In the final of four articles around touchdown regression, I am focusing on wide receivers who massively underperformed in the category in 2022 and are therefore due some positive regression in 2023. Remember that positive regression is not a contradiction of terms. It simply means that a player’s TD total is likely to return to the mean if touches and targets remain the same.

As mentioned in my WR negative regression articles, there is a number of reasons why a player could either overachieve or underachieve on their touchdown total. In this instance, we are looking at some potential draft gems who might have a lower ADP than they should since fantasy players don’t like their touchdown total from 2022.

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2023 Positive TD Regression Candidates: Wide Receivers

Let’s look at the leading candidates to positively regress to the mean in the touchdown column in 2023.

Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)

• Actual Touchdowns: 0
• Expected Touchdowns: 7.03
  
• Difference: -7.03

That’s right, Johnson scored zero touchdowns last year. That is despite him being ESPN’s highest-rated receiver for getting open with a 99 Open Score (the league average is rated at 50).

How is this possible? Well, there are three factors. One is a rookie quarterback who took a while to get going. However, Kenny Pickett did show some promise towards the end of the year and is likely to take a decent leap forward in 2023.

The second is the negative playcalling of Matt Canada. The Steelers ranked 27th in yards per play, 28th in touchdowns per game, and 26th in points per game as an offense. Canada will know he will have to improve these metrics if he is to keep his job past the 2023 season.

And lastly, Johnson was just unlucky. The statistics point to that. I said the same thing last year about Miles Sanders and he regressed back to the mean in 2022. To have 86 receptions like Johnson had and not score a touchdown is just absurd. It will not happen again in 2023. Expect Johnson to return 7 touchdowns if he keeps similar target and receptions numbers in 2023.

Chris Godwin (WR – TB)

• Actual Touchdowns: 3
  
• Expected Touchdowns: 8.50
  
• Difference: -5.50

Godwin is on this list despite having one of the greatest regressions in quarterback play in NFL history coming his way. Whilst Godwin is going from Tom Brady to either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, he also gets a much-needed change at Offensive Coordinator. Byron Leftwich is finally out and has been replaced by Dave Canales.

Canales will find ways to get his weapons open. There should also be a slight change in the way Godwin is used this year. It is likely we will see him push down the field more and be used in the redzone offense more.

Godwin did have 15 targets inside the redzone, catching 10 of those passes and scoring all of his touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. However, with more creative play calling, expect all these numbers to increase. The Buccaneers were 25th in redzone scoring offense in 2022. This will increase in 2023 with the weapons of Evans, Godwin and White. Regardless of who is throwing them the ball.

Godwin is an excellent bet to smash his ADP with this positive touchdown regression and is worth taking a chance on in drafts in 2023.

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

• Actual Touchdowns: 9
  
• Expected Touchdowns: 13.72
  
• Difference: -4.72

I mentioned Hill in the wide-receiver negative touchdown regression article as a case to take him over Davante Adams this year. Not that many fantasy players needed that case being made for them.

However, it is worth noting that Hill is due some significant positive touchdown regression this year. Hill only scored 4 touchdowns in the redzone and only got 10 targets and 8 touches. A 50% success rate in the redzone means they will only give him more touches there this year. It would be mad not to.

It is likely we will see Hill find the endzone seven or eight times just from the redzone. And then we are likely to see the cheetah make up the rest of the touchdowns with his big play ability, which he continues to demonstrate year after year. Hill, with his touchdown regression, is a lock to be a top-four receiver in 2023 if he remains healthy. And, if the Miami Dolphins give him the ball in the redzone.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)

• Actual Touchdowns: 4
  
• Expected Touchdowns: 8.09
  
• Difference: -4.09

Pittman managed over 140 targets and 99 receptions. And yet, he only found the endzone four times in 2022. Three of those times were in the redzone, scoring off 8 catches and 12 targets. However, there was none of the big plays that we have come to expect from Pittman.

This season, there is renewed optimism in Pittman. He is being paired with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, who has a much bigger arm than his predecessor did in Indianapolis. There are also new offensive coaches in Indianapolis in the form of Shane Steichen as head coach and Jim Bob Cooter as offensive coordinator.

These coaching changes, with little competition to Pittman for the targets he garnered in 2022, should see a significant positive regression to the mean. Despite having a rookie quarterback, it would be a shock to not see Pittman score at least 6 or 7 times in 2023, based on his 2023 usage.

Gabe Davis (WR – BUF)

• Actual Touchdowns: 7
  
• Expected Touchdowns: 10.92
  
• Difference: -3.92

One of the major reasons for Davis’s shortfall in touchdowns was a change in offensive coordinator. Brian Daboll departed to be the Head Coach of the New York Giants and Ken Dorsey was promoted from within to be given his first Offensive Coordinator job. Dorsey did a nice job last year. However, there is a learning curve in the job and it is expected the Bills will be more efficient on offense in 2023.

Add this increased efficiency to the fact the Bills didn’t add any competition for Davis in the offseason, with the exception of Trent Sherfield and 5th-round pick Justin Shorter. Neither of these guys is likely to compete for targets against the likes of Davis.

Davis benefited from open coverage when Stefon Diggs received extra attention. Expect this to be exploited again in 2023 and for Davis to find the end zone a few more times in 2023 especially as he has game-changing speed and a knack for getting over the top of the defensive backs. Davis is another late-round option in your drafts that is worth exploring based on this positive touchdown regression coming.

More Regression Analysis

• Target Regression Candidates: RB | WR | TE
• Touchdown Regression Candidates: RB | WR
• Target Share Fallers | Target Share Risers
• Target Analysis & Predictions: AFC | NFC
• Running Backs Expected to See More Targets
• Players Expected to See Fewer Carries | More Carries

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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.