It’s important to know who to target and who to pass on when it comes to your fantasy football draft. To get a better sense of players to avoid and others to reach for, use our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and compare them to a player’s average draft position (ADP). Players that are going higher in ADP versus ECR are likely those that you want to reconsider at their current cost. On the flipside, players that experts are higher on versus ADP are those that could be worth reaching for, or at least targeting at their current ADP.
And you can use our expert accuracy rankings to help determine which experts to select when you are building your custom fantasy football draft cheat sheets.
Here’s a look at players Andrew Erickson, Derek Brown, Pat Fitzmaurice and Ryan Wormeli are targeting at their current ADP.
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Best Fantasy Football Draft Targets: Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
Receivers Tyreek Hill (ADP: WR4) and Jaylen Waddle (WR11) are expensive but fairly priced. Tua Tagovailoa (QB11) might be a value if he stays healthy all year, but his concussion history makes him a risk. The Miami tight ends hold little fantasy appeal. We’re left looking for value in the Dolphins’ backfield, and third-round rookie De’Von Achane (RB41) offers it. Achane has blazing 4.32 speed, and while he’s small (5-9. 188), he averaged 23.2 touches a game for Texas A&M last year. Achane is a perfect fit for Miami head coach Mike McDaniel’s wide-zone running scheme and is more explosive than veterans Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
Zay Flowers spent four seasons at Boston College simply dominating as the team’s best wide receiver. He posted a career 33% dominator rating – the highest in the draft class. His senior year was truly special as the 5-foot-9, 182-pound wideout racked up 78 receptions for 1,077 yards and 12 receiving TDs. Per Sports Info Solution, Flowers finished 3rd in the class in unique routes run, 6th in target share (30%), and third in deep route percentage (49%). With first-round draft capital and projected inside/slot usage that will work well with Lamar Jackson…don’t count out Flowers emerging as Baltimore’s WR1 at a WR48 price tag. The best ability is availability… which has not been the case for either Beckham Jr. or Bateman.
– Andrew Erickson
Elijah Moore (WR – CLE)
As a rookie in 2021, Elijah Moore had a six-game stretch in which he had 34 catches for 459 yards and five touchdowns. He was the WR4 in PPR fantasy scoring over that span behind only Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen and Cooper Kupp. Moore didn’t an out last year and grew unhappy that QB Zach Wilson wasn’t targeting him enough. The 23-year-old Moore now finds himself in Cleveland, where he gets a QB upgrade with Deshaun Watson. Moore”s ADP is WR47, leaving ample room for profit if this former second-round draft pick recaptures the form he flashed as a rookie.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
Diontae Johnson is slated for a massive bounce-back campaign. He didn’t score last season – likely a fluke – and that’s being held against him, even though DJ ranks: 5th in total targets (460), 7th in receptions (281) and 9th in target share (25%) over the past three seasons. Johnson’s ability to command targets based on his 28% target share and seventh-ranked 137 targets in 2022 suggests he is a prime candidate for positive regression in many facets. His combined downfield targets and red-zone targets were the most of any player not to score in 2022. Those trends don’t tend to carry over from year-to-year. Buy-low on the WR15 in expected fantasy points per game from last season. His WR30 ADP is insulting.
– Andrew Erickson
Nico Collins (WR – HOU)
With an ADP of WR59, Nico Collins has attractive profit potential. Expected to be the Texans’ starting X receiver, Collins averaged 9.0 targets in the four games he played after Houston’s bye week last season, and he has an excellent chance to lead the Texans in targets in 2023. Collins is reportedly developing a strong rapport with rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The third-year receiver is poised for a breakthrough season and offers appealing value at a rummage-sale price.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Marvin Mims (WR – DEN)
Marvin Mims is being drafted outside the top 70 WRs after being drafted in the 2nd round. The Broncos traded up to select him despite them not having a glaring need for a WR. He looks like the perfect moonball target for Russell Wilson after ranking 3rd in the FBS in receiving yards and fifth in targets on 20-plus air-yard throws last year. At just 21 years old, Mims has the big-play ability to make a splash in Year 1 as the first overall pick for Denver Broncos in the newly established Sean Payton era. Keep in mind trading up for a skill position player is not out of the norm for Payton. He traded up for Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks and Alvin Kamara in previous drafts with the Saints. Maybe you’ve heard of them?
– Andrew Erickson
Skyy Moore (WR – KC)
That sound you heard was Skyy Moore zooming back up draft boards this year. Moore is a great value right now, but we’ll see how long that lasts with the news that Kadarius Toney is already dealing with a knee injury that is set to sideline him possibly into the regular season. Moore’s playing time was a bummer last year. Many will dismiss him as an outright bust and question his talent, but talent isn’t the problem. Last year during the regular season, Moore ranked sixth in YAC per reception as he forced seven missed tackles with just 22 receptions. With a clear path to snaps in 2023, Moore’s ceiling is sky-high.
