The 2023 fantasy football season is almost here. Regardless of your draft strategy, fantasy players want to leave the draft with the guys on their must-have list.
Here are two early-round, mid-round, and late-round running backs who fantasy players shouldn’t leave the draft without having on their roster.
The 2023 fantasy football season is almost here. Regardless of your draft strategy, fantasy players want to leave the draft with the guys on their must-have list.
Here are two early-round, mid-round, and late-round running backs who fantasy players shouldn’t leave the draft without having on their roster.
Must-Have Running Backs (2023 Fantasy Football)
ADP via FantasyPros
Early-Round Targets
Bijan Robinson (ATL): ADP 8.3 | RB3
Some won’t draft Robinson in the top 10 because he’s a rookie. However, running backs picked in the top 10 of the NFL Draft tend to have successful rookie seasons. Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley were top-10 draft picks and finished their rookie year as an RB1. The former Longhorn was a better prospect coming out of college than all four and is in an excellent fantasy situation.
Last year, the Falcons had the top running blocking offensive line in the NFL, earning an 83.7 grade from PFF. Furthermore, Chris Lindstrom (93.1) and Kaleb McGary (91.6) finished first and third in PFF run-blocking grades among all offensive linemen. Meanwhile, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson averaged a combined 4.89 yards per rushing attempt and 1.53 yards per attempt before contact in 2022. Imagine how well Robinson will do behind the NFL’s top run-blocking offensive line.
Tony Pollard (DAL): ADP 16.3 | RB7
Pollard had a breakout season last year, finishing as the RB7, averaging 14.3 half-point points per reception (PPR) fantasy points per game. The former Memphis star had his first 1,000-yard rushing season. He also scored 12 touchdowns in 2022 after totaling 10 career touchdowns entering the year. Furthermore, Pollard is a home run threat who can take any rushing attempt to the house.
Last year, the superstar finished third in the NFL in breakaway runs (17) and fourth in breakaway run rate (8.8%). Furthermore, Pollard was fourth in yards per route run (1.82) and eighth in yards created per touch (3.3) among running backs. More importantly, the former Memphis star will have more touches this year after Ezekiel Elliott signed with the New England Patriots. Pollard should have at least 240 rushing attempts after getting 193 last season.
Mid-Round Targets
Cam Akers (LAR): ADP 56.3 | RB22
I have Akers significantly higher in my rankings than the average draft position (ADP) has the former Florida State star. Last year was a season of two halves for the young running back. After having his trade request denied, Akers turned into a superstar to end the year. He was the RB2 over the final four weeks, averaging 18.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The former Florida State star forced a missed tackle on 22.7% of his rushing attempts in those contests.
Akers had a better 2022 season than he got credit for. He averaged 2.78 yards after contact per rushing attempt, the same average as Saquon Barkley. Furthermore, the former Florida State star had 36 missed tackles forced on his 188 rushing attempts. By comparison, Christian McCaffrey has the same 36 missed tackles forced on 244 rushing attempts last season. The Rams didn’t add any meaningful competition this offseason. Akers is prime to have a breakout season in a contract year.
James Cook (BUF): ADP 71.7 | RB30
Unfortunately, Cook didn’t live up to his rookie year expectations, ending the season as the RB45, averaging only six half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, the fantasy football community collectively believes the second-year running back is prime for a breakout season. The Bills lost Devin Singletary this offseason, replacing him with veterans Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. However, the veterans are no threat to Cook’s breakout season.
Last year, the former Georgia star was explosive and dangerous in the open field despite having only 89 rushing attempts. Cook finished first in breakaway run rate (12.1%). Furthermore, 13.5% of his rushing attempts totaled 10 or more yards. Josh Allen recently talked about how significant of a role the running back would have this season. Don’t be surprised if Cook turns into this year’s Rhamondre Stevenson and ends the season as an RB1.
Late-Round Targets
Jaylen Warren (PIT): ADP 146.3 | RB48
While he was an undrafted free agent last year, Warren quickly became the top handcuff in fantasy football. Last season, the former Oklahoma State star averaged 4.9 yards per rushing attempt, ranking 12th among running backs with at least 60 rushing attempts. Furthermore, 14.3% of his rushing attempts total 10 or more yards. Warren also finished 18th in yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.08) among running backs with at least 77 rushing attempts, the same average as Jonathan Taylor.
By comparison, Najee Harris averaged 2.74 yards after contact per rushing attempt last year, the same average as Zonovan Knight and Chuba Hubbard. Meanwhile, Warren was the star of Pittsburgh’s preseason games. The former Oklahoma State star averaged 14.8 yards per rushing attempt and six yards after contact per rushing attempt during the preseason. He also forced five missed tackles on his six rushing attempts. After his impressive rookie season, Warren will have a larger role in 2023.
Roschon Johnson (CHI): ADP 165.3 | RB53
Khalil Herbert is a popular draft target with David Montgomery in Detroit. However, Johnson could be this year’s Dameon Pierce. Not only is the rookie the cheapest Chicago running back to draft, but he has the most upside. Reportedly, the former Longhorn has been the pass running back in pass protection this offseason, something the coaching staff has harped about repeatedly. More importantly, Johnson has passed D’Onta Foreman for the No. 2 running back role.
Last year, Bijan Robinson led college football with 104 missed tackles, while Johnson had 46. However, the first-rounder forced a missed tackle on 40.5% of rushing attempts. By comparison, the fourth-rounder forced a missed tackle on 48.9% of his rushing attempts last season at Texas. Furthermore, Johnson had a higher percentage of rushing attempts totaling 15 or more yards (9.6%) than Robinson (8.2%). Herbert will begin the year as the starter, but it’s only a matter of time until the rookie becomes the lead running back.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
