Let’s dive into fantasy football sleepers! I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Be prepared to find hidden talents across all teams, including those in unexpected situations like the Arizona Cardinals. My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform).
Get ready to make strategic moves and uncover the next breakout stars! Here are my top fantasy football sleepers for all NFL teams. Below we’ll offer a free look at a few of these names.
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
The former Giants’ slot WR was thrown back into the starting role in Week 12 after rookie Wan’Dale Robinson went down with a torn ACL. From Weeks 12-17, James led New York with a 22.4% target share averaging 11.3 fantasy points, 5.6 receptions and 55 receiving yards per game (WR16 overall). James tied a bow on the year with the league’s highest catch rate (82.9%). Coming off a career year, James was a sneaky addition to the Chiefs as they try to improve their passing game over the middle of the field.
TCU’s Derius Davis earned second-team, All-Big 12 honors as a return specialist in 2021. He followed up his impressive 2021 campaign by winning the 2022 Jet Award, an award given to the best return specialist of the college football season. Simply put, this man can flat-out fly and somebody has to catch the ball deep from Justin Herbert‘s cannon arm.
Puka Nacua has been a fun toy for Sean McVay during OTAs, with reports of the team moving him all around the formation. Makes sense, considering FantasyPros’ own Thor Nystrom coined Nacua as “Discount Deebo” in his final draft player comps. I also liked Nacua’s profile coming out of college and felt like his 5th-round draft capital did not match his production. The 6-foot-2 and 201-pound wideout ended the 2021 season as a junior sixth in yards per route run behind future NFL WRs like Treylon Burks, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Drake London. And like London, Nacua operated primarily on the outside with a 78 percent perimeter alignment. Nacua finished his BYU tenure strong as PFF’s second-highest-graded WR in the nation (90.1) due to his impressive efficiency on per route run basis. He was targeted on 38 percent of his routes in 2022 and posted the second-highest targets above expectation in his class per Sports Info Solutions. On a depth chart with zero certified studs after Cooper Kupp — Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson — nobody would be shocked to see Nacua sneak into starting 3 WRs sets, especially with his versatility.
My primary wide receiver takeaway from “How to value rookie in fantasy football” is to go aggressively after wide receivers with Round 1 or 2 draft capital but be extremely wary of those that go Round 3 or later. Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s blazing 2021 season is not the norm; fantasy managers should not chase the possibility because it will not be easily replicated. It’s easy to tell yourself a story that guys like Derius Davis, Tyler Scott or Puka Nacua can have a stretch of fantasy production. But realistically, you are just praying for a spike week. I wouldn’t touch any of these guys outside the 18th round of a best-ball format. And in the case of Davis/Scott, it would only happen if I rostered Justin Herbert or Justin Fields as my quarterback. My one sole exception for drafting Day 3 WRs would be the new Patriots and former LSU wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. Despite being drafted in the sixth round, Boutte has shown tremendous potential during his time at LSU. As a freshman, he led the team in targets with 76, converting his volume into an impressive 22% dominator rating at just 18 years old. He followed that up in 2021 with another 22% dominator rating in just six games played, cementing his status as the team’s alpha WR1 after Terrace Marshall Jr. left for the NFL. Although he struggled with injuries in 2022 and failed to show the same elite playmaking ability as his first two seasons, Boutte ended his college career strong with a season-high 11 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown against Georgia. If Boutte is back to 100% health as an NFL rookie, he has the potential to be a steal in fantasy rookie drafts. Despite his fall to the sixth round of the draft, he has shown the ability to produce at a high level against tough competition. His youth is also a major plus, as he just turned 21 on May 7th. However, there are concerns about his work habits and attitude, as well as his poor testing numbers at the NFL Combine. He finished last in the vertical jump and second to last in the broad jump, which raises concerns about his explosiveness and ability to separate at the next level. Nevertheless, if he can overcome these concerns and return to the form he showed earlier in his career, Boutte could be a great late-round option in fantasy rookie drafts. And most importantly, he won’t clog your dynasty roster with middling production. He’s either going to hit or flame out entirely. There is no in-between. This is the way.
Despite every salary cap “expert” saying otherwise, Corey Davis looks like he is going to be a New York Jet in 2023. And that means he is going to play full array of snaps, which is not being priced at all into his free ADP. He’s been entirely written off in favor of newcomers such as Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman, but Davis profiles as a traditional perimeter WR that should be on the field in both 3 and 2 WR sets. Before getting hurt in Week 7, Davis was the WR32 in half-point scoring while leading the Jets in receiving yards. Do I expect Davis to be a league winner? No. But he’s a sure-fire lock to beat his ECR ranking of WR89 after he finished as a fantasy WR2 in 33% of his games in 2022. Especially in the best ball format, where you are just hoping to find guys with steady jobs at the WR position.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
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