Having recently published my running back negative touchdown regression candidates for 2023, I thought it would be time to focus on the wide receivers due to negatively regress in the touchdown column in 2023.
The word regression seems to have a negative connotation, but from a mathematical and practical standpoint, it simply means reverting to the mean. You will have players who overperformed with touchdowns in 2022 and those who underperformed. As a result, I have built an expected touchdowns model that factors in attempts/catches, red zone usage, and yardage modeled against a subset of players. Then, it is all about understanding why.
This exercise is both metric-based and subjective based on offensive usage. For example, wide receivers with more competition or a change of offensive coordination could be in line for negative touchdown regression.
Let’s look at the leading candidates to negatively regress to the mean in the touchdown column in 2023.
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Wide Receiver Negative Regression Touchdown Candidates (2023 Fantasy Football)
Christian Watson (GB)
Actual Touchdowns: 9
Expected Touchdowns: 3.35
Difference: +5.65 Touchdowns
Christian Watson had 41 receptions and seven carries, yet managed nine touchdowns. That touchdown rate is completely unsustainable, which is why he has such a huge difference in touchdowns expected.
The fact that Watson managed to score eight of his nine touchdowns in a four-game stretch before the bye in 2022 highlights this further. It was the ultimate example of a receiver riding a crest of a wave. In the four games after his bye week, he failed to find the endzone again.
Watson might receive more targets and have more receptions in 2023, but it is extremely unlikely he will be as potent in scoring touchdowns. Ignore Watson’s 2022 touchdown total when deciding whether to draft him or not in 2023.
Davante Adams (LVR)
Actual Touchdowns: 14
Expected Touchdowns: 9.17
Difference: +4.83 Touchdowns
Davante Adams is an elite wide receiver. He will be selected in round 2 of almost all fantasy drafts this season, but when considering whether to select Tyreek Hill or Adams, my touchdown regression model has Hill due for positive regression to the mean that is almost equal to Adams’ negative regression (4.72 touchdowns for Hill). That is a 9.55 touchdown swing or a 57 fantasy point swing.
Adams is still an elite wide receiver option. He will overproduce by a touchdown or two in most seasons due to his elite ability. However, it is unlikely, especially with a change in quarterback, that the Raiders’ lead receiver will overproduce by close to 5 touchdowns in 2023. It is also unlikely he sees much of an increase in his usage in 2023. He is still worthy of a high selection but maybe select him closer to WR5-7 than WR2-4 overall.
Jahan Dotson (WAS)
Actual Touchdowns: 7
Expected Touchdowns: 2.86
Difference: +4.14 Touchdowns
Jahan Dotson caught a touchdown pass on 20% of his receptions in 2022. That is a ridiculous touchdown rate that will not be repeated in 2023.
While it is unlikely that Dotson will be on your radars when it comes to draft targets in 2023, someone will select him based on his usage and touchdowns and think he is worth the investment. That said, there is no chance Dotson will not catch a touchdown on 20% of his receptions in a season ever again. Don’t waste the draft choice on Dotson.
A.J. Brown (PHI)
Actual Touchdowns: 11
Expected Touchdowns: 7.19
Difference: +3.81 Touchdowns
Another elite receiver who absolutely showed their talent on a new team in 2023. A.J. Brown is still going to be a top five wide receiver selection in all fantasy formats, but you should be aware that his touchdown total is likely to regress in a negative way in 2023.
Brown only had 15 redzone targets in 2022, which tied him for 15 amongst all wide receivers. He snagged four of his 11 touchdowns on those targets, yet only caught seven of them. Maybe this is where some positive regression could help, but if he manages only seven receptions in the redzone, it is highly unlikely he scores four touchdowns off them again.
And, this is fantasy owners being hopeful he retains his 146 targets in 2023. Whilst he should be close to that, that is a lot to retain. Especially given the change in offensive personnel this offseason.
Brown should still operate as a top 5/6 player at the position, but his ceiling will be capped with the negative touchdown regression.
Amari Cooper (CLE)
Actual Touchdowns: 9
Expected Touchdowns: 6.37
Difference: +2.63 Touchdowns
Amari Cooper is someone who operated under poor quarterback play in 2022, so his inclusion on this list might surprise some people. Despite the Browns struggling to move the chains at times in 2022, Cooper was highly efficient.
He was also lacking severe competition for targets, something that is not the case this year with the addition of Elijah Moore via trade. So whilst Cooper gets a huge quarterback upgrade in 2023, it is unlikely he sees many more targets than the 132 he garnered last season.
You can expect Cooper to see a drop in touchdowns in 2023, as the Browns continue to use their ground game to great effect to score in the redzone as they look to bounce back. Good news for Browns fans. Bad news for Amari Cooper fantasy owners as they will see some negative regression coming his way.
More Fantasy Football Regression Analysis
- Target Regression Candidates: RB | WR | TE
- Touchdown Regression Candidates: RB | WR | TE
- Target Share Fallers | Target Share Risers
- Target Analysis & Predictions: AFC | NFC
- Running Backs Expected to See More Targets
- Players Expected to See Fewer Carries | More Carries
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.