Let’s dive into fantasy football sleepers! I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Be prepared to find hidden talents across all teams, including those in unexpected situations like the Arizona Cardinals. My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform).
Get ready to make strategic moves and uncover the next breakout stars! Here are my top fantasy football sleepers for all NFL teams. Below we’ll offer a free look at a few of these names.
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
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Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
Zay Flowers spent four seasons at Boston College simply dominating as the team’s best wide receiver. He posted a career 33% dominator rating — highest in the draft class. His senior year was truly special as the 5-foot-9, 182-pound wideout racked up 78 receptions for 1,077 yards and 12 receiving TDs. Per Sports Info Solution, Flowers finished 3rd in the class in unique routes run, 6th in target share (30%) and third in deep route percentage (49%). With first-round draft capital and projected inside/slot usage that will work well with QB Lamar Jackson…don’t count out Flowers emerging as Baltimore’s WR1. The best ability is availability… which has not been the case for either Odell Beckham Jr. or Rashod Bateman. Targeting highly drafted rookie WRs tends to be a +EV strategy anyway. 26% of 1st round WRs drafted since 2013 have finished as top-24 options. 32% inside the top-36. Rookie WRs ADPs often do not fully capture the upside they possess. Draft them all day every day.
Jonathan Mingo, the Carolina Panthers’ second-round pick from Ole Miss, is a compelling choice to lead all rookies in receiving yards in 2023, offering enticing +1200 odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Mingo possesses an impressive size/speed combination, standing at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, and boasting 4.46 speed. This physical profile, coupled with his ability to adjust to balls downfield and break tackles, makes him an appealing option for big receiving totals. Mingo’s downfield prowess should mesh well with his rookie quarterback, Bryce Young. In 2022, a notable 31% of his targets came on throws of 20-plus yards downfield, trailing only Marvin Mims in the class (38%). Remarkably, Mingo earned a superb 99.9 PFF grade when targeted downfield, equivalent to his draft classmates Jalin Hyatt and Jordan Addison. Furthermore, he excelled in generating yardage after the catch, ranking 10th in the FBS among wide receivers with at least 80 targets in yards after the catch per reception (7.5). Although Mingo had a breakout season at Ole Miss, amassing 51 catches for 861 receiving yards and five touchdowns, his trajectory was impacted by an injury in 2021. Nonetheless, he showcased his potential by averaging over 100 receiving yards per game in the first three games of the season before being sidelined. The Panthers receiving corps features two veterans in Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark Jr., but Mingo has a strong chance to emerge as the team’s primary wide receiver in his rookie year. With his draft capital, an immediate opportunity for playing time, and ability to generate significant yardage both after the catch and downfield, Mingo presents a savvy bet to lead all rookies in receiving yards. It’s worth noting that Panthers General Manager Scott Fitterer previously drafted a wide receiver from Ole Miss in the second round, DK Metcalf, back in 2019. In his first year, Metcalf finished third among rookies in receiving yards, while leading in targets and routes run. This precedent adds further credibility to Mingo’s potential impact.
Darnell Mooney ranked 12th in air yards share (37%) and 15th in target share (27%) in his 11 healthy games played in 2022. If he can return to 100% off a late November broken ankle, the fourth-year wide receiver can play an integral role in Fields’ growth as a passer in 2023. Specifically, the two should be able to connect on Fields’ long ball, providing Mooney with spiked fantasy weeks. I’d also bet on Mooney emerging as the team’s primary slot receiver, with D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool operating from the outside in 3 WR sets.
Elijah Moore is in a brand-new situation with the Cleveland Browns and could easily emerge as the No. 2 WR on the offense. Because the talent is THERE. Moore was the WR2 overall during his last stretch of six games during his rookie season, despite catching passes from Mike White, Zach Wilson, and Josh Johnson. I am buying Moore with the hopes that he recaptures that same fantasy ceiling with an upgraded quarterback and a new situation in 2023. There’s a path where he is easily second on the team in targets, and I wouldn’t completely rule out him out-targeting Cooper after we saw Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones (a free agent at the end of the season) post similar production at times in 2022. He should project as the team’s locked-and-loaded starting slot WR, with rookie third-rounder Cedric Tillman pushing DPJ for snaps on the perimeter.
