3 Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid (2023)

Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry. I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be avoiding like the plague. And below you’ll find a few free picks to help you prepare. Let’s have a great season.

More Fantasy Football Advice
Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE

Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid

Here are a few of my players to avoid in 2023 fantasy football.

D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI)

Consensus is drunk on aged Swift hype that is past its expiration date. Swift’s best asset is his pass-game utility, and it would be surprising if that is used often in Philadelphia. Last year the Eagles were dead last in target volume and target share to the running back position. Among 41 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks last year, Jalen Hurts had the sixth-lowest check-down rate (per FantasyPoints Data). Swift won’t get the receiving work to counteract losing early down, and red zone touches to a superior rusher in Rashaad Penny. We still haven’t talked about Kenneth Gainwell as a possible nuisance to his route per dropback rate. Give me Penny over Swift in every draft.

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

Terry McLaurin’s 2022 season was a tale of two halves. With Carson Wentz under center, McLaurin’s role withered, as he had a 16.3% target share, a 26.4% air yard share, and 1.52 yards per route run. McLaurin’s season would have been sunk if Wentz had kept ignoring him all season. Once Wentz was sidelined by injury, McLaurin exploded with Taylor Heinicke under center. With Heinicke, McLaurin had a 29.8% target share, a 44% air yard share, and 2.73 yards per route run (28% target per route run rate). McLaurin’s skills haven’t diminished one bit. The problem has been the quarterbacks tossing him the ball. At the moment, Washington is entertaining the Sam Howell experience under center in 2023 (it could easily be Jacoby Brissett). With Howell and new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy, we have no clue about the possible offensive scheme in Washington in 2023. Will they play slow? Will they be run-centric? You can’t just cut and paste previous seasons of the Chiefs’ offensive output and transpose them to Washington. Andy Reid had a hand in playcalling. How much is debatable, but we don’t know. With a new offensive system, quarterback questions, and play volume worries, I’m out on McLaurin.

Mike Evans (WR – TB)

Did Mike Evans fall off the age cliff last year or, at the very least, begin his descent? It does appear that way on paper. Evans finished 17th in raw target volume but 37th in target share (19.7%). He was 11th in air yard share (35.4%), third in deep targets, and 22nd in red zone targets. All these volume metrics are nice, but they will all take a hit with Tom Brady gone. His efficiency metrics are the real tale of the tape, as he was 33rd in yards per route run, 35th in route win rate, and 47th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). With metrics that have gone in the tank and incoming wretched quarterback play, Evans is an easy fade this year.