The plethora of readily available fantasy football advice is a good thing. Most of the articles, threads and videos you can consume will have a call to action on players who will “break out” or “smash ADP” this season. The inherent toxicity and negativity that stems from social media has not yet leeched into content. Most would prefer it stay that way, but this dark corner of my heart wants a smidge of nefarious writing and banter that identifies fantasy players who will not get better this season.
Pitfalls in performance are just as devastating to a fantasy roster as injuries. In some ways, underperformance and negative regression are worse because you’re still plugging the player into the lineup to chase last year’s euphoric rush. If the player was injured, your starting spot is spared. We have no way to predict who will get hurt and how many games they will miss, but we can take a much more accurate stab at who will faceplant well short of expectations.
For wide receivers, targets are earned. Through athleticism and technical skill, along with savvy and toughness, the best WRs get the most looks because they get open. Across the myriad archetypes at the position, WRs are also largely at the mercy of quarterback aptitude and competing for targets within his own offense. Here are four WRs who I will be fading at current ADP because of a looming regression in their target share and quality of targets
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Negative Target Regressions Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)
The gargantuan freak that is DK Metcalf can certainly still pay off despite earning fewer targets than in previous seasons. In fact, Metcalf’s route-running versatility has improved by leaps and bounds since his rookie season. He is currently going as WR15 in drafts, well ahead of his longtime teammate (and Seattle’s WR1 last year) Tyler Lockett and incoming superstar rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Lockett and JSN are massive values at their current ADP, whereas Metcalf is trending to be a high-upside overpay. Lockett is one of the most under-appreciated route runners in the NFL and always pays off at cost, while JSN is a souped-up version of Amon-Ra St. Brown and will have a gravitational effect on targets.
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
Proponents of Green Bay’s second-year WR Christian Watson point to his torrid four-game stretch last season when he scored seven touchdowns when indicating their projections for him in 2023. He averaged nearly seven targets in those games. Those were the only four games in 2022 where he reached WR1 status and he only earned more than seven targets in one other game. Romeo Doubs‘ presence on the field with Watson was a huge deterrent for Aaron Rodgers to look to his athletically-gifted big play threat. Rodgers is gone and the descent into the Jordan Love era is a precipitous one. The team also added two strong receiving TEs and Jayden Reed from Michigan State through the draft. Save for a few random spike weeks, I cannot trust Watson to earn targets that would stand up to his hyper-inflated ADP at WR20.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
Football historians and purists cling to big vertically driven X-receivers like a string of pearls. In today’s game, rife with Cover-3 and correlating personnel that prefers rangy corners who can bang, that archetype is going the way of print publication. There are a select few from this archetype who come to mind and have stood up to the everchanging game, but Courtland Sutton is not one of them. Even in good health, Sutton has long struggled to win versus zone, man, and press coverages (Reception Perception). As a downfield threat, Sutton is still every bit as good at pulling in contested passes. He also does well on certain in-breaking routes where he can use his size to shield coverage from the catch point. I still foresee a decline in target volume from his 7.3 per-game average in 2022. Marvin Mims‘ arrival, along with Tim Patrick‘s healthy return and Jerry Jeudy‘s growth, make for a very tough environment in which to grow.
Christian Kirk (WR – JAX)
I really like Christian Kirk. Doug Pederson was keen on continuing to deploy Kirk as Jacksonville’s primary slot receiver like Kliff Kingsbury finally did for the Cardinals in 2021. Kirk is perfect there, especially when Trevor Lawrence is the QB. Unfortunately for the former Texas A&M Aggie, the Jags have continued to surround their franchise QB with more weaponry. Calvin Ridley was on the suspended list when he was dealt from Atlanta and now figures to be an extremely valuable flanker. Evan Engram was the alpha receiver at times for the Jags too and recently signed a contract extension with the team. Pederson would do well to continue developing Travis Etienne‘s passing game role, while also nurturing Tank Bigsby‘s growth. While Kirk is still undervalued in some formats, there is a growing concern about whether he can duplicate his 2022 pace of 7.8 targets per game. There are a lot of very hungry mouths to feed on this ascending team.
More Fantasy Football Regression Analysis
- Target Regression Candidates: TE
- Target Share Fallers | Target Share Risers
- Target Analysis & Predictions: AFC | NFC
- Running Backs Expected to See More Targets
- Players Expected to See Fewer Carries | More Carries
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