– Derek Brown
Darius Slayton (WR – NYG)
Darius Slayton re-signed with the Giants in the offseason, inking a two-year deal worth $6M with $4.9 M guaranteed. He is currently the team’s highest-paid WR and should be a lock for a full snap share in 2023. He should be able to slide seamlessly back onto the perimeter as the Giants’ big playmaker opposite Hodgins, as long as he can fend off 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt. In 2022, the former Day 3 pick was used exclusively as Big Blue’s primary deep threat with a dominant 37% air yards share – a top-12 mark among all WRs. His 1.70 yards per route run represented a career-high and ranked 31st among 54 qualifying WRs with at least 80 targets. He also finished as a top-36 WR in 54% of his 13 contests (seven games). That was equal to the likes of Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams, Adam Thielen and Marquise Brown. He actually finished as a WR3 at a higher rate than D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk and Garrett Wilson. Dude is free across fantasy land (WR87), and I don’t know why.
– Andrew Erickson
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
Jahan Dotson played only 12 games as a rookie but scored seven touchdowns and had five weeks in which he was a top-20 scorer at the WR position. Dotson is fast, has terrific hands, runs good routes, and is exceptional at coming down with contested catches despite measuring 5-11, 181 pounds. With an ADP of WR40, this first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft is capable of providing a highly satisfying ROI in his second year in the league.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is available in Round 2 when his fantasy production looks much more like a first-round pick. Since Week 12 of the 2021 season…ARSB ranks 6th in PPR points/game, 1st in target rate (30.5%), 2nd in receptions (161) and 5th in total targets. At WR9…the Sun God is a value.
– Andrew Erickson
Jayden Reed (WR – GB)
Jayden Reed checks off all the boxes of a Day 3 sleeper WR, but the Green Bay Packers couldn’t wait until Day 3 draft him in the 2023 NFL Draft. They selected Reed 50th overall. Expect the Michigan State product to step in and be the immediate No. 2 WR behind Christian Watson. He broke out at an early age, at 18 years old, while playing alongside NFL talent at Western Michigan. In 2021, Reed blew up as a junior, with 1,026 yards and ten receiving touchdowns en route to a career-high 34% dominator rating. His 23-year-old age isn’t ideal, but his experience might just help him hit the ground running sooner rather than later, especially considering that Reed flashed ability as a downfield threat with a top-5 deep target rate (29%) in his draft class in 2022. He should be able to easily climb up the Packers WR depth chart, and therefore he’s a value as the WR75 in ADP.
– Andrew Erickson
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)
Last season, Vikings WR2 Adam Thielen was 9th in route participation and 8th in routes run per game with a whopping 18 red-zone targets. Minnesota selected Jordan Addison in the first round of this year’s draft with the idea that he will step into the No. 2 WR vacated by Thielen. Even as the third potential target in the pecking order (WR40 ADP), Addison’s rare role makes him very different from the majority of other No. 2 WRs. Keep in mind that the young WR enters the NFL with a very decorated college profile, setting the stage for him to produce with his playing time in Year 1. Recall that Addison broke out as an 18-year-old freshman in 2020 with 60 catches for 662 receiving yards and four TDs. The early-age production is a sign of an elite prospect, and it clearly foreshadowed Addison’s rise to becoming one of the best WRs in college football during his tenure.
– Andrew Erickson
Rashid Shaheed (WR – NO)
It’s difficult to overlook what Shaheed accomplished in his rookie season. After earning at least a 60% route per dropback rate last year, Shaheed was an impact player with three top 36 wide receiver weeks over his final seven games. In 2022, Shaheed ranked fourth in yards per route run and 22nd in PFF receiving grade (minimum 30 targets per PFF). While the Saints are hopeful that Michael Thomas returns to some semblance of his former greatness, it could be Shaheed and not Thomas that finishes second on the team in targets in 2023.
– Derek Brown
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
There’s no question in my mind that the easiest and best fantasy football value on the SF roster is wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk’s breakout potential was on full display last season, finishing as the WR15 with impressive yards per route run and route participation. Career high in yards per route run at 1.82 and 96% route participation. Making him just one of six players in 2022 to run a route on at least 96% of team dropbacks. And this high route participation dates to the middle of the 2021 season. Aiyuk has run a route on 95% of his team’s dropbacks since Week 9 of the ’21 season, third behind only Diontae Johnson and Justin Jefferson. Without Deebo Samuel in the lineup for a stretch of games in 2022, Aiyuk averaged 13.2 points per game – fantasy WR1 numbers. ADP prices considered, Aiyuk is an easy bet to beat the WR29 rank. He has also missed zero games over the last two seasons…something that is not true for his three teammates (Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel) that are drafted ahead of him. – Andrew Erickson
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
Smith-Njigba is only as low as he is in ADP because of the presence of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I’m not outright dismissing either player, but haven’t we seen it enough over the last few seasons to understand that talented rookies are strong bets to make if we believe in the talent. Trust me, I believe in the talent. It’s hard not to have faith in a player that was first in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while drawing a 22.7% target share alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in 2021. Smith-Njigba could be ranked as a weekly WR2 by the middle of the season.
– Derek Brown
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