Let’s dive into fantasy football sleepers! I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Be prepared to find hidden talents across all teams, including those in unexpected situations like the Arizona Cardinals. My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform).
Get ready to make strategic moves and uncover the next breakout stars! Here are my top fantasy football sleepers for all NFL teams. Below we’ll offer a free look at a few of these names.
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
Last season, Chargers No. 3 WR Joshua Palmer ranked 6th in the NFL in routes run. LA was the only team to have three different WRs averaging 35-plus routes run per game. So, there’s a case to be made that even with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams ahead of Quentin Johnston on the current depth chart, the rookie can make a splash in one of the NFL’s most pass-happy offenses heralded by Justin Herbert. He’s big and fast enough to be a downfield weapon, which is perfect for spiked fantasy weeks. The 6-foot-3, 212-pound behemoth totaled 1,067 receiving yards, finishing fifth in his draft class with an elite 3.05 yards per route run. Johnston was a menace with the ball in his hands, finishing seventh in his draft class in yards after the catch per reception (8.9, 19 forced missed tackles). His forced missed tackle rate (38%) ranks first in the class per Sports Info Solutions. As a true freshman at 19 years old, Johnston broke out with a 21% dominator rating in 2020 as the team’s leading receiver, averaging 22.1 yards per reception – fifth best in the FBS.
3️⃣ WR Quentin Johnston has been making explosive plays across the middle and down the sidelines. He's an undervalued asset at his current ADP and fits well in the Kellen Moore scheme, which aims to create chunk plays. https://t.co/XmcRHFUY3N
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 21, 2023
Van Jefferson & Tutu Atwell (LAR)
Tutu Atwell was thrust into a larger role in 2022, and was halfway decent in a horrible situation. He finished the season 28th in expected yards per route run (1.85). However, from Week 12 onward when he started playing a full allotment of snaps, he still ranked outside the top 60 overall among WRs. All things considered, I still think I prefer Van Jefferson to Atwell. From Weeks 10-18, Jefferson was the WR39 coming off a major injury. But his 14% target rate was abysmal. How much of that is injury/QB-related remains to be seen. At least you can bet that Jefferson will be out there running a ton of routes. Allen Robinson ranked 17th in routes run per game last season.
Jordan Addison tends to be cheaper than fellow first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba despite the former having the much better landing spot as the No. 2 WR alongside Justin Jefferson in the Vikings offense. Last season, Adam Thielen was 9th in route participation, running a route on a whopping 94% of dropbacks with 18 red-zone targets. The veteran also ranked 8th in routes run per game (39.5). It’s Addison’s NFL team fit and college profile that have me fully expecting him to hit the ground running. Recall that Addison broke out as an 18-year-old freshman in 2020 with 60 catches for 662 receiving yards and four TDs. The early-age production is a sign of an elite prospect, and it clearly foreshadowed Addison’s rise to becoming one of the best WRs in college football. He transferred to USC from Pittsburgh last year and led the Trojans with 59 catches for 875 yards and eight TDs on 79 targets. But more importantly, the 5-foot-11 and 173-pound wide receiver proved that he could play more outside after spending most of his time in the slot at Pittsburgh.
Isaiah Hodgins seems like a completely forgotten WR, despite the fact that he could lead New York in targets in 2023. Once fully entrenched in the offense from Week 12 onward, Hodgins has zero drops on 45 targets and averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game – equivalent to Chris Olave and Deebo Samuel (WR25). He averaged 9.1 fantasy points per game overall and finished as a top-24 option in 44% of his 9 games played from Weeks 1-17.
The Giants are definitely home to the forgotten WRs. Next up, Darius Slayton. The former fifth-round pick went from an off-season trade/cut candidate to become the WR1 in the Giants offense as the team patchworked a functioning receiving room during the latter portion of the season. From Weeks 5-17, Slayton was the WR31 in total points (WR39 points per game) averaging 8.8 fantasy points, 59 receiving yards and nearly six targets per game (20% target share). The former Day 3 pick was used exclusively as Big Blue’s primary deep threat with a dominant 37% air yards share – a top-12 mark among all WRs. His 1.70 yards per route run represented a career-high and ranked 31st among 54 qualifying WRs with at least 80 targets. He also finished as a top-36 WR in 54% of his 13 contests (seven games). That was equal to the likes of Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams, Adam Thielen and Marquise Brown. He actually finished as a WR3 at a higher rate than D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk and Garrett Wilson.
Slayton re-signed with the Giants in the offseason, inking a two-year deal worth $6M with $4.9 M guaranteed. He is currently the team’s highest-paid WR and should be a lock for a full snap share in 2023. He should be able to slide seamlessly back onto the perimeter as the Giants big playmaker opposite Hodgins, as long as he can fend off 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Hoppen’s Final Round Draft Dart Throws
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
- The Worst Fantasy Football Team You Could Draft at ADP
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