Thankfully, the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

In the seventh part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values and two potential sleepers from the NFC South.

• AFC ADP Sleepers, Busts & Values: East | North | South | West
• Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
• Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

ADP Values

Miles Sanders (RB – CAR): ADP 48.3 | RB19

The 2021 season was one to forget for Miles Sanders and his fantasy managers. The former Penn State star was the RB45, averaging 8.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, he didn’t have a single touchdown despite totaling 163 touches that season. Thankfully, Sanders bounced back last year. He was the RB13 in 2022, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the veteran had 11 rushing touchdowns, beating his career total entering the season by two.

Sanders was also one of the more underrated runners last year. He finished 13th in evaded tackles (64), 14th in true yards per rushing attempt (4.7), and 15th in breakaway runs (12) among running backs. Unfortunately, the veteran had almost no impact in the passing game, totaling only a 5.2% target share and 40.3% route participation. However, that will change in Carolina. Running backs have averaged 116.5 targets per year in the four full years Frank Reich was with the Indianapolis Colts. More importantly, Sanders could have even more rushing upside now that he doesn’t have to split goal-line work with Jalen Hurts.

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL): ADP 63.7 | TE6

Fantasy managers had high hopes last year for Kyle Pitts following his impressive rookie season. The former Gator was the TE7 in 2021, averaging 8.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite scoring only one touchdown. However, he joined Mike Ditka as the only two tight ends to have over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie. Unfortunately, Pitts was a massive fantasy bust last year, finishing as the TE33, averaging 6.2 fantasy points per game. However, fantasy players should expect a bounce-back season from the former Gator.

Marcus Mariota held Pitts back last year. His catch rate dropped from 61.8% as a rookie to 47.5% last season. Furthermore, he had a 59.3% catchable target rate, one of the worst in the NFL. Mariota completed only 23.5% of his pass attempts over 20 yards downfield. However, the former Gator had the highest target share among tight ends in 2022 (34.3%) and has a 91.2% route participation rate in his career. While Desmond Ridder won’t be an elite quarterback, he only has to be better than Mariota for Pitts to succeed this season.

Sleepers to Target

Adam Thielen (WR – CAR): ADP 143.3 | WR54

The veteran wide receiver has seen his fantasy production decline over the past few years. After totaling 24 receiving touchdowns in 2020 and 2021, Adam Thielen had only six last season. Yet, the former undrafted free agent still has plenty left in the tank. He was the WR13 on a points-per-game basis two years ago, averaging 12.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest, only 0.2 fewer than Tee Higgins. Meanwhile, the veteran was the WR30 last season, averaging 8.5 fantasy points per game, his lowest average since 2015.

However, he also saw his targets per game drop. Thielen averaged 7.3 targets per game in 2021 and 6.3 per game last season, despite Kirk Cousins having 82 more pass attempts than the year before. The veteran will be Bryce Young‘s security blanket receiver after the Panthers traded away DJ Moore this offseason. Moore averaged 133.5 targets per season over the past four years. Even if Thielen only sees 75% of those targets (100), he would have ranked 32nd among wide receivers last season. His days as a fantasy WR1 or WR2 are likely over. Yet, Thielen is undervalued at his late 12th-round ADP.

Juwan Johnson (TE – NO): ADP 188.3 | TE21

There isn’t much with the ADP or ECR I strongly disagree with, but Juwan Johnson’s TE21 ranking makes no sense. Last year, the former college wide receiver turned tight end was the TE11, averaging 7.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high. Furthermore, he set career-highs in receptions (43), targets (65), receiving yards (508) and touchdowns (seven). Johnson led the team in receiving touchdowns while finishing top three in receiving yards and targets. More importantly, the developing star finished third in receiving touchdowns among tight ends last year, only behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle.

Fantasy managers shouldn’t worry about the arrival of Jimmy Graham and Foster Moreau. Graham didn’t play last season and hasn’t had over 460 receiving yards since 2018. Moreau was solid for the Las Vegas Raiders, filling in for Darren Waller. Yet, he has only seven receiving touchdowns since his rookie season. Meanwhile, Johnson played with Derek Carr and the first team offense in the Saints’ Week 1 preseason matchup. Johnson should have a larger role this season, especially if Michael Thomas again struggles with injuries. While he lacks top-three TE upside, Johnson is my favorite sleeper at the position this season.

More Players to Target & Avoid

• Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
• Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
• Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
• Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
• How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
• Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
• Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
• Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
• DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
• Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
• Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
• Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
• Players to Avoid in Each Round
• Late-Round Draft Targets
• Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
• Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
• Late-Round WR Targets
• Late-Round TE Targets
• Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
• WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
• Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
• 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
• 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.