Analyzing the fantasy tight-end landscape is as fun as a casual day at the DMV. Every year we get out hopes up about some players that could make a mark, but, most of the time, we end up disappointed.
You might not want to spend the draft capital on a premiere tight end, so you’ll try to find a sleeper in the later rounds. Below are four you should stay away from in your draft.
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2023 Tight Ends To Avoid
Cole Kmet (CHI): ADP 144, TE 12
Kmet has been one of the more frustrating tight ends to figure out in recent memory. On a positive note, he found the end zone several times last season after blanking on paydirt in 2021.
He did have an incredible two-week stretch where he finished as the TE1 both times, but it was against Miami, who was 29th in points allowed to tight ends, and the Lions, who were 27th. His other best finish was third against the Vikings, who allowed the ninth-most points to the position.
Many expect Justin Fields to be better at passing, but DJ Moore should get a large percentage of the snap share.
Dawson Knox (BUF): ADP 188, TE 20
Knox was an exciting fantasy pick last year after he finished as a career-best TE11 in 2021, but he regressed, coming in at TE14 this past season. Even that finish was thanks to a nice run at the end of the season, in which he turned in four straight games finishing in the top ten. From Weeks 1-13, he was the TE20.
Those last games were also against some favorable matchups, including the previously mentioned Dolphins, the Jets, and the Patriots. The Bills made a splash by drafting Dalton Kincaid in the first round, who had a 70/890/8 statline last season at Utah. This is a clear sign that Knox will be fading in this offense.
Zach Ertz (ARI): ADP 203, TE 22
Ertz was one of the premiere tight ends in the league, but it looks like he’s on the downtrend. He’s missed time with injuries in two of his last three seasons, but his stats have been regressing too.
As Ertz recovers from a torn MCL and ACL, the Cardinals’ 2022 second-round pick Trey McBride looks to set himself up as next in line to be the lead tight end in Arizona. This is also a Cardinals team transitioning with a new coaching staff as well as possibly being without Kyler Murray for the entire season.
Trusting any offensive player on a team that could finish with the worse record is hard.
Darnell Washington (PIT): ADP 268, TE 33
Washington is a specimen at 6-7, 264 pounds. He’s not someone opposing defenses want to see in the open field. The question is: how involved will he be in the passing game?
Washington was not known as a pass catcher at Georgia. After accumulating 17 catches in his first two seasons, he had career highs with 28 catches for 454 yards last year. However, when you compare it to his fellow UGA TE Brock Bowers, who had 63 catches for 942 yards, Washington was not that much of a factor.
The Steelers still have Pat Friermuth, who was fourth amongst tight ends in air yards, seventh in yards per route run, tenth in courses ran, and finished as TE7 last year. While we could see Washington get opportunities, it won’t be enough to warrant a roster spot.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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