2024 NFL Draft: 12 First-Round Prospects with the Most to Prove

With Week 1 of the college football season just around the corner, here’s a look at 12 prospects who are currently considered potential first-round picks but whose draft stock could be significantly influenced by their play in the coming year.

2024 NFL Draft Guide
2024 NFL Draft Prospects to Watch: QB | RB | WR | TE | OT | iOL | DL | EDGE | LB | S | CB
2024 NFL Mock Draft: First Round Picks & Predictions
Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE

2024 NFL Draft: 12 First-Round Prospects with the Most to Prove

Quinn Ewers (QB – Texas)

Ewers didn’t make the first round of my latest projection, but he certainly has the tools to end up there with a strong season in 2023. He topped 300 yards twice last season and threw two or more touchdowns in only four games. Increasing his overall consistency, decision-making, and play under pressure are all musts in a make-or-break season.

Joe Milton III (QB – Tennessee)

Having transferred from Michigan, Milton filled in admirably for Hendon Hooker at the end of last season and has an incredible combination of size and arm talent. There will be those who question whether Josh Heupel’s system translates to the NFL, but I expect him to pass many other quarterback prospects and end up in round one if he plays well.

TreVeyon Henderson (RB – Ohio State)

Right now, I suspect Henderson’s on the outside looking in, but some believe what he showed back in 2021, a year in which he ran for 1,248 yards and 15 touchdowns, could get him there. However, last year he was limited to just 106 carries in an injury-plagued campaign, so he’ll have to stay healthy and recover his freshman-year form.

Emeka Egbuka (WR – Ohio State)

Egbuka is one of the most productive players on this list, but over two-thirds of his work came from the slot last season, and the vast majority of his production came over the middle of the field, with 48/74 catches coming between the numbers and within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage. I’d like to see him produce more on the outside this year.

Xavier Worthy (WR – Texas)

Maybe I’m being unfair, as Worthy’s been productive in each season and shown that he can function as a deep threat and as a dangerous player with the ball in his hands, but last season wasn’t his best. Part of that involved QB play and how he was used (more deep routes), but he also dropped seven balls and caught barely half of his targets (52.2%).

Amarius Mims (OT – Georgia)

Mims started Georgia’s playoff game against Ohio State and the national championship against TCU, but those were his only two starts last year. He did play nearly 400 snaps in total, but to establish himself as a legitimate first-round pick, he’ll have to follow in the footsteps of 2023 first-rounder Broderick Jones and provide quality starting play all year.

Michael Hall Jr. (DL – Ohio State)

In my latest mock, Hall came off the board at #12 overall and could easily end up as one of the best three techniques in the class. However, last season he started just five games, none after the Penn State game in week nine, and totaled just 266 snaps on the year. Emerging from Ohio State’s deep defensive line rotation is a must if he wants to go high.

Maason Smith (DL – LSU)

Smith’s clearly one of the most talented prospects in this year’s class, which is why I had him coming off the board in the first round of my latest mock draft (#17 overall). However, that’s more of a projection-based pick at this point, as he was more of a rotational player as a freshman and ended up tearing his ACL eight snaps into the season opener in 2022.

Tyleik Williams (DL – Ohio State)

Essentially, Williams is in the same boat as Michael Hall Jr. They both played well when they were on the field but never really made it past Taron Vincent and Ty Hamilton on the depth chart. Now that Vincent is in the NFL, there should be more snaps for both of these two to show what they can do in a relatively deep, competitive defensive line group.

Chop Robinson (DE – Penn State)

I currently have Robinson going #10 overall in my mock draft, despite the fact that he didn’t start a single game last year. Over the 455 total snaps he played in his first year at Penn State, he looked like the real deal, but showing that he can maintain his efficiency over a larger snap count while continuing to add bulk and strength will be critical in 2023.

Denzel Burke (CB – Ohio State)

Burke’s getting a lot of early-to-mid first-round hype at this point, but his status is largely projection-based at this point. He didn’t intercept a pass last year and still needs to improve his overall balance and recognition skills to stay in phase and put himself in a position to make plays on the ball. There’s some stiff competition in the corner class.

Andrew Mukuba (DB – Clemson)

I don’t think any of the safety prospects have solidified themselves as the best in the class, but Mukuba is one of the most talented of the bunch. He was able to step right in as a freshman and play well but got exposed last year, particularly down the stretch. Part of that may be because he was asked to play more extensively from the slot than in 2021.

Notice any prospects I missed? Feel free to let me know on Twitter @draftexaminer!