This time next month, we’ll be watching regular season NFL! That’s an amazing thing to think about, and that means this is my final installment of Yahoo value plays. We actually have a handful of carryovers from the first two articles, but there have also been some developments since then. What’s becoming clear is that there’s a gap between Yahoo ADP and FantasyPros ECR, which plays a huge factor in this piece. With that in mind, let’s start with my favorite quarterback this season!

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Best Fantasy Football Draft Values on Yahoo! Leagues

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert (LAC): ADP 54 | ECR 47

I have a feeling that Herbert will end up on most of my teams on Yahoo. This guy is being taken as the QB8 on Yahoo, and I genuinely believe he can finish as the QB1. The reason he’s falling so far in drafts is a rough 2022 season, but all the indicators are there for him to bounce back. What’s funny is that he attempted the most passes in his career (699 attempts) on the highest percentage (68 percent) but had the fewest touchdowns. There’s no chance that happens again, with Herbert averaging 4,675 passing yards and 34.5 passing touchdowns through his first two years. He also added 268 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns as well, which makes it surprising that he had just 146 rushing yards and no touchdowns on the ground last year. It feels like there was a ton of bad luck for Herbert in the 2022-23 season, but the talent is there for him to be one of the best values on Yahoo, mainly since he’s being drafted as the QB8.

Kirk Cousins (MIN): ADP 115 | ECR 97

While I did watch the Netflix documentary, that is not why I’m drafting Cousins. On the contrary, I actually found Cousins a bit insufferable, but he’s an immense value on Yahoo for fantasy purposes. This guy is being taken as the QB15 over on Yahoo but he has never finished that low at any point in his career. In fact, Cuz has only landed outside the Top 13 at the quarterback position once since the 2015 season! That’s nearly a decade of consistency, with Cousins finishing as a Top 10 guy in over half of those. He is also third in the NFL in air yards over the last two years and will always remain fantasy-relevant as long as he’s throwing to the best player in fantasy football, Justin Jefferson. It’s far from a sexy pick to take Cousins, but there’s no better backup out there.

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison (MIN): ADP 62 | ECR 56

I was surprised to see Dalvin Cook released, but Minnesota clearly has some serious confidence in Mattison. He’s had to step up plenty for the oft-injured Cook in the past, dominating whenever he’s been sidelined. In the last five games that DC has missed, Mattison is averaging 21.4 carries and 4.4 catches per game. That’s the usage we want from one of our top running backs, and it’s certainly not empty usage, either. Mattison is averaging 90 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards, and one touchdown in those five workhorse outings! A bellcow role looks likely when examining the rest of the backfield because we don’t expect Ty Chandler or Kene Nwangwu to take Mattison off the field. Volume is one of the most critical factors when drafting a running back, and there’s no better bet for monster volume in the mid-rounds than Mattison.

Rachaad White (TB): ADP 79 | ECR 65

This is a very similar situation to Mattison. Tampa decided to move on from Leonard Fournette in the offseason, and it looks like they want Rachaad White to take over the backfield. Training camp reports have been extremely positive in White’s favor because he’s expected to be a three-down back for this team. It’s easy to see why when looking at this running back core, with Chase Edmonds and Ke’Shawn Vaughn looking like ancillary pieces. White was wonderful when filling in for Fournette last season, averaging 18 carries and 4.5 receptions in the two games Lenny missed. White was also highly productive in a limited role last year, averaging 7.2 fantasy points across just 27 snaps a game. Both of those totals could double, which means White needs to be a Top 50 player in drafts!

Jeff Wilson/Raheem Mostert (MIA): ADP 132/133 | ECR 121/134

This is an interesting strategy, but I’ve done it several times already. It looks like these two will split the Miami backfield 50/50, but this could be beneficial for us! What we love to do is take both of these guys late in drafts! You can hold these two on your bench until one breaks out or the other gets injured. It won’t cost you much to draft both of these talented backs, but we expect this Miami backfield to be one of the most dangerous in the NFL.

Despite limited roles last season, both of these guys were productive. In the 10 games Wilson played at least 30 snaps, he averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game. Mostert was nearly identical, averaging 12.1 fantasy points per game in the nine games he played at least 30 snaps. It will obviously be impossible to pick which one to use every week, but that’s okay since both of these guys will be sitting on your bench through the opening month. Chances are, injuries or effectiveness will give one of these guys a significant bump and make one of them a Top 20 running back for weeks at a time. That sort of upside is hard to overlook with such limited capital involved, and it makes both of these guys an enticing late-round pick, especially if you can pair them together!

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen (LAC): ADP 49 | ECR 45

Allen was in our first value article back in June, and we still love this veteran. He’s falling outside the Top 40 in most drafts that I’ve seen, and it’s clear fantasy managers are worried. So many people tell me that Allen has a tough time staying on the field, but he’s played at least 14 games in five of the last six years and he played 16 games in four of those seasons! That doesn’t sound like an injury-prone player to me, but people have short memories. Allen played just 10 games last season, but averaged 7.5 catches for 84.4 receiving yards in the final nine games following his injury. In the five years that Allen played at least 14 games, he never finished below WR14. He was also seventh among wideouts in the final nine games of last year, and we expect him to be Herbert’s safety blanket once again.

Diontae Johnson (PIT): ADP 91 | ECR 71

Johnson had one of the most bizarre stat lines I’ve ever seen last year. He finished with 86 receptions on 147 targets for 882 receiving yards. That sounds solid on the surface, but he set a record by failing to record a touchdown. That’s a fluke more than anything because DJ had 15 touchdowns in the two years prior. In that three-year span, Johnson is averaging 93.7 catches for 989 receiving yards on 153 targets. Those are the averages you see from a Top 10 wide receiver, and Johnson is being taken as the WR29 on Yahoo. That’s a laughable overreaction to a flukey no-touchdown season, and we have to assume Kenny Pickett will take some leaps at the quarterback position this year. If DJ duplicates the catches and yards we saw last season while regressing back to the mean in touchdowns, he’ll bounce back into the Top 20 at the wide receiver position.

Michael Thomas (NOS): ADP 118 | ECR 112

This one is risky, but there’s a ton of upside when drafting Thomas. He’s rightfully fallen outside the Top 100 in drafts, but people are forgetting just how good this guy was before some injuries. Thomas has only played 10 games since the 2019 season, but he was the best option in fantasy before that. In fact, MT averaged 117.5 receptions for 1,378 receiving yards on 150.5 targets through his first four years. He also added eight touchdowns per year, and just 75 percent of that would make Thomas an immense value at the end of your draft. Reports are that Thomas is fully healthy and looking like his old self, which is incredible since New Orleans has their first legitimate quarterback since Drew Brees in Derek Carr. