5 Overvalued Players to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)

Some fantasy football cliches really can make your eye twitch. “You can’t win your league in the first round, but you sure can lose it!” That’s my least favorite. You can win or lose your entire league in the first round and definitely in the first three rounds. Regardless of when this draft occurs, everyone in the league can access the same information. The information we can’t possibly know throws a monkey wrench into a lot of good fantasy rosters, so we make do and beg to a higher power for mercy.

Another cliche, one I really like, is “Don’t hate the player; hate the average draft position (ADP).” Every analyst has their own process, with a different set of outcomes from the experiment. I have my favorites organized in positional tiers and a target range in which to select them in a fantasy draft.

On the flip side of that coin are the players I deem overvalued at their current ADP. This does not mean I will scoff in my refusal to take that player, but I will instead likely miss out on that player and let another manager “reach” for him. ADP is an accrued data set meant only for identifying generalized windows of availability. Draft according to it, and you’d better hope your league doesn’t have a toilet bowl punishment. The ‘A’ stands for average, after all. Average is the best-case scenario for a team based around it.

AFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
NFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

The Worst Team You Could Draft at ADP

This is part of the story where you can all get apoplectic about your favorite guy appearing on “the worst” fantasy team. Good. That’s to be expected and energizes some really healthy dialogue among peers. I’m actually a big fan of a few of these players, but not where they’re currently being scooped up. Feel free to put me on blast on the socials for this. It fuels my desire to improve. The team is assuming a 12-team PPR redraft with QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/FLEX/FLEX.

The double-digit rounds are, by definition, value rounds. Meaning you can’t mess it up at that point. The team below is based on the first 10 rounds. Also, please do not draft a kicker or defense this early. There are dozens of value-adding skill players still available.

Round 1: Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)

I can already hear the crackling of the torches and the rattling timbre of swords coming unsheathed over this. Our 2022 RB1 and fantasy-to-real football crossover hero is due for a regression out of his control. Ekeler has never once rushed for 1,000 yards in a season. He hasn’t needed to until now. Incoming offensive coordinator Kellen Moore refuses to incorporate RBs into the route tree as a priority target.

Former Memphis receiver and current Cowboys star RB Tony Pollard set a new career high in targets last season…with 55. Ekeler hasn’t had fewer than 55 targets since 2018, when he only played in 14 games. Joe Lombardi is to Kellen Moore as oil is to water when it comes to RBs catching passes. Ekeler might have to score more than 20 touchdowns this season to make up for a cataclysmic decline in receiving opportunities.

Round 2: Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)

Is Patrick Mahomes the best QB in the league and of his era? Yes. Is he worth a second-round pick in 1QB leagues this year? Absolutely not. Even though Mahomes logged his first QB1 overall season since 2018 last year, he was still not worth the third-round ADP he sported before Week 1. QBs simply do not have any replacement value, especially since players in the same scoring tier can be acquired multiple rounds later. The second round is also fully stocked with stud RBs and WRs this season. I know it’s tempting to boast that you have the best QB on your fantasy team. It’s more important to have a better roster that can stand up to the ebbs and flows of the season.

Round 3: Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

It pains me to write this name down, but the pride of NorCal is being drafted at his sagging ceiling in 2023. Najee is a great all-around football player, but his receiving role endeared us to his production as a rookie in 2021. That role has been slashed on two ends. On one side, Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement took away the copious check-downs that were a cheat code in PPR. On the other, Jaylen Warren was a dynamic producer in the passing game last season and boasted much better per-touch numbers. Harris’ receiving volume is half of what it was in 2021, and his ADP of RB10 is too much to stomach.

Round 4: Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

Deebo is a breathtaking playmaker and one heck of a football player. He has still only produced one season that would warrant a fourth-round pick. I get the narrative that “he’s in the best shape of his life” and whatnot, but the fact of the matter is Brandon Aiyuk is the WR1 in San Francisco. I would much rather reach on the route-running prowess and technical savvy of Aiyuk than the off-chance that Deebo runs amok again like his outlier 2021 season.

Round 5: Christian Watson (WR – GB)

Did you hear about the new Costco warehouse they’re building in Wisconsin? They laid the foundation between Christian Watson’s hands at the catch point. Despite his freakish attributes and a legendary four-game stretch as a rookie last season, Watson is still a very limited player. He will certainly have some big games, even with Jordan Love at QB. I worry about the 10 to 12 games where he is a complete non-factor because a defense takes him away as a first read. His route-running and hands are not yet at the level where he will rise to the occasion and dominate. Don’t let a good best ball pick burn you in a managed redraft league.