As we all know, football is a game with many injuries. There is a huge edge if you can value injured players more accurately than your league mates.
I am a physical therapist who will be doing injury breakdowns this NFL season. This article will assess injuries that occurred throughout preseason so far and how you should adjust your draft strategy.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Injury Round-Up
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) | Overall ADP: 5
Cooper Kupp suffered a hamstring strain on Tuesday, Aug. 1. The latest reports state that he is day to day, leading me to believe it is a grade 1 injury. The median time to return to play (RTP) for a hamstring injury is around two weeks, with grade 1 strains taking less (3-10 days) and grade 2 strains taking longer (3-8 weeks). With Kupp being a veteran, don’t be surprised if they ease him in very slowly. While hamstrings are known to have a high re-injury risk in the fantasy community, this risk is significantly lower in injuries that are allowed to fully heal.
Concern level: Low
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) | Overall ADP: 19
Jonathan Taylor injured his ankle multiple times throughout the 2022 season and had an arthroscopic debridement, which is commonly known as a cleanup, on Jan. 29. This is a relatively minor procedure, and he should be 100% fully recovered by now. He has not been present at camp this week due to rehabbing off-site. It’s impossible to say if this is because of his contract situation, his ankle or a different injury, but all I can say for sure is that his ankle should be fully healed by now.
Concern level: High; it’s a very murky situation.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) | Overall ADP: 32
Breece Hall suffered an ACL tear on Oct. 23. Although the date of his surgery is unconfirmed, he will likely be around 9-10 months out from surgery by week 1, which is a big deal. The 9-month mark is significant when it comes to RTP from ACL injuries, as there is a significantly decreased risk for reinjury if you wait until the 9-month mark.
Hall has been doing cutting drills in practice, which is a good sign, but he still has an uphill battle to get reps with contact and in-game reps. Even if he does start week 1, it may be a limited workload, and he may not look explosive. Don’t panic, as his injury was a simple ACL tear, and these are generally quicker to recover from than multi-ligamentous injuries.
Concern level: Moderate
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) | Overall ADP: 40
Joe Burrow suffered a calf strain on July 27. Calf strains are tricky. They can have a pretty wide range of RTP timelines from a week or two all the way up to 8-10 weeks. Obviously, the median will be in the middle of those, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were cautious in Burrow’s return. Like hamstrings, a calf strain is likely to recur if it is not fully healed when returning to play. Burrow still hasn’t returned to practice, so I would monitor his status in practice up to your draft date if you’re planning to draft him.
Concern level: Low to moderate
Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA) | Overall ADP: 45
According to Pete Carroll (not a reliable source), Kenneth Walker suffered a groin injury on July 31. He is stated to be “week-to-week” and will likely miss most of training camp. If you believe in the talent of Zach Charbonnet, I would be worried that he could win touches over the injured Walker with a good showing in the preseason.
Concern level: Moderate to high
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) | Overall ADP: 68
Javonte Wiliams suffered an ACL, LCL, and posterolateral corner tear on Oct. 2. Williams has been a limited participant in practice so far and is expected to play during the preseason, which is typically the last hurdle to clear in RTP. As I mentioned earlier, the important 9-month mark has been passed already.
While multi-ligamentous injuries typically take a longer time to return, that is not always the case. Like Hall, I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts off slow, but he could become a huge contributor down the stretch.
Concern level: Moderate; monitor his status in practice and preseason games.
Kadarius Toney (WR – KC) | Overall ADP: 97
Kadarius Toney suffered a knee injury on July 23. He had a meniscectomy, which is removing the torn part of the meniscus. The healing process for this surgery is significantly faster than a meniscus repair. Usually, the RTP timeline for this surgery is between 4-8 weeks, with most athletes returning between 6-8 weeks. This gives Toney a decent chance to return for Week 1.
Still, I am very wary of drafting Toney. With his injury history and inability to ramp up to football activities due to missing all of training camp, the risk is too high for me.
Concern level: High
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL) | Overall ADP: 113
Rashod Bateman suffered a Lisfranc injury on Oct. 2 and aggravated it on Oct. 27. The mean time to RTP for NFL athletes with a Lisfranc was 11 months, leaving Week 1 in question for Bateman. Two months ago, Bateman received a cortisone injection, leading me to believe that he still had pain or inflammation, which is a minor setback. At this point, I would not be surprised if he misses the beginning of the season and could see him being WR3 on the depth chart by the time he’s ramped up.
Update: Bateman participated in practice on Wednesday, Aug. 9, in a very limited capacity.
Concern level: Moderate to high
Kyler Murray (ADP 151) | Overall ADP: 156
Kyler Murray suffered his ACL tear on Dec. 12. He had surgery on Jan 3. Week 1 of the Cardinals season will be eight months and one week from surgery. I do not expect them to clear their franchise QB for Week 1, but I do expect him to return earlier than the community thinks.
While he does rely on his legs more than most QBs, there is less of a performance decline for QBs in the first season after an ACL tear. I expect him to be cleared by around Week 6 and could be back to normal performance for the fantasy playoffs. I think he is worth a shot if you miss out on an elite QB at his ADP, especially if your league has an IR spot.
Concern level: Low to moderate
Rapid Fire
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL) | Overall ADP: 17
Tony Pollard suffered a high ankle sprain and broken fibula on Jan. 22. Pollard was cleared for camp, and we expect him to ease in slowly. He will likely be a full-go for Week 1.
Concern level: Low
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) | Overall ADP: 16
Garrett Wilson suffered a low ankle sprain on July 27. He returned to practice this week and will be a full-go for the start of the season.
Concern level: Low
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL) | Overall ADP: 63
Last year was J.K. Dobbins’ first year back from a devastating knee injury that involved multiple ligaments and a torn hamstring. Dobbins had an arthroscopic knee procedure during the season, and I expect him to be 100% healthy this season.
Concern level: Low to moderate. I’m more worried about him not practicing due to his contract and the limited time he may have to ramp up to football activities.
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) | Overall ADP: 67
Kyle Pitts had MCL surgery on Nov. 30. Barring any setbacks, I expect him to be fully ready to go for week 1.
Concern level: Low
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC) | Overall ADP: 84
Isiah Pacheco is expected to be fully cleared for contact by Aug. 20 following labral surgery. This gives him two and a half weeks to ramp up before Week 1, and I expect him to play close to his normal workload then.
Concern level: Low
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) | Overall ADP: 90
Dak Prescott injured his thumb on Sept. 11 and had surgery during the season. This likely had a decent impact on his play last season, and I expect he is fully recovered for this season.
Concern level: Low
Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ) | Overall ADP: 116
Aaron Rodgers broke his right thumb on Oct. 9. Similar situation to Prescott that I expect he is fully recovered for this season. One season removed from an MVP season, I don’t think he forgot how to play football since then.
Concern level: Low
Tim Patrick (WR – DEN) | Overall ADP: WR96
Tim Patrick tore his Achilles and is out for the season. Slight bump to Marvin Mims Jr.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Eric Hund is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joe, follow him on Twitter @TheDynastyPT.