Touchdowns are extremely overvalued in fantasy football. There are just too many instances in which fantasy players who chase TD production from the previous year get burned. That is because touchdowns are streaky, unplanned, and impossible to replicate. Sometimes, players get on a hot streak and become more efficient at scoring touchdowns, while others do the opposite and cannot find the endzone despite having numerous opportunities. There is also extremely good defensive play (that you probably see on NFL RedZone every week) that can account for a player’s lack of TDs.
Touchdown rates vary from year to year, so it is important to focus on players that are likely to negatively regress to the mean. I have built a touchdown regression model that is reasonably successful at identifying players that are likely to either positively or negatively regress. In this article from 2022, I predicted six players who would see a reduction in touchdown totals in 2022. All six saw regression back to the mean.
In this breakdown, I’m focusing exclusively on running backs and looking at the top five negative touchdown regression candidates for 2023.
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Running Back Negative Regression Touchdown Candidates (2023 Fantasy Football)
Jamaal Williams (NO)
Actual Touchdowns: 17
Expected Touchdowns: 11.37
Difference: +5.63 Touchdowns
There are probably no surprises with this one. However, it has to be listed due to the unprecedented rate at which Williams scored touchdowns in 2022. To finish as a running back with nearly six touchdowns over the expected total is a testament to the incredible run he put together and the way he was used by the Detroit Lions in their offense.
However, the Lions decided not to pay Williams, and he moved to New Orleans in free agency. His role is going to change and he will not get the same usage in New Orleans. Williams managed 262 carries last year. He will not see anywhere near that in New Orleans with a crowded running back room. Yes, Kamara is likely to receive a ban at some point for the 2023 season. However, it is likely to be less than expected due to the felony charge going away. That means Williams, who was already overly productive in the touchdown column, is going to take a severe dive in 2023 when it comes to finding the endzone.
Expect Williams to regress even more toward the mean of nine touchdowns as his workload will decrease in 2023. In fact, it could go even lower than that.
Jerick McKinnon (KC)
Actual Touchdowns: 10
Expected Touchdowns: 4.90
Difference: +5.10 Touchdowns
McKinnon is back with Kansas City for 2023. And, whilst there is some optimism over what he can bring to the team, especially with an injury to Isiah Pacheco, there is no chance he returns to the 10 touchdowns he managed last year.
McKinnon managed those 10 touchdowns off just 128 touches (72 carries and 56 receptions). It is highly unlikely he sees a similar volume of touches in 2023, let alone see an increase in that. And it is extremely unlikely he will be scoring a touchdown in less than every 13 touches, either. He is still a value at his current ADP, but don’t fall into the trap of chasing his touchdown total from 2022.
Tony Pollard (DAL)
Actual Touchdowns: 12
Expected Touchdowns: 8.23
Difference: +3.77 Touchdowns
This is a bold prediction because there is a chance Pollard can outperform his current touchdown total of 12 in 2023 due to an increase in volume. However, I don’t expect that to be the case due to the fact that whilst I expect Pollard to see an increase in volume, he isn’t going to see a full workhorse workload. That is because this is not how Dallas operates. Expect them to be active in the Free Agency market before the season or elevate Deuce Vaughn into Tony Pollard’s role from last year as the season progresses.
Dallas will not run the wheels off Pollard during the season and run him out of juice before the playoffs. The Cowboys are expected to be in the playoffs in January and will want to have their lead back relatively fresh for that. Therefore, expect Pollard not to see the workload some analysts are expecting in 2023.
Pollard was highly efficient in an offense that was also highly efficient in 2022. There were opportunities created for Pollard to take advantage of and score at an overly efficient rate. But with the departure of Kellen Moore as Offensive Coordinator and Ezekiel Elliott, who did a lot of the heavy lifting, it is unlikely that Pollard can maintain this touchdown rate in 2023. However, the Dallas backfield still has some question marks that need to be answered before we know for sure. They are certainly a team to watch this preseason, as I don’t think the current running back room is how it will stay come Week 1.
Austin Ekeler (LAC)
Actual Touchdowns: 18
Expected Touchdowns: 14.60
Difference: +3.40 Touchdowns
Austin Ekeler propelled himself to the RB1 overall in PPR scoring due to his overly efficient touchdown rate. His 18 touchdowns were unmatched in 2022, and led the way. It is natural that he will see a negative regression in this scoring rate.
After all, he was less efficient in 2022 than he was in 2021. In 2021, he managed 20 touchdowns off just 276 touches. In 2022, he scored 18 touchdowns off 311 touches. Therefore, regardless of volume, it is likely Ekeler, who does outperform the mean regularly, is still likely to fall in the 15-16 touchdown range if he keeps his volume around 300 touches. If that volume of touches falls, so will the touchdowns.
This should not put you off selecting him in the first round of your drafts. However, be wary that based on his current usage, negative regression is coming his way. All that being said, Ekeler will likely still be a touchdown leader in the position in 2023.
Ezekiel Elliott (FA)
Actual Touchdowns: 12
Expected Touchdowns: 8.54
Difference: +3.46 Touchdowns
Again, it might seem an obvious one because it is starting to become realistic that Elliott could start the season without a team. And, even if he finds a team, it is extremely unlikely he is going to match the 248 touches he had in 2022.
It seems impossible that Zeke will end up anywhere near 12 touchdowns, regardless of which team he lands on. However, even if he landed on a team, and with injury help, managed to end up as the lead back, he still is unlikely to match his highly productive rate in 2022. Dallas massively overperformed in rushing touchdowns as a team in 2022 (hence why Pollard is also on this list). Whatever team he lands on will not be as efficient as the 2022 Dallas Cowboys.
Zeke should be a fade regardless of his incoming negative touchdown regression. However, even if you are considering him as a late flyer in drafts, take note that this negative regression will be coming at him hard in 2023.
More Regression Analysis
- Target Regression Candidates: RB | WR | TE
- Touchdown Regression Candidates: RB | WR | TE
- Target Share Fallers | Target Share Risers
- Target Analysis & Predictions: AFC | NFC
- Running Backs Expected to See More Targets
- Players Expected to See Fewer Carries | More Carries
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.