Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry. I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be avoiding like the plague. And below you’ll find a few free picks to help you prepare. Let’s have a great season.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid
Here are a few of my players to avoid in 2023 fantasy football.
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
There is NO WAY IN HELL I’M Drafting…
Deebo Samuel as a WR2 in Fantasy
Splits Week 1-7
24.4% tg / 27% TPRRWeeks 10-13 (with CMC)
23.9% tg share / 27% TPRROk so no difference there BUT….
2021 to 2022
His aDOT dropped from 8.1 to 4.2
His Deep Targets 0.9 to 0.4 per game… pic.twitter.com/Ul8xpPpQPm
— Derek Brown (aka Ugly John Daigle) (@DBro_FFB) May 10, 2023
Without his “wide back” role and with the 49ers bottling him up as a check-down specialist again, Deebo Samuel struggled to a WR28 finish in 2022. He still drew a strong share of the 49ers’ passing offense with a 25.4% target share (19th), but his aDOT was 4.2 (102nd), and he only saw five deep targets (108th) and 12 red zone looks (36th). Without the rushing equity and high-leverage roles to help pad his fantasy production, Samuel dissolved into a WR3. The results were even more frightening with Christian McCaffrey as a full-time player in the 49ers’ offense last year. Samuel was WR58, WR5, WR66, and WR33 in that four-game sample in weekly fantasy scoring. That’s not exactly the type of output you want from a player that’s being drafted as a WR2 in every format. No, thank you.
George Pickens (WR – PIT)
I think YOU…
❤️ George Pickens more than I do. ?♂️
— Derek Brown (aka Ugly John Daigle) (@DBro_FFB) April 27, 2022
Pickens had some standout moments in his rookie season, including highlight-reel catches and shadow realm run blocking reps. Still, overall if you were banking on him to be a major fantasy producer, you were probably disappointed. Pickens logged six weeks with top-24 fantasy finishes, but outside of those weeks, he was unstartable with eight weeks of WR50 or lower fantasy production. With Allen Robinson on the roster, expect the Steelers to utilize three wide receiver sets heavily. In Weeks 1-8, with the team heavily deploying 11 personnel, Pickens had a 15.1% target share, a 26% air yard share, and 1.19 yards per route run. He barely eclipsed a 15% target per route run rate. Pickens is a WR4/5 that could be the fourth option in a Kenny Pickett-led passing attack. I’ll let others fall on the hype sword in 2023.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – NE)
Smith-Schuster had a solid season last year in one of the best offenses in the NFL, but it wasn’t amazing, no matter how you slice it. The great Juju Smith-Schuster revival in Kansas City didn’t come to fruition as many hoped. He was the WR35 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 17.4% target share (46th) and 16.9% air yard share (70th). Smith-Schuster’s ability to beat zone coverage is his calling card these days, so he should help New England’s passing offense in this aspect. He should be the “new Jakobi Meyers” as a starter in two wide sets that flexes to the slot when they utilize 11 personnel. Smith-Schuster is an uninspiring WR4/5. Outside of Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots’ roster is a steaming pile of stink on offense.
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*