One of the toughest parts of putting a piece like this together is identifying who qualifies for the topic at hand. When has a player truly broken out?
For example, I thought about leading off with Brandon Aiyuk. Even players like Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson will frequently be featured in articles like this. But, each of them cleared 1,000 yards last season and have already broken out to some extent. There may be another level to unlock, but we can go deeper than that.
The guys below have flashed, but nobody will argue that they’ve already broken out. We’ll start with some more obvious breakout candidates and dig deeper as we go down the list.
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
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- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
2023 Breakout Players
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Trade rumors surrounded the Broncos receivers all offseason long, and Sean Payton put his stamp on the room by advocating for a trade up into the second round of the NFL Draft to select Marvin Mims. The good news for Jeudy is that the team was practically begging somebody to trade for Courtland Sutton, but only dangled Jeudy with rumors of a high asking price. That alone tells you how Payton feels about Jeudy compared to Sutton.
Tim Patrick, who many thought would be a big part of the offense will miss his second straight season with a torn ACL, and KJ Hamler has been waived with an NFI designation after he was diagnosed with pericarditis. Long story short, Jeudy is standing atop a rapidly thinning depth chart.
Jeudy finished last season as the WR21 in points per game but played three games with significant injuries. If we remove those three outings, he climbs up to WR12 in PPG. That doesn’t even account for the added optimism that Payton can turn things around in Denver.
In New Orleans, Payton produced eight WR1 seasons out of his 15, and his top WR finished in the top-20 in 11 of 15 seasons. With a solid floor as the Broncos top option, Jeudy has an untapped ceiling he can reach if Payton fixes Russ.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
Remember the Urban Meyer Jaguars? It’s difficult to think about, but it’s important to remember in the context of Lawrence’s NFL journey. He made the most of a terrible situation, and thankfully, Meyer didn’t do enough damage to ruin the young quarterback altogether.
After an up-and-down rookie season, Lawrence went on to finish as fantasy’s QB8 in his sophomore campaign. Just 11.3 fantasy points separated him and Geno Smith, the QB5 on the year. Outside of three dismal weeks when Lawrence posted fantasy scores of 5.66, 6.82, and 4.48, he was quite good. He averaged 17.9 points per game across 17 outings, but if we remove those three contests, his average jumps to 20.48 PPG.
Obviously, they all count, but Lawrence now gets to experience his first normal offseason, entering his second year in this system. Not only that, but he will also enjoy the presence of Calvin Ridley. Lawrence’s numbers from last year are even more impressive when you consider he did it without a traditional number one receiver.
Christian Kirk is a tremendous second option, and the team boasts depth at the position along with a quality target at tight end in Evan Engram. The running game should be strong with Travis Etienne and rookie Tank Bigsby in the fold. Plus, Lawrence himself is capable of hoofing it for some yardage on the ground, but he can improve upon his 291 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns from a year ago. I’m all in on the Jaguars’ offense this season, and Lawrence is my captain now.
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
The Commanders turned some heads when they selected Dotson 16th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. In retrospect, many analysts likely should have revisited their pre-draft evaluation of Dotson after his draft investment. If that wasn’t enough convincing, Dotson played like a man possessed in the first four weeks before suffering a hamstring strain, tallying four touchdowns in as many games.
Although he only managed three fantasy points in week three, Dotson posted totals of 18, 17.9, and 13.3 points in the other three weeks. He would go on to miss five games and would remain quiet for a few weeks after his return before a strong finish to the season.
Through his last five games, Dotson scored double-digit fantasy points four times, clearing 16 points in three of them. In just 12 games, Dotson finished as a top-25 wide receiver six times and outscored his teammate Terry McLaurin six of the 12 times they shared the field.
I’m a McLaurin guy, so I’m not knocking him, but this is closer to a 1A/1B situation than many realize. I’m also optimistic on Sam Howell, who has generated positive reviews out of camp and could very well be the best quarterback Washington has seen in some time. No matter how you feel about Howell, the passing attack will be highly concentrated with passes funneled to McLaurin and Dotson.
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
As the dust settled on the free-agent running back market, I expected more hype surrounding back Pierce. After rushing for 939 yards and four touchdowns in 13 games last year, he finished as the RB27 overall, and the RB20 in points per game. Admittedly, there are valid question marks leading some to avoid the second-year running back.
Houston inked Devin Singletary to a one-year deal, they will likely be led by a rookie signal caller, and the offensive line was one of the worst units in football last year. These points are all valid but also overlook other factors working in Pierce’s favor.
Yes, they signed a veteran running back, but with many big names on the market, the Texans settled on Singletary for just $2.5 million guaranteed and only gave him one year. A rookie quarterback lends itself to a run-heavy approach, particularly when factoring in the hiring of DeMeco Ryans who will want to run the football. Additionally, the offensive line provided a league worst .8 rush yards before contact last season.
The team traded for Shaq Mason and drafted Juice Scruggs this offseason, and, while they’re unlikely to turn this unit into a dominant force, it’s hard to see them being any worse. Even with the putrid marks from the offensive line, Pierce averaged 3.28 yards after contact per attempt, the eight best mark in the league.
It’s one thing to pick up yardage after contact downfield, but it’s another to do it at the line of scrimmage. Overall, 722 of his 939 rushing yards came after contact last season. Looking ahead, the Texans brought over Bobby Slowik to coordinate the offense after Slowik helped facilitate the dominant running game in San Francisco. For his part, Pierce has been studying Christian McCaffrey in preparation for more work in the passing game.
Sure, Pierce had minimal competition for touches last season, but he was pacing towards 1,200+ yards rushing before a high ankle sprain in week 14. Even if Singletary takes some touches away, it will allow Pierce to remain fresh. More importantly, if Pierce can improve on his 30 receptions for 165 yards in an improved offense, he has RB1 upside.
George Pickens (WR – PIT)
Nobody questions the talent of Pickens. Character concerns coupled with a torn ACL in college led him to sliding all the way down to pick number 52 in the draft. Another year removed from his ACL injury, the concerns surrounding Pickens’ character have gone quiet.
Pickens will look to build on a rookie season in which he tallied 801 yards and four touchdowns. He was used primarily as a deep threat, finishing the season with the third highest average depth of target among all receivers at 15.6. His 28 deep targets were seventh most and his 15.4 yards per reception were 12th most.
Although his ability to win deep is certainly a plus, Pickens was unable to put a full route tree on film. Is this a product of his limitations, or a product of offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s limitations? Time will tell, but training camp is off to a good start for coach and receiver.
According to Mark Kaboly of The Athletic, Canada has been using Pickens “as more than a deep target.” In addition, Kaboly states that “with so much already expected out of Pickens, it’s tough to top that. He just might have done that over three weeks. He’s no longer just a deep-ball or highlight-catch guy.”
This comes in conjunction with high praise for second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett. If Pickett takes a step forward and Canada unleashes a full route tree from Pickens, we’re going to see tons of crooked numbers in the box score from this duo.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Hoppen’s Final Round Draft Dart Throws
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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