Points per reception (PPR) leagues are the standard for fantasy football scoring. No position has changed more in value from non-PPR to PPR than running backs. A 12-yard jaunt into the second level of the defense is indeed equivalent to a screen where the RB falls after only two yards. RB targets are extremely valuable since their conversion rate is often extremely high, and they have a chance to make plays in space after the catch.
Not all RB targets are equal, however. Some backs rely on simple check-downs in the flat, where the defense is giving a lot of cushion to protect deeper down the field. Others are given a more versatile route tree and aren’t asked to stay in on pass protection in lieu of getting open in the pattern.
The latter RB has staying power in fantasy football. Only the most polished receivers at the RB position are entrusted with that role in the first place and are unlikely to relinquish it. The RB in the first bucket is always in danger of negative target regression. His team might add a better option for passing downs and during two-minute drills. The team might go from a non-mobile check-down maven at QB to a scrambler who can gain yards with his legs instead of letting his outlet valve do it for him. A new offensive system might be designed for more verticality and not prioritize the RB in passing situations as often.
One or more of these scenarios will happen to a few RBs who had nice receiving production last season. It is very important to show caution when investing draft capital into them and expecting a repeat performance. I believe these four will be hit the hardest in 2023 and should warrant some hesitancy in PPR leagues.
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4 Negative Target Regression RBs
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
Joe Lombardi is gone. Dallas let Kellen Moore walk right into another beautiful situation with the Chargers. It’s an incredible upgrade for Justin Herbert. He is one of the most talented downfield passers ever seen in football, and Lombardi’s offense really discouraged that type of forward-thinking.
If Moore contributes two things to Los Angeles this season, they will be verticality and pace. Austin Ekeler thrived in Lombardi’s dink-and-dunk, sideline-to-sideline philosophy of stressing defenses. He led all RBs last season with 127 targets (7.5 per game). Unfortunately for Ekeler, I expect this number to plummet in Moore’s offense.
Tony Pollard was often deployed as a slot WR in college at Memphis. Their offense ran a lot of 21 and 31 personnel, and that was a way for them to get all of their best playmakers on the field at the same time. Pollard, in his fourth season in Moore’s offense, set a career-high in 2022 with only 55 targets in 16 games. The focus of his scheme is stretching the defense vertically while exploiting zone weaknesses and matchups over the middle.
RBs are comparatively non-existent in the passing game, even if they have the receiving chops of a Pollard (or Ekeler). Ekeler was the RB1 last season and still carries an ADP firmly in the first round of fantasy drafts. He is 28 years old and still has never rushed for 1,000 yards in a season. We would need every one of his 18 touchdowns from last season to remain for him to pay off as a first-round pick if his target volume drops below 100. I’m afraid he won’t even get 80.
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
Saquon Barkley is still that dude. He is a generational talent at RB and should get as many looks for the Giants as possible. Will he? I find it very hard to imagine we see another 76 targets for Barkley in 2023. He was targeted an absurd 121 times as a rookie, but that was with post-modern statue Eli Manning at the helm.
Daniel Jones is among the most athletic QBs in the league and now has quite a few more short-area options to choose from. In addition to Wan’Dale Robinson and Isaiah Hodgins, the Giants have seemingly leased the services of Snow White’s fraternity of slot receivers this season.
Saquon is a great pass protector, to boot, so it is very worrisome to his prospects in PPR. The lack of competing personnel played a large part in New York leaning heavily into Saquon last year, and now they can seemingly ease off his burden. He is still worth a premium pick but with less upside if you’re drafting for that sort of thing.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
2022 was an embarrassing season for the New England Patriots and legendary coach Bill Belichick. Not only did they finish third in the AFC East at 8-9 to miss the playoffs, the fingers were all pointed sharply at the Pats’ offense. In a result that surprised absolutely no one, Joe Judge and Matt Patricia were utter failures as co-offensive coordinators. Blossoming first-round QB Mac Jones regressed alarmingly, and there seemed to be no rhyme or reason to the unit’s directive when on the field.
One benefactor from this perfect storm of excrement was talented RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson was called upon to carry the offense like Atlas himself, especially once Damien Harris fell to injury. Jones checked down incessantly to Stevenson all season, while the WRs and TEs crashed into one another and failed to gain ample separation for their QB.
2023 marks the return of Bill O’Brien as Patriots OC, the same position he held in 2014 back in the Gronk/Hernandez golden years. The team acquired JuJu Smith-Schuster as a zone-beating big slot and Mike Gesicki as a seam-stretching vertical TE. Gesicki and Hunter Henry are already on record, saying O’Brien showed them tape from 2014 and that unstoppable TE tandem.
New England also extended DeVante Parker and retained Kendrick Bourne. Speed merchant Tyquan Thornton is entering his second season out wide. Stevenson’s 88 targets were more a necessity than a luxury, based on last season’s dysfunction. O’Brien will have the offense better prepared for Sundays. A clearer game plan means more trust in a young QB to spread the targets around the formation. Stevenson is also more likely to assume Harris’ early down role and leave the third down work for Ty Montgomery or Pierre Strong.
Samaje Perine (RB – CIN)
When Javonte Williams‘ recovery was still operating on an uncertain timeframe, Samaje Perine’s addition from Cincinnati was very appealing for fantasy managers looking to hedge. Denver’s offense was godawful under Nathaniel Hackett last season and exacerbated by Javonte’s lost season to ACL surgery. Williams looks good at training camp. He is on track for the most optimistic of return-to-play timeframes offered last year when he went down. Williams is doing so well in camp that new head coach Sean Payton is already showing the young star RB how he envisions him as Denver’s version of Alvin Kamara. If that makes Perine the Mark Ingram half of the tandem, his 51 targets as Cincinnati’s third-down back behind Joe Mixon is going to be very tough to match.
Perine, to his credit, is a versatile RB in his own right. He is good in pass protection and a surehanded receiver with adequate shiftiness to get the job done after the catch. He is not Javonte, who has also shown off strong form out of the backfield and elite tackle-breaking in space. Javonte is a beefier Kamara and might even hold up to a larger workload between the tackles than the Saints’ back. It remains to be seen how quickly a return to form follows his return to play, but Williams is exactly the type of bell cow that can completely eclipse any meaningful role for Perine in 2023.
More Fantasy Football Regression Candidates
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- Running Backs Expected to See More Targets
- Players Expected to See Fewer Carries | More Carries
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