Cooper’s status as a “fake alpha” always seems to improve the efficiency of the No. 2 WRs he plays alongside, which further bolsters the case for Moore to hit value in 2023. Names like Michael Crabtree, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, and Donovan Peoples-Jones all thrived with Cooper. I expect Moore to be the latest name to benefit, as Deshaun Watson‘s new favorite vertical target from the slot. Watson posted the league’s second-highest passer rating targeting the slot in his final year in Houston (112.4).
Brandin saw a reduced role in the Texans’ offense this past season, but he still has plenty in the tank. The soon-to-be 30-year-old earned a 22% target share in 2022 (6.7 targets per game). After re-entering the lineup in Week 16 for Houston, Cooks finished the year as WR18 in points per game. He also averaged 1.64 yards per route run (39th), which was superior to anyone on Dallas last season not-named CeeDee Lamb (Brown, 70th). The former first-rounder is a great fit in Dallas but be warned that a heavy-run approach will make Cooks extremely boom-or-bust for fantasy purposes. He finished 9th in the percentage of catches for 20-plus yards (23%) and as PFF’s 7th-highest graded WR on targets 20-plus air yards – highlighting his big-play ability. Michael Gallup caught only one of his 11 deep targets last season.
He checks off all the boxes of a Day 3 sleeper WR, but the Green Bay Packers couldn’t wait until Day 3 draft him in the 2023 NFL Draft. They selected Reed 50th overall. Expect the Michigan State product to step in and be the immediate No. 2 WR. He broke out at an early age, at 18 years old while playing alongside NFL talent at Western Michigan. In 2021, Reed blew up as a junior, with 1,026 yards and ten receiving touchdowns en route to a career-high 34% dominator rating. His 23-year-old age isn’t ideal, but his experience might just help him hit the ground running sooner rather than later, especially considering that Reed flashed ability as a downfield threat with a top-5 deep target rate (29%) in his draft class in 2022. He also caught eight receiving TDs on 20-plus air-yard throws in 2021, which trailed only A.T. Perry and Jordan Addison in the nation. Reed also returned kicks at both Western Michigan and Michigan State, further bolstering his sleeper status. In 2018 as a true freshman, Reed was PFF’s 4th-highest graded punt returner in the nation. In 2021, he led the FBS in yards per punt return (19.8).
Nico Collins owns an ADP outside the top 60 WRs. His price is ridiculously cheap, considering his main competitors for targets include Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, Robert Woods, Tank Dell and Noah Brown. Collins led the 2022 Texans in air yards share and in target rate per route run (23%). He also finished 20th in expected yards per route run (1.94). With a quarterback upgrade coming in the form of C.J. Stroud, you need to be all over the Texans No. 1 discounted big-bodied wide receiver.
The emergence of second-year wide receiver Alec Pierce adds another layer of uncertainty to Michael Pittman’s role. Pierce, known for his deep-threat abilities, could potentially put up similar production or even share spike weeks with Pittman as a better “fit” with his rookie QB. Nine of Richardson’s 17 TDs came on 20-plus air-yard throws last season. His average depth of target (11.5) ranked fifth highest in his draft class in 2022. And new head coach Shane Steichen is no stranger to dialing up the deep ball. In his past stints running offenses with the Eagles and Chargers over the past three seasons, those teams all ranked inside the top-10 in total passing attempts of 20-plus air yards.
With a much lower ADP than Pittman, Pierce represents a value option for fantasy managers and raises questions about Pittman’s ability to be the sole standout in the Colts’ receiving corps. Pierce finished 10th in yards per reception (14.5) and first in the percentage of routes run aligned on the perimeter (93.2%). The sophomore WR is dialed into a starting role on the outside opposite Pittman, with all the other Colts WRs duking it out for slot duties. Parris Campbell as last year’s No. 2 WR, ranked 23rd in routes run per game.
