The 2023 regular season is almost here. That means many fantasy football leagues will have their draft anytime now. Some fantasy players like to draft early, while others prefer to wait until the last minute. Early drafters like taking advantage of the values in the average draft position (ADP).
Meanwhile, last-minute drafters like avoiding preseason injuries and training camp battles.
Whether you like to draft early or at the last minute, identifying players with an underrated ADP or an overvalued ADP is critical to winning.
Here are 11 players I am avoiding in Fantrax league drafts.
11 Overvalued Players to Avoid on Fantrax Leagues (2023 Fantasy Football)
Tagovailoa was QB15 last year, averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game. While he was the QB10 on a points-per-game basis, fantasy players should be hesitant to draft the Miami quarterback as their QB1 this season. The former Alabama star struggled with injuries last year, missing four games and leaving others early with concussions. Furthermore, Tagovailoa was wildly inconsistent. The veteran threw 60% of his passing touchdowns and scored over half his fantasy points for the year in four matchups against subpar defenses.
Meanwhile, Tagovailoa averaged only 12.8 fantasy points per game in the other nine games. Fantasy players should wait a few rounds and target Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers instead.
Last year Pickett averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Matt Ryan and Davis Mills while averaging only 0.6 fantasy points more than Zach Wilson. Yet, the second-year quarterback has a higher ADP than Jared Goff despite the veteran being the QB10 last season. Meanwhile, Pickett had seven passing touchdowns compared to nine interceptions as a rookie.
While he had three passing touchdowns and only one interception over the final three games, Pickett averaged only 202.3 passing yards and 12.5 fantasy points per game in those contests. Ryan Tannehill is the QB25 in ADP and is a better QB2 option for fantasy players.
Until Jacobs signs the franchise tag, fantasy players should be nervous about drafting the star running back. Unfortunately, that isn’t my only concern with Jacobs. Last year the former Alabama star averaged 4.9 yards per rushing attempt. By comparison, he averaged 3.95 yards per rushing attempt over the previous two years combined.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have talked about using Zamir White more this season after he had a quiet rookie year. More importantly, can fantasy players trust the star running back? What happens if Jacobs suffers an injury? Will he fight through it or use it as an excuse to sit on the bench and wait for the offseason?
I was a huge fan of Pierce last season. The former Gator was an underrated draft prospect and an easy pathway to a featured workload. Pierce was a top-15 running back before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 14, averaging 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, Houston significantly upgraded their offense this offseason. They improved the passing game by drafting C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell.
More importantly, the Texans signed Devin Singletary in free agency, giving the former Gator meaningful competition for touches in the backfield. While I am still a fan of Pierce, he shouldn’t get drafted ahead of Cam Akers and Miles Sanders.
While Kamara only received a three-game suspension, fantasy players should still temper their expectations for the veteran running back. He averaged 12.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and had only two rushing touchdowns last season, both career lows. By comparison, Kamara was a touchdown machine early in his career, totaling 13 or more in three of his first four years in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the veteran has 13 total touchdowns over the past two years. More importantly, New Orleans added Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller this offseason. While Kamara isn’t an awful fantasy pick, I would rather have David Montgomery and James Cook with a later ADP over the veteran running back.
Samuel had a career year in 2021, averaging 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the veteran has struggled outside of that season. Meanwhile, he has missed nearly a quarter of the games in his career because of injury. More importantly, Samuel’s fantasy production plummeted after the 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey.
The veteran was the WR10, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game before the running back’s arrival. By comparison, he was the WR59, averaging only nine fantasy points per game once the team added the superstar running back. There is no reason why Samuel should get drafted with a top 50 pick.
Unfortunately, Pittman finished the year as the WR23, averaging 10.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. By comparison, he was the WR15, averaging 11.4 fantasy points per game the year before. Yet, Pittman’s target volume improved. After averaging 7.6 targets per game in 2021, the veteran averaged 8.8 per game last season. Furthermore, his yards per route run dropped from a career-high 1.95 two years ago to 1.44 last year.
More importantly, the Colts haven’t significantly improved their quarterback situation. Anthony Richardson has fantasy upside but will struggle to throw the ball this year. Meanwhile, Indianapolis improved its receiving core this offseason. Pittman shouldn’t get drafted anywhere near his sixth-round ADP.
Last season Thomas was the WR9 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 14.4 fantasy points per contest, only 0.2 fewer than A.J. Brown. However, Thomas was the WR114 after playing only three games. Unfortunately, the former Ohio State star has played only 20% of the contests over the past three years because of injuries.
Meanwhile, Chris Olave has taken over as the No. 1 wide receiver in New Orleans, limiting Thomas’ target share going forward. While he is the 44th wide receiver off the board, fantasy players shouldn’t draft the former Ohio State star over Elijah Moore and several other wide receivers. Thomas has too much injury history to be worth a ninth-round selection.
Fantasy players knew Williams would have a limited rookie year after tearing an ACL in his final college game. Unfortunately, the rookie caught only one of his nine targets. However, it was a 40-yard touchdown reception. While the former Alabama star showed off his big play ability, Williams will miss the first six games this year after he violated the NFL’s gambling policy. That means fantasy players will have to burn a bench spot until Week 7 on the receiver.
While he might turn into a star one day, fantasy players should avoid using a 10th-round pick on a player with a six-game suspension and one career reception.
The former Iowa star was the TE2, averaging 10.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season. Hockenson had 86 receptions on 129 targets for 914 receiving yards and six touchdowns, all career highs. While the veteran was outstanding once he joined the Vikings, he was wildly inconsistent. The former Iowa star scored 27.4% of his fantasy points in the Week 16 matchup.
By comparison, he averaged only 8.7 fantasy points per game in the other nine contests. Furthermore, the veteran scored more than 9.6 fantasy points in only two of those nine games. Hockenson lacks the upside to get drafted ahead of Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts.
Engram was a popular sleeper tight end last year. The veteran was the TE6, averaging 8.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he scored half his fantasy points over a four-week window. Meanwhile, Engram averaged only 4.5 targets and only 5.4 fantasy points per game in the other 13 contests. Over a 17-game space, he would have ended the year as the TE20 with that fantasy points per game average.
More importantly, Calvin Ridley will have a significant role this season, cutting into Engram’s 22.6% target share from 2022. Last year the veteran was a bargain as a late-round selection. Now he’s overpriced as an eighth-round pick.
More Commissioner Site Guides
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
