Over the last three months, this article has looked at the current ADP on Sleeper, aiming to identify the players currently overpriced. A month ago, Jonathan Taylor was being drafted at the 1.11, which now feels even more overpriced than it did back then. In this month’s edition, it’s going to be more important than ever to find those overpriced players and avoid them. All ADP is taken from single QB PPR drafts.

• Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
• Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
• Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
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Overpriced Players to Avoid on Sleeper (Fantasy Football 2023)

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): ADP – 13.1

There are few sure things in the NFL as much as Patrick Mahomes, but still, in single quarterback formats for a quarterback to be going on the fringes of round one, it’s going to require a god-like season in order to pay off the opportunity cost of taking a position that is easily replaced. In 2022 Mahomes was responsible for five of the top 30 weekly quarterback performances, which is impressive, but not in a realm of its own as Jalen Hurts, who was available much later in drafts, had six of the top 30 performances, and Josh Allen had five. Mahomes is an incredible quarterback, but taking him with one of your first two picks means you’ll be missing out on a potentially elite running back or wide receiver at the top of the draft, and their production is much harder to find later on.

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND): ADP – 18.0

Back in this column for the second straight month, it’s the former RB1 overall from 2021. In best ball drafts, it’s not uncommon to see Jonathan Taylor available in the mid-to-late parts of the third round, but on Sleeper, he’s being pushed up into the middle of the second round fresh off the back of an incredibly disappointing season in 2022. Taylor regressed from being the RB2 in points per game the previous season down to RB19 in 2022 and didn’t look anywhere close to how he did during his breakout year. With Matt Ryan and other bad quarterbacks under center, Taylor found it particularly hard to find the high-value touches he needed, with 76 scoreless attempts between weeks 3-8 in a particularly barren run, where he averaged only 13 receiving yards per game. Now Taylor finds himself playing with a dual-threat quarterback, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see his efficiency improve, but it might come at the cost of work in the receiving game, and for a round-one player, that’s not something we want to hear. If you can get Taylor in the backend of the second, that’s a much more appetizing pick that accounts for some of the risk involved with taking him.

Najee Harris (RB – PIT): ADP – 30.4

Another player going much lower in best ball drafts is Najee Harris, who can slide into the fifth round at times, yet on Sleeper, drafters appear to have more confidence in the third-year back who struggled with injuries in 2022. Jaylen Warren seized that opportunity to take a bigger part of this backfield than many would have expected from an undrafted free agent, and Warren made the most of it, outproducing Harris in yards per carry (4.8 vs. 3.8) and yards per reception (8.3 vs 5.5). Harris blamed his lack of explosiveness on the injury, but it might just simply be true that Warren is a more explosive player. Harris is having a positive training camp, but so is Jaylen Warren, and teams have a history of caring less about draft capital invested in a player as their contract goes on, it shouldn’t be surprising if Warren continues to eat into Harris’s workload.

George Kittle (TE – SF): ADP – 47.5

It seems impossible to ignore the fact that George Kittle’s 2022 touchdown total of 11 is by far an outlier when you look at his career, where he had never managed more than six before last year. Perhaps it’s possible that Brock Purdy utilizes Kittle in a way that Jimmy Garoppolo never did, but it’s also worth noting that Kittle had the second-highest touchdown rate of any tight end who saw over 50 targets, but in the eight games with no touchdowns, he averaged a woefully disappointing 4.9 half PPR points, which is not helping anyone who has paid a fourth-round pick. Kittle dominated against opponents who struggled to defend against tight ends, dominating the Seahawks and Cardinals in particular, with six touchdowns against them across three games. Kittle also experienced massive differences in his returns when Deebo Samuel was missing time, seeing his half PPR points per game jump from 9.14 with Samuel playing all the way up to 18.0 in games Samuel missed. It’s unlikely Kittle’s ADP drops without an injury, and at this price, he’s overvalued by at least a couple of rounds and an easy avoid, without even getting into the topic of the Niners quarterback situation, with Brock Purdy looking shaky in camp.

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN): ADP – 75.5

Over the last month, Javonte Williams’ ADP has remained consistently around this range, with drafters still unsure how to approach the talented player returning from a gruesome injury. There has been some cause for optimism around Williams with a few positive reports about his health, but it’s also hard to ignore that the Broncos saw recruiting Samaje Perine as a priority and have reportedly been interested in Dalvin Cook, who is now a free agent. Williams tore his ACL and LCL in October and anyone who drafted JK Dobbins last year will remember how bumpy returns can be from serious knee injuries, even if Williams’ is a less severe injury. This is all to say before we consider that Sean Payton has consistently talked about wanting to utilize a two-back approach in his offenses.

Jamaal Williams (RB – NO): ADP – 101.9

Another running back who finds himself in a murky situation is Jamaal Williams. It wasn’t long ago that Williams was the 1A in Detroit, rushing for over 1000 yards and scoring a whopping 17 touchdowns as the coaching staff was vindicated for their faith in Williams over Swift. A few months later, Williams has now found his way to New Orleans, where he could be a part of a three-way committee with Alvin Kamara and rookie Kendre Miller. Alvin Kamara’s suspension of only three games was less than it was once thought it might be, meaning Williams will have less of a chance to stake a reasonable workload in this Saints offense, and we need Williams to score plenty of touchdowns in order to be fantasy viable. And while Williams put on a show around the goal line in Detroit, last year Taysom Hill was the Saints preferred option inside the 10-yard line leading the team with 11 carries to Kamara’s eight and scoring five touchdowns in that area compared to Kamara’s two. Williams will have a role in this offense, but will it be worth close to a top hundred pick, that’s very much open for debate.

More Commissioner Site Guides

• Sleeper (Undervalued)
• ESPN (Undervalued | Overvalued)
• Yahoo (Undervalued | Overvalued)
• FFPC (Undervalued | Overvalued)
• RTSports (Undervalued | Overvalued)
• NFFC (Undervalued | Overvalued)
• Fantrax (Undervalued | Overvalued)
• MFL (Undervalued | Overvalued)

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