It’s easy to get caught up in the training camp hype surrounding some of the incoming rookies in the 2023 class. However, taking a chance on a player and having it blow up in your face is never fun. If you want to avoid the mess, here are three rookies to avoid in your fantasy football drafts this season.
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Rookies to Avoid
Tank Dell (WR – HOU)
Sometimes you love a player’s talent but hate their situation. That’s the case for me with Texans WR Tank Dell. The undersized slot receiver has made heads turn in training camp, getting fantasy football managers hot and bothered about his rookie campaign. However, this team has a rookie QB in C.J. Stroud and a rookie head coach in DeMeco Ryan. Historically, rookie signal-callers do not support high-end fantasy receivers.
Furthermore, while Dell is unquestionably talented, he will compete for targets with WRs Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and John Metchie, and TE Dalton Schultz. The time will come when Dell becomes fantasy relevant, but it isn’t in 2023.
Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
There hasn’t been a bigger Roschon Johnson truther out there than me this offseason. The rookie RB in Chicago got few chances to shine in college while stuck behind fellow rookie Bijan Robinson, and I believe he has a future as a solid fantasy asset. However, this won’t be the year.
There’s no denying third-year QB Justin Fields is in a make-or-break season. He is also the team’s primary rushing option. The Bears also acquired RB D’Onta Foreman and have incumbent ball carrier Khalil Herbert in the backfield heading into the season. Barring injury or an absolute failure to perform, there isn’t much chance Johnson will see enough volume this season to be fantasy relevant, especially at an 11th-round average draft position (ADP).
Josh Downs (WR – IND)
Here is another case of a rookie WR with a rookie QB. As with Dell, the talent is there, and in coming seasons, Indianapolis rookie pass catcher Josh Downs will have his moment in the sun. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, Downs will be paired with the freakishly athletic darling of the offseason, Anthony Richardson.
It’s no secret that Richardson has a cannon for an arm and can run like Adrian Peterson. However, there are significant questions about his passing accuracy, and it appears that head coach Shane Steichen will keep this team primarily on the ground in 2023. Down will find a role in the Colts offense this season. Unfortunately, it will likely be a bit part that won’t help your fantasy football teams win.
Kendre Miller (RB – NO)
With a looming suspension for New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara, rookie RB Kendre Miller saw his fantasy stock rise quickly. With Jamaal Williams being the only viable ball carrier in the offense, it stood to reason that Miller would feast in an offense that regularly utilizes two RBs.
We now know that Kamara received a slight three-game suspension from the league and will be back and ready to rock in Week 4. It has been assumed that Williams, the league leader in rushing touchdowns last season, will handle most of the goalline work. With Kamara back, he will take his usual duties as a dynamic pass-catching threat out of the backfield. Miller will get work, spelling both Williams and Kamara, but past Week 3, it’s unlikely that will be enough to keep him fantasy relevant.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt
