Touchdowns are volatile. They are hard to account for and predict, as I have mentioned before, and whilst some players massive overperform in the touchdown column, there are some that just get frightfully unlucky.
I recently published my running back negative regression touchdown candidates article. However, in this breakdown, I’m focusing exclusively on the top five positive regression touchdown candidates for the position.
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Running Back Positive Regression Touchdown Candidates (2023 Fantasy Football)
Saquon Barkley (NYG)
Actual Touchdowns: 10
Expected Touchdowns: 19.78
Difference: -9.78 Touchdowns
If Saquon Barkley had scored his expected touchdowns in 2022, he would have been the RB in standard scoring, the RB2 in half-point PPR scoring, and the RB3 in PPR scoring. It does show you the impact of not getting the touchdowns that are expected on the workload. These touchdowns not scored probably cost some players a championship or two.
However, looking at the bigger picture, Barkley becomes an instant value in drafts this season as a result. Now his contract situation has been resolved for 2023, it is easy to select him as a first-round running back in drafts, given this positive touchdown regression coming his way. He is not going to have any competition for carries since the Giants did not spend any significant draft or trade capital to bring in competition. He also will get significant targets in this offense as well, as he is the Giants’ best offensive weapon.
If Barkley remains healthy, you can bank on him getting another 350+ touches in 2023. If that happens, expect his touchdowns to be closer to 16-18, as opposed to the 10 he booked last year. It is not a new offensive team anymore, and we expect a second-year leap for this offense, which made massive strides in 2022 under Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka.
Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)
Actual Touchdowns: 3
Expected Touchdowns: 7.31
Difference: -4.31 Touchdowns
Brian Robinson Jr. might be a surprise on this list, not so much for positive regression, but that he only managed to find the endzone just three times in 2022. In a season that was disrupted by being shot twice in the offseason, Robinson returned quickly to take over the carries in Washington. As a result, he amassed 214 touches in just 12 games. Over 17 games, that puts him on pace for 303 touches, which puts him firmly in the workhorse category.
Therefore there are two paths to positive regression for Robinson Jr. The first is that he was unlucky not to have four more touchdowns in 2022 based on his existing workload. He had 24 carries inside the redzone, but nine of those were inside the five. That number, on a per-game basis, would move him to 13 carries inside the five, which would have put him tied for seventh amongst all running backs in 2022. However, he only scored twice off those nine carries. I would expect this to improve by two in 2023 with the same opportunity.
Then there is the volume increase Robinson Jr. will have if he stays fit. 303 touches with 13 carries inside the five will see a significant touchdown increase, even if his touchdown rate remains below the mean.
Robinson Jr. is a screaming value at current ADP in drafts and you should look to exploit it based on the positive regression coming his way.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
Actual Touchdowns: 6
Expected Touchdowns: 10.13
Difference: -4.13 Touchdowns
Rhamondre Stevenson arguably is one of those running backs who gained the most this offseason. As of the beginning of preseason, Stevenson has yet to see the Patriots spend any significant draft, trade or free agency capital on competition for him. Also, he managed to say goodbye to defensive-minded Matt Patricia as an Offensive Coordinator, as the Patriots hired former Houston Texans Head Coach Bill O’Brien as their new Offensive Coordinator.
We expect Stevenson to have an expanded role, as it currently stands. He had 279 touches in 2022. That is expected to top 300+ and maybe even closer to 350 in 2023. Add to that the touchdown regression coming his way and Stevenson could be challenging for top five running back honors in all formats in 2023.
Another area of positive regression for Stevenson is his 12 carries inside the five-yard line only yielded two touchdowns. Don’t expect that ratio to continue in 2023. Whilst Stevenson has a reasonably high ADP right now, the positive regression coming his way should give you the confidence to draft him there in 2023.
Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)
Actual Touchdowns: 5
Expected Touchdowns: 8.97
Difference: -3.97 Touchdowns
The Jacksonville Jaguars took a massive step forward in 2022. And a lot of that had to do with Travis Etienne Jr. bringing a much-needed potency to the ground game. But, whilst he was exceptional, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, he failed to get into the endzone as often as he should.
He ranked seventh amongst running backs with carries inside the five-yard line, with 13. That being said, he only converted three of those into scores, and these equaled 60% of his total touchdowns on the season. I would expect Doug Pederson will come up with other scoring plays for Etienne Jr. this season. Also, expect some positive regression on inside the five-yard line efficiency as well.
The final question mark around Etienne Jr. is if he can improve on his 255 touches in 2022. Because, if he can do that, he will absolutely smash his ADP in 2023 and become a potential league winner.
Dameon Pierce (HOU)
Actual Touchdowns: 5
Expected Touchdowns: 8.75
Difference: -3.75 Touchdowns
Dameon Pierce was an off-season darling in 2022 that paid off for a lot of fantasy players. However, whilst he represented amazing value in fantasy drafts, Pierce missed out on being a bone-fide RB2 in fantasy football in all formats due to his touchdown inefficiency.
Pierce scored four of his touchdowns inside the five-yard line (three rushing and one receiving touchdown), and he did that off of 10 touches inside the five, which is efficient enough. However, where he struggled was scoring one touchdown off of his remaining 240 touches not inside the five-yard line. Part of that was down to the putrid Texans offense, but another part of that was down to pure bad luck. It is rare a player will have 240 touches outside the five-yard line and fail to score more than once.
With a new set of coaches in Houston, a new rookie quarterback, and some new weapons, expect the efficiency and potency of the Texans’ offense to be better in 2023. And with that, more positive touchdown regression for Pierce.
More Fantasy Football Regression Coverage
- Target Regression Candidates: RB | WR | TE
- Target Share Fallers | Target Share Risers
- Target Analysis & Predictions: AFC | NFC
- Running Backs Expected to See More Targets
- Players Expected to See Fewer Carries | More Carries
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.