Pierce’s ADP is WR65. He ranked 42nd in routes run last season among all WRs.
Understandably, the shine on Zay Jones‘ 2022 season has dimmed since the team added Calvin Ridley during the offseason. But we cannot overstate how effective Jones was in his first year in the offense. Jones played a nearly full-time role running a route on 87% of dropbacks (37.1 per game, 14th, same as Christian Kirk). He ended the year as the WR24 while posting career highs across the board in receptions (82), yards (823) and yards per route run (1.44). But what was most impressive, was Jones’ 27% top-12 finisher rate, which ranked 16th-best among all WRs. His four top-12 finishes were the same amount that Christian Kirk tallied. Even if Jones takes a small step back in terms of targets with the addition of Ridley, I don’t envision his actual playing time decreasing too drastically. Remember, the Jaguars had three WRs last season running a route on at least 73% of the dropbacks (30-plus per game). And Marvin Jones‘ departure vacates 22 targets of 20-plus air yards. There are still plenty of opportunities to go around in this Jaguars’ ascending offense, and Jones represents the cheapest access point.
A lackluster rookie season has everybody writing off 2022 second-round WR Skyy Moore. But the young WR showed bright spots as the season progressed. After JuJu Smith-Schuster got hurt in Week 10, Moore went on to lead all Chiefs WRs in targets over the next two weeks (12 targets, 10 catches for 99 yards, 3.19 yards per route run) as the team’s primary slot receiver. Moore was hyper-targeted on 36% of his routes (25% snap share, 4 targets) in Week 17 vs. the Broncos when, again, he saw high usage from the inside. And in the conference championship game, Moore once again commanded 6 targets, while running 12 routes from the slot (second-most in 2022). Many draft pundits and Chiefs beat writers are crowning Kadarius Toney as the heir to the KC WR1 chair, but Moore looks like the dark horse to earn starting slot duties that Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman left behind. Simply put, Moore saw 6 targets in the games where he ran at least 10 slot routes. He also had at least 2 receptions in five games where he ran at least 7 slot routes. Hardman and Smith-Schuster averaged 13.5 slot routes per game last season. Therefore, don’t count Moore out quite yet. Recall, Moore ranked second in college football in his final year in yards per route run from the slot.
Hunter Renfrow is this year’s Curtis Samuel. Everybody is just going to completely forget that Renfrow leveraged his savvy route-running to a 111-1096-9 stat line in 2021 because he was never healthy at any point in 2022. Don’t be that person who overlooks Renfrow. He showed in Week 18 that he still has “it” going a perfect 7-for-7 for a season-high 63 yards and 1 TD.
Last season, Chargers No. 3 WR Joshua Palmer ranked 6th in the NFL in routes run. LA was the only team to have three different WRs averaging 35-plus routes run per game. So, there’s a case to be made that even with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams ahead of Quentin Johnston on the current depth chart, the rookie can make a splash in one of the NFL’s most pass-happy offenses heralded by Justin Herbert. He’s big and fast enough to be a downfield weapon, which is perfect for spiked fantasy weeks. The 6-foot-3, 212-pound behemoth totaled 1,067 receiving yards, finishing fifth in his draft class with an elite 3.05 yards per route run. Johnston was a menace with the ball in his hands, finishing seventh in his draft class in yards after the catch per reception (8.9, 19 forced missed tackles). His forced missed tackle rate (38%) ranks first in the class per Sports Info Solutions. As a true freshman at 19 years old, Johnston broke out with a 21% dominator rating in 2020 as the team’s leading receiver, averaging 22.1 yards per reception – fifth best in the FBS.
