The wide receiver position is usually one of the deeper positions in fantasy football. Finding a sleeper late in the draft could have you soaring up the leaderboard, but if you get a bust early on, it could be hard to recover.
Last look at a few players that you should avoid drafting this season.
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6 Wide Receivers To Avoid In Fantasy Football
Davante Adams (LV): ADP 12 | WR 7
Adams is one of the premiere receivers in the league, but with his current ADP, this is a pass. He’s been lucky to catch balls from Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr, but having Jimmy Garoppolo as his quarterback is a notable step-down.
Jimmy G’s inability to push the ball downfield will have Adams relying heavily on yards after the catch rather than air yards. Last season, Carr finished fourth in intended air yards per pass attempt, and Garoppolo was 25th. The only two wide receivers to finish within the top 20 with Garoppolo appearing in more than ten games are Brandon Aiyuk (15th, 2022) and Deebo Samuel (2nd, 2021), who we know was heavily used in the run game.
It’s too risky to spend an early-round pick when he could finish outside of the top ten.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ): ADP 21 | WR 10
Wilson is another player I believe will have a solid season, but the price tag is too high. He certainly has the potential to finish inside the top 20, but the top ten is a tall order for his situation.
Having Aaron Rodgers is an upgrade compared to what he had in his rookie campaign, but with Rodgers comes his former Green Bay teammate Allen Lazard, and that built-in chemistry will play a factor in the target share.
Wilson also benefited from being on one of the heaviest passing teams because they tended to play from behind. They already have one of the premiere defenses in the league, and with a better offense, they can balance out the running and passing game.
Last season he had some favorable matchups that helped get some huge performances.
Of his five top-11 finishes, three of them came from defenses that were in the bottom 11 in points allowed against wide receivers. This season the Jets have the seventh-toughest schedule for fantasy wide receivers.
D.K. Metcalf (SEA): ADP 32 | WR 15
Metcalf is athletically gifted and has incredible talent, but I’m not comfortable taking that risk at his current ADP.
The Seahawks were a surprising team last season, all thanks to the aerial attack led by Geno Smith. Although Metcalf had a career-high 141 targets and 90 catches, he had a career-low six touchdowns, 11.6 yards per catch, and was the WR24.
The trouble he had was not being able to get the big plays. He was 61st yards per target, 81st in true catch rate, and he was not able to get an advantage against his defenders by being 77th in target separation vs. man.
The Seattle pass options are getting crowded with first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba coming in and Zach Charbonnet, who’s a tremendous dual running back. It will be difficult for Metcalf to garner that top 15 ranking.
Chris Godwin (TB): ADP 67 | WR 26 / Mike Evans (TB): ADP 73 | WR 31
This could impact Tampa’s offense as a whole.
The two primary receivers saw a lot of opportunities in the heavy passing offense. Mike Evans only saw less than eight targets in five of 15 games, was third in the league deep targets, had a 6.01 target quality rate, and a 74.2% catchable target rate. Godwin, out of the slot, saw a lot of easy balls, being tenth in catchable target rate and 17th in target accuracy. This is coming from the high-passing percentage in the league.
Since 2020, the best a Baker Mayfield offense finished in passing play percentage was 27th, and the best catchable pass rate was 36th. All these signs point to a regression for every pass catcher in the Bucs’ offense.
Marquise Brown (ARI): ADP 83 | WR 34
The trade to Arizona looked great for Brown as he was WR5 going into Week 6 last year. He was then sidelined with a foot injury, and upon his return, could not get that magic back, finishing as the WR58 from Weeks 12-18.
The injury and losing Kyler Murray were two large factors, and Brown could be playing without Murray for most of the season.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
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