Earlier this week, we looked at four receivers who were overvalued at their ADP. Today we are going to look at the inverse of that: Receivers you should be targeting at their ADP. Like anything, some of these players come with risks, but I would much prefer to invest in them at their raw cost as opposed to others in the same range.
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Undervalued Wide Receivers Based on ADP
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL) – ADP: 13th/WR7
Lamb has slipped a bit in the last week as he is now going at the 1st Round turn in PPR drafts. Lamb is coming off a monster season where he had 107 receptions on 156 targets, ranking fourth among receivers in both metrics as he finally ascended into the elite tier of receivers. There could be more opportunities for Lamb this season, however, as Dallas has the look of an offense set up to throw the ball often. Even with the departure of Kellen Moore and Mike McCarthy’s insistence on more ball control offensively, Lamb could be set up to see 180 targets this year. Dallas will look to get him the ball more in space, which should allow him to use his ability after the catch. Lamb should be going in the middle of the 1st Round in drafts closer to where Cooper Kupp is being picked. Buy the dip.
Calvin Ridley (WR – JAC) – ADP: 40th/WR17
The last time we saw Calvin Ridley, he was on pace for 100 receptions and 150 targets in Atlanta. Of course, that was almost two years ago, so there is rust to knock off, but so far, Ridley has looked tremendous in camp and is already looking like Trevor Lawrence‘s top target. Working in an offense with Lawrence and head coach Doug Pederson will put Ridley in the best offensive environment of his career. He inherits Zay Jones‘ spot as the X Receiver for the Jaguars, a role that helped Jones to a WR25 finish in 2022. If Ridley can pick up where he left off in 2021, he could very well finish as a WR1 making his WR17 ADP one of the best price tags this season.
Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA) – ADP: 73rd/WR29
The Tyler Lockett disrespect has gone too far, so hopefully, this can serve as a reminder that Lockett hasn’t finished worse than the WR23 in a season since 2017. While I understand the concerns (Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s arrival, Seattle being a run-oriented offense), Lockett only had a 79% snap share (35th) and a 22.8% target share (26th) in 2023 but ended as the WR23. He is supremely underrated in how efficient he is as a receiver, meaning that even if his target share takes a slight dip, he should still return value as the current WR29 off the board. I am more than happy to let the perception of Lockett knock him down a round further than where he should be and snap him up.
Marquise Brown (WR – ARI) – ADP: 77th/WR35
Brown is being pushed down draft boards, and like Tyler Lockett, there are valid concerns. Kyler Murray is looking likely to miss the first six weeks of the season, and the Cardinals have a legitimate shot at being the worst team in football. That still doesn’t mean Brown should be treated as a low-end WR3. Brown will be the undisputed top-receiving option for Arizona and should have a floor of eight targets per game with the potential for much more.
Last year when Brown was in a similar spot without DeAndre Hopkins, he racked up 75 targets in his first six games. No matter how you slice that, if he is getting that kind of target share, he should be no worse than a WR2. If Murray comes back strong, Brown will end up being one of the best bargains at the position.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky