Navigating the tight end landscape is an annual nightmare for fantasy gamers. Thus, spending a premium pick on the position for theoretical security is tempting. But bypassing higher-ceiling alternatives at other positions is a significant opportunity cost. As a result, the first listed bust isn’t unreasonably ranked relative to other tight ends. Instead, he’s an ill-advised pick and a likely bust because of his early average draft position (ADP) in half-PPR formats.
The second tight end isn’t merely a probable bust because of the opportunity cost to pick him, though that doesn’t help him. The second listed bust in this piece has stiffer target competition in 2023 and lacks the efficiency to cede volume and remain a compelling option at the position. So, gamers should avoid the two following landmines at their ADPs in fantasy football drafts.
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Top-10 TE Busts
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN): TE3, 43.3 ADP/TE3, 47 ECR
Hockenson hit the ground running after the Vikings traded for him during the 2022 season. He didn’t require a ramp-up period to get on the same page as Kirk Cousins and emerge as the quarterback’s second-favorite option in Minnesota’s passing attack.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), from Week 9 (when Hockenson debuted with the Vikings) through Minnesota’s loss in the Wild Card Round, Hockenson was second on the club in targets (92), receptions (70) and receiving yards (648). Hockenson’s numbers were encouraging on the surface.
However, Justin Jefferson is a volume hog in a tier with only a handful of others. The options behind Jefferson were lackluster last year, including a washed-up Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn, who’s a JAG (just a guy). So, while Jefferson dominated a large piece of Minnesota’s passing-game pie, Hockenson was targeted on a stellar 23.4% of his routes, partly because the Vikings had lackluster ancillary options.
The passing attack likely upgraded their No. 2 wideout significantly in the NFL Draft when they picked Jordan Addison in the first round. Addison will cut into Hockenson’s looks if he quickly adjusts to professional football after an accomplished college career.
Fewer targets would harm Hockenson’s 2023 outlook since most of his value was driven by volume last year. His efficiency and PFF grading left something to be desired for a top-50 fantasy pick. Hockenson had 1.65 Y/RR in 11 games for the Vikings, which would have ranked ninth out of 48 tight ends targeted at least 25 times last season (including the postseason). He also had PFF’s ninth-highest receiving grade. Obviously, that wasn’t a lousy grade, but it wasn’t elite, either.
Even in a high-volume role for the Vikings last year, Hockenson’s 10.9 half-PPR points per game from Week 9 through Week 17 were good rather than Earth-shattering. His scoring during that stretch would have been the third-most half-PPR points per game in the entire 2023 fantasy season, but it wouldn’t have blown his peers out of the water.
Furthermore, Hockenson exceeded 10.0 half-PPR points only three times in the nine-game sample from Week 9 through Week 17, matching the number of times he had fewer than 7.0 half-PPR points during that span. And he had precisely one top-five-TE weekly finish with the Vikings. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze to spend a top-50 pick on Hockenson instead of selecting an RB2, WR2 or a quarterback, such as Justin Herbert (QB6 and 44.7 ADP), Justin Fields (QB7 and 44.7) or Trevor Lawrence (QB8 and 54.7).
Evan Engram (TE – JAC): TE8, 81.3 ADP/TE8, 95 ECR
Engram resurrected his career with the Jaguars last year on a one-year prove-it deal, distancing himself from the stench of being misused by Big Blue’s incompetent previous coaching regimes. The athletically gifted tight end was the TE8 in half-PPR points per game (8.5) last year among tight ends who played more than one game.
So, at a glance, it’s not outrageous for him to be drafted as the TE8 this season. But a deeper dive into Engram’s production last year isn’t kind, and Jacksonville’s passing-game hierarchy change isn’t favorable for him, either.
Among 48 tight ends targeted at least 25 times last season, Engram was 17th in PFF’s receiving grade and 14th in Yards per Route Run (1.45 Y/RR). Thus, his efficiency wasn’t top-10 caliber.
The speedy tight end also isn’t an imposing weapon in the red zone. According to our red zone stats, Lawrence threw 35 passes inside the 10-yard line, directing just three to Engram. He converted only one of his targets into a touchdown, and Engram’s three targets in that area were tied for just the fourth most on the team. Therefore, even if Lawrence and the offense make another leap this year, Engram is likely low in the pecking order to score touchdowns.
Moreover, Engram is likely to see fewer targets with the reinstatement of Calvin Ridley from suspension. Per PFF, Engram’s 114 targets trailed Christian Kirk‘s 150 and Zay Jones‘s 137 last season. Now, Ridley will almost assuredly knock Engram’s already ho-hum 18.6% targets per route run down, and Engram lacks the efficiency and red zone equity to make up for a dip in his volume.
Engram’s stock is down, and spending a top-100 pick, let alone his 81.3 ADP, to draft him is a poor use of resources. Instead, gamers should keep waiting and fire a dart — or two — elsewhere.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- our red zone stats (v2 | v3)
- our red zone stats
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- our red zone stats | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- our red zone stats
- our red zone stats (v2)| our red zone stats | our red zone stats
- our red zone stats | our red zone stats
- our red zone stats
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.