3️⃣ WR Quentin Johnston has been making explosive plays across the middle and down the sidelines. He's an undervalued asset at his current ADP and fits well in the Kellen Moore scheme, which aims to create chunk plays. https://t.co/XmcRHFUY3N
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 21, 2023
Van Jefferson & Tutu Atwell (LAR)
Tutu Atwell was thrust into a larger role in 2022, and was halfway decent in a horrible situation. He finished the season 28th in expected yards per route run (1.85). However, from Week 12 onward when he started playing a full allotment of snaps, he still ranked outside the top 60 overall among WRs. All things considered, I still think I prefer Van Jefferson to Atwell. From Weeks 10-18, Jefferson was the WR39 coming off a major injury. But his 14% target rate was abysmal. How much of that is injury/QB-related remains to be seen. At least you can bet that Jefferson will be out there running a ton of routes. Allen Robinson ranked 17th in routes run per game last season.
Jordan Addison tends to be cheaper than fellow first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba despite the former having the much better landing spot as the No. 2 WR alongside Justin Jefferson in the Vikings offense. Last season, Adam Thielen was 9th in route participation, running a route on a whopping 94% of dropbacks with 18 red-zone targets. The veteran also ranked 8th in routes run per game (39.5). It’s Addison’s NFL team fit and college profile that have me fully expecting him to hit the ground running. Recall that Addison broke out as an 18-year-old freshman in 2020 with 60 catches for 662 receiving yards and four TDs. The early-age production is a sign of an elite prospect, and it clearly foreshadowed Addison’s rise to becoming one of the best WRs in college football. He transferred to USC from Pittsburgh last year and led the Trojans with 59 catches for 875 yards and eight TDs on 79 targets. But more importantly, the 5-foot-11 and 173-pound wide receiver proved that he could play more outside after spending most of his time in the slot at Pittsburgh.
Isaiah Hodgins seems like a completely forgotten WR, despite the fact that he could lead New York in targets in 2023. Once fully entrenched in the offense from Week 12 onward, Hodgins has zero drops on 45 targets and averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game – equivalent to Chris Olave and Deebo Samuel (WR25). He averaged 9.1 fantasy points per game overall and finished as a top-24 option in 44% of his 9 games played from Weeks 1-17.
The Giants are definitely home to the forgotten WRs. Next up, Darius Slayton. The former fifth-round pick went from an off-season trade/cut candidate to become the WR1 in the Giants offense as the team patchworked a functioning receiving room during the latter portion of the season. From Weeks 5-17, Slayton was the WR31 in total points (WR39 points per game) averaging 8.8 fantasy points, 59 receiving yards and nearly six targets per game (20% target share). The former Day 3 pick was used exclusively as Big Blue’s primary deep threat with a dominant 37% air yards share – a top-12 mark among all WRs. His 1.70 yards per route run represented a career-high and ranked 31st among 54 qualifying WRs with at least 80 targets. He also finished as a top-36 WR in 54% of his 13 contests (seven games). That was equal to the likes of Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams, Adam Thielen and Marquise Brown. He actually finished as a WR3 at a higher rate than D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk and Garrett Wilson.
Slayton re-signed with the Giants in the offseason, inking a two-year deal worth $6M with $4.9 M guaranteed. He is currently the team’s highest-paid WR and should be a lock for a full snap share in 2023. He should be able to slide seamlessly back onto the perimeter as the Giants big playmaker opposite Hodgins, as long as he can fend off 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt.
Jahan Dotson finished 12th in the NFL last season in the percentage of games inside the top-12. As a rookie, he posted a 27% top-12 rate, with 3 WR1 finishes. He had more WR1 finishes than Terry McLaurin, who played in 5 more games than Dotson. Factor in Dotson’s strong finish after his injury from Weeks 13-18, and he’s a no-brainer sleeper breakout candidate. Over that span, he led the Commanders with a 24% target share averaging 2.2 yards per route run.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Hoppen’s Final Round Draft Dart Throws
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
- The Worst Fantasy Football Team You Could Draft at ADP
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