 2022, Higgins saw his points per game jump by 50% to 18. Along with seeing his receiving yards jump from 52 to 92. That is a huge difference.
The Bengals without Ja'Marr Chase were 4th in EPA/play last year. Tee Higgins during that stretch was on pace for 110 catches, 1577 yards, and 8 touchdowns.
Pay the man @Bengals!pic.twitter.com/qedYDiVvBX
— mike (@bengals_sans) August 7, 2023
DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)
In 2022 Devonta Smith finished as the PPR WR9 in total points after delivering five top 12 weekly finishes. Smith has consistently looked like a player who plays beyond his stature, throwing waste to the claims that he was too slim to play in this league. AJ Brown led the team with a 28.8% target share, but Smith was only a smidge behind with 27.1% and actually led the team in routes run per game with 35.1 to Brown’s 33.8. 2022 was the first year of Brown’s career in which he played a full season, missing seven games over the previous two years. If Brown misses any games, then Devonta Smith will absolutely outplay his draft cost.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
The Seahawks are committing to a fundamental shift in their offensive scheme this year, starting with drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who predominantly plays from the slot. Offensive Coordinator Shane Waldron was previously with the Rams and saw firsthand the damage an elite weapon could do from the slot as Cooper Kupp broke out in L.A. Meanwhile, in 2022 the Seahawks had Marquise Goodwin, D’Wayne Eskridge, Penny Hart, and Cade Johnson rotating through the slot. While Smith-Njigba can’t be described as a like-for-like replacement for either DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett if either were to miss time, his ceiling outcomes would be unlocked in a similar way to Amon-Ra St.Brown when he broke out down the stretch of 2021.
In his last fully healthy season back in 2021, Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the Power 5 with 1,367 yards from the slot
All three of JSN's catches came from the slot in preseason game 1. He’s gonna feast over the middle with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett winning downfield
— Brad Spielberger, Esq. (@PFF_Brad) August 11, 2023
Gabe Davis (WR – BUF)
The Bills were reportedly interested in DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr. at one point or another but ultimately added no additional help at wide receiver and only opted to add Dalton Kincaid in the draft. Kincaid will likely play more like a true wide receiver than a traditional tight end, but it’s unlikely that he replaces a wide receiver in play formations the majority of the time. If anything were to happen to Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis would absolutely see an uptick in volume. While we can go back and forth all day on his true ceiling abilities, what is true is that last year he had four weekly finishes inside the top 13 wide receivers, and with greater volume, perhaps he could deliver even more.
Zay Jones (WR – JAC)
Both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones were excellent in 2022, with Kirk the WR13 and Jones the WR24, but that didn’t stop them from adding Calvin Ridley at the trade deadline, in what might look like a bargain now that Ridley is nearing a return to the playing field. Christian Kirk’s role feels slightly more secure, with him operating out of the slot 77% of the time over the last two years, while Ridley is more of a deep threat, having seen a deep target on 21.1% of his career targets and never having an average depth of target less than 10 yards.
It’s entirely possible for Kirk and Ridley to succeed in this offense, but it might come at Jones’s expense, who had 7.7 targets per game and 802 receiving yards. Both Kirk and Jones ran a route on over 90% of plays, and it feels inevitable Ridley will replace Jones on two-wide receiver sets, even if that’s not what we’ve seen from preseason usage so far. If, however, one or both missed any time, we know exactly what we’d get from Zay Jones.
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC)
The Chargers could be set to go nuclear in 2023 with a healthy Justin Herbert, a healthier offensive line, and Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both healthy and raring to go. Free of the former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and with Kellen Moore now calling the plays, Justin Herbert’s average depth of target will likely get a boost from one of the lowest in the league back to the days of him heaving the ball downfield. Johnston profiles similarly to Mike Williams in some ways, who hasn’t always stayed healthy throughout his career. If he were to miss some time in 2023, Johnston could absolutely hit the ground running and be a difference-maker for fantasy football rosters.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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