Spending a meaningful pick on a defense in fantasy football leagues is unwise. There is too much volatility from season to season and game to game for defenses. Instead, gamers are encouraged to wait until late to select their defense. The following four defenses are attractive selections, with average draft positions (ADP) after 180. In fact, three of the suggested defenses have an ADP after the 200th pick.
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Late-Round DST Targets
Denver Broncos DST: 182.7 ADP/206 ECR
The Broncos were a disaster last year. Nathaniel Hackett failed miserably as the head coach. Denver hit the reset button this year, shipping a pick to the Saints for Sean Payton. The Super Bowl-winning head coach brought a familiar face back to Denver as his defensive coordinator, adding Vance Joseph to his staff.
While last year’s Broncos were arguably the most disappointing team in the league, their defense was stellar. According to Football Outsiders, Denver was 10th in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). And per Pro-Football-Reference, the Broncos allowed the third-fewest yards per play (5.0), tied for 14th in turnovers (23) and tied for 13th in scoring defense (21.1 points per game).
They can get off to a good start as favorites at home in the first two weeks of the year. According to Betting Pros, the Broncos are 4.0-point favorites against the Raiders in Week 1 and 3.5-point favorites against the Commanders in Week 2. And Las Vegas’s implied total in Week 1 is only 20.25 points. If the Broncos play well in the first two weeks, gamers can reassess the situation before they travel to Miami in Week 3.
New Orleans Saints DST: 204.3 ADP/217 ECR
The Saints had a stout defense in 2022. They were eighth in total defense DVOA, allowed the fifth-fewest yards play (5.0), tied for the fifth-most sacks (48) and allowed the ninth-fewest points per game (20.3). Sadly, they forced only 14 turnovers. Otherwise, their defense was comfortably an above-average unit.
They start the year as 3.0-point favorites at home against the Titans. The Saints have a chance to pile up sacks if they award their defense a lead to protect. Ryan Tannehill had the fourth-highest sack rate (9.2%) among qualified quarterbacks in 2022. And Tennessee’s implied total is a putrid 19.0 points.
The Saints are also 1.0-point favorites in Carolina in Week 2. Rookie Bryce Young might need time to get his feet wet before adjusting to the speed of the NFL, and his lackluster receiving corps could make things tough against New Orleans’s above-average defense. In addition, Carolina’s offensive line has struggled in pass protection in the preseason, ranking 25th in pass protection by Pro Football Focus (PFF).
The run out of useful matchups might not end after Week 2. The Saints are just a 1.0-point underdog in Green Bay in Week 3, a 5.5-point favorite at home against the Buccaneers in Week 4, a 2.5-point underdog in New England in Week 5, a 3.0-point favorite in Houston in Week 6, a 1.0-point favorite against the visiting Jaguars in a Thursday Night Football Game in Week 7 and a 2.0-point favorite in Indianapolis in Week 8. The list could go on beyond Week 8. Simply, the Saints could be a set-it-and-forget-it defense for the first few months of the fantasy football season. As a result, New Orleans is my favorite defense to target late in season-long fantasy drafts.
Green Bay Packers DST: 231.3 ADP/249 ECR
The Packers are one of the biggest mysteries entering the 2023 season, and the utility of Green Bay’s defense hinges to an extent on the competency of Jordan Love. If Love struggles to produce first downs and points, the defense will often be in compromised positions. However, the defense could be in advantageous positions if Love is average or above average.
Green Bay’s defense also has to improve to help fantasy football teams. They were below average in most measures last year. Yet, their defense has seven first-round picks since the 2018 NFL Draft. The following table shows those defenders on their 2023 roster, with position designations courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.
Jaire Alexander is a superstar in the secondary. And Rashan Gary was following up a breakout 2021 campaign with a hot start to 2022 before he tore his ACL in Week 9. Gary is rehabbing the injury, but his status for Week 1 is still up in the air. Green Bay's DST is much less intriguing for Week 1 if Gary cannot suit up.
But if he can play, they could pile up sacks and points against the Bears. The Packers are 2.5-point underdogs in Chicago. Still, the Bears aren't an established above-average offense. And if Justin Fields is forced to drop back, the Packers' DST can score many points against him. Fields had the highest sack rate (14.7%) among qualified quarterbacks last season by a massive margin, 4.5% higher than the second-highest mark. Geno Smith and Lamar Jackson were tied for the 12th-highest mark at 7.4%, and Fields's sack rate was nearly double theirs. Fields also had the second-highest interception rate (3.5%).
After Week 1, the Packers are 2.0-point underdogs on the road against the Falcons and 1.5-point favorites at home against the Saints in Week 2 and Week 3. Desmond Ridder had a 7.3% sack rate in 2022 and didn't light the world on fire as a rookie. And Derek Carr had a career-high 2.8% interception rate last year. Therefore, Green Bay's early-season schedule is decent for the defense.
Washington Commanders DST: 235.3 ADP/235 ECR
Ron Rivera has been Washington's head coach since 2020, and they were third, 27th and ninth in total defense DVOA in those campaigns. And in 2022, they allowed the 12th-fewest yards per play (5.2), had the 12th-most sacks (43) and allowed the seventh-fewest points per game (20.2). Their front seven on defense is stacked with former first-round picks, and they bolstered their secondary in the draft by picking Emmanuel Forbes and Jartavius Martin 16th and 47th in this year's NFL Draft.
The Commanders can look like gangbusters in a mouthwatering matchup against the lowly Cardinals in Week 1. Washington is a 6.0-point favorite at home against Arizona, and the game's total is just 38.5 points, leaving the Cardinals with an implied total of 16.25 points.
Colt McCoy could start for the Cardinals in Week 1, and he had a 9.0% sack rate in 2022. Otherwise, Clayton Tune or Joshua Dobbs will start. Tune was a fifth-round pick in this year's draft. And the 31 drafted rookie quarterbacks who've started in their first professional season since 2018 were 10-20-1 in their first start. Dobbs would also have tough sledding since he has just over two weeks to learn the offense and build rapport with his new teammates.
Washington is a 3.5-point underdog in Denver in Week 2. Still, the defense can eat if Payton can't resurrect Russell Wilson's career. Wilson had the second-highest sack rate (10.2%) among qualified quarterbacks in 2022. Even though the Commanders are the cheapest defense in this piece, they're a desirable choice that gamers can start the first two weeks of the season.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson's Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro's Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson's Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen's 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every TeamMore QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Teamv2)| Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every TeamFantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every TeamFantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
