If you love unnerving inconsistency and exasperated hand-flailing every autumn Sunday, ask your doctor if fantasy football is right for you. Specifically, ask him or her which tight end to draft. Seriously. Pen to paper, prescribed, use as directed. We both know by Week 3, you’ll be getting fitted for a straightjacket anyway. Regression is a return to homeostasis. The prior result was an outlier, and the subject (an NFL TE, in this case) regresses back to their average expected value.
For the skill players in PPR leagues, target volume is a heavily scrutinized metric. TEs are as volatile as decaying uranium in fantasy football. Unless we’re talking about Travis Kelce, to predict week-to-week target volume is a fool’s errand. We still try. Stats and alignment data from previous seasons can shed light on future use. Changes at offensive play-caller or QB wipe away the sand like a mandala. The team might also have added more target competition in the offseason.
Here are four TEs who will see their target volume from last season dwindle, negatively affecting their fantasy viability.
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4 Negative Target Regression Tight Ends (2023 Fantasy Football)
Dalton Schultz (HOU)
It may come as a surprise, but Dak Prescott‘s love for Dalton Schultz was a huge reason why the mundane TE saw 89 targets for the Cowboys in 2022. Neither a stellar blocker nor route runner, Schultz was also anemic when it came to gaining extra yards after the catch. It was also very puzzling to see dynamic playmaking RB Tony Pollard only see 55 targets in the same offense. Schultz is now a member of the Houston Texans and figures to slot right in as the starter. Former 49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik is staying with new head coach Demeco Ryans as the team’s offensive coordinator.
Remember how maddening it was to see George Kittle stay in and block instead of running routes? Schultz is like ordering Kittle off Wish.com and offers no reason to be optimistic about his stat line in 2022. Expect a very straightforward, one-read setup for CJ Stroud in his rookie season. Schultz was often just a check-down in Dallas, while Houston has a lot of young talent at WR that the Cowboys did not have last season. Schultz is not draft-worthy in fantasy in 2023.
Tyler Higbee (LAR)
In the very same mold as Schultz, there is really nothing special about Tyler Higbee that beckons QBs to continue targeting him like last season. Higbee benefitted greatly from everyone else on the Rams’ offense falling to injuries last season. He garnered 108 targets, good for fourth-most among TEs in 2022. Higbee parlayed all of that volume into a sickeningly low 8.6 yards per reception and a paltry 8.9 fantasy points per game (15th among TEs).
Higbee is merely a doomsday option in the Rams’ offense. He thrives as the hot read when Matthew Stafford identifies the defense is bringing pressure but offers none of the YAC ability you’d hope from a receiver with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 3.3 yards (37th among TEs; PlayerProfiler). The Rams will hope to have Cooper Kupp ready for the 2023 season and added Puka Nacua from BYU to act as their next Robert Woods prototype. Higbee’s career-high in targets was a massive outlier, with little to no chance it repeats.
David Njoku (CLE)
The Browns really like David Njoku. He is a very good football player and possesses outstanding athletic traits. Unfortunately, his receiving stats are not expected to progress in 2023. In a snapshot, Njoku’s 80 targets in 2022 seem a reasonable feat to repeat. It’s the Kevin Stefansky system that does not put TE on a high enough pedestal in the passing game. Njoku was 13th among TEs in routes run and 20th in slot percentage (PP). This means that he lined up in-line more often than is conducive to the receiving hierarchy desired. Similar to George Kittle, Njoku is valued as a blocker and that hurts his fantasy value.
I don’t foresee a large target regression from Njoku, but the arrival of Elijah Moore figures to put the kibosh on more slot opportunities for the 27-year-old from Miami. We will have to be satisfied with the flashes of brilliant athleticism after the catch and in the red zone that Njoku occasionally thrills us with. Sadly, highlight reel plays don’t count for extra points.
Evan Engram (JAC)
Ever the controversial fantasy TE, Evan Engram enjoyed a stellar first season as a Jacksonville Jaguar. He was amazing as a rookie for the New York Giants, helping me to a few fantasy championships that season. Through nagging injuries and inconsistent performance, Engram’s luster wore off. Many rightly looked at the Gettleman era of Giants football to blame for Engram’s floundering development, especially after he crushed it behind Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence and won a playoff game. There is still a nagging worry that it was just another outlier season and Engram will regress into a solid-but-disappointing fantasy TE.
Engram earned 98 targets in 2022, good for 5.8 per game. He only cracked double-digit targets three times on the season, lending to the idea that the Jags were more keen on spreading it around instead of exploiting Engram’s knack for being a matchup nightmare. The team traded for Calvin Ridley, a formidable threat at flanker. Zay Jones is still here, while Christian Kirk figures to continue his exploits from the slot. Engram’s 300 slot snaps led all TEs last season. That is not going to happen this year. He can still maintain his status as a top-10 fantasy TE through his YAC ability and red zone prowess, but don’t be shocked to see his share of the offense diminish somewhat.
More Regression Candidates
- Target Regression Candidates: RB | WR | TE
- Target Share Fallers | Target Share Risers
- Target Analysis & Predictions: AFC | NFC
- Running Backs Expected to See More Targets
- Players Expected to See Fewer Carries | More Carries
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