The NFL regular season is quickly approaching. One of the off-season highlights for me is when Week 1 DraftKings pricing is released. It signals the beginning of the NFL DFS season. With that, my overwhelming love for DFS takes hold again. After quickly perusing the Week 1 pricing, here are some standouts to consider when you begin to build those Week 1 DraftKings lineups with our DFS optimizer.
*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (QB – SEA) – $6,100
Smith should shred a Rams’ pass defense that will look like a shell of its former self in 2023. This isn’t to say that the Los Angeles secondary was good last year, as they allowed the highest adjusted completion rate in the NFL last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Smith should have a field day against the Rams’ zone coverage. Los Angeles defended the eighth-most pass attempts in zone last year while giving up the tenth-highest CPOE. Smith was 12th in yards per attempt and tenth in EPA per play (tied) against zone coverage last year.
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN) – $5,900
Russell Wilson will be ready to rock in Week 1 against a Raiders’ secondary that loves man coverage. Despite his putrid 2022 season, Wilson still ranked seventh in yards per attempt and fifth in air yards per attempt against man coverage. Marry that with a Las Vegas secondary that defended the fourth-most dropback in man coverage last year, and Wilson is primed for a big Week 1. Las Vegas allowed the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate and 11th-highest hero throw rate in man coverage in 2022. The kitchen was remodeled in the off-season. It’s time for Russ to cook in 2023.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) – $7,800
Henry should feast in Week 1 against a retooled Saints’ run defense. Last year New Orleans saw their run defense star dim, and while they had added talent up front this offseason asking them to return to being one of the league’s best in Week 1 is a tall order. Last year Henry had the fifth-most gap scheme runs and the eighth-most rushing yards on gap runs. New Orleans was gashed by gap runs last year, allowing the fourth-highest success rate to gap scheme runs (per Fantasy Points Data). The Big Dawg will eat in the Big Easy.
Brian Robinson (RB – WAS) / Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) – $5,100 / $5,200
Both of these Commanders’ backs are in play in Week 1. The Cardinals were abysmal in attempting to stop running backs on the ground and through the air last season. I don’t see that improving in year one under this new regime. Last year Arizona gave up the fourth-highest explosive run rate, second-highest touchdown rate, and third-most receptions to running backs. Pick your poison. Fire up Robinson or Gibson in Week 1.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave (WR – NO) / Rashid Shaheed (WR – NO) – $6,500 / $3,700
Speed. Speed. Speed. These two Saints wideouts have it and will rip the Titans’ secondary apart to open the season. Last year the Titans allowed the most receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in the NFL when defending go routes. Per Fantasy Points Data, Olave ranked 14th in yards per route run on go routes, while Shaheed was fourth-best. The Saints will take to the sky in Week 1 to try and keep pace, with Henry trouncing them on the ground.
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) – $8,200
The Cheetah will run wild against the Bolts. Last year the Chargers defended the seventh-most routes in man coverage while allowing the 11th-highest yards per route run and catch rate in this coverage type. Hill crushed man coverage with the highest target per route run rate and third-highest yards per route run against man coverage (per Fantasy Points Data). Hill is a wide receiver to prioritize paying up for on this slate.
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN) – $6,600
Jeudy will be the tip of the spear for Wilson against the Raiders. If I’m looking for Wilson to succeed against man coverage in this matchup, he’ll have to lean on Jeudy. Last year Jeudy led all wide receivers in yards per route run against man coverage while also drawing a 19.1% target share and 25% target per route run rate against man. Jeudy begins his breakout campaign here.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR) – $4,800
Seattle and their heavy use of zone coverage have been a saving grace for tight ends for years, and I don’t expect anything differently this season. Last year Seattle allowed the highest yards per reception to tight ends and the third-most fantasy points to inline tight ends. Last season Higbee lined up inline on 66.5% of his snaps. Look for Matthew Stafford to lean on Higbee here.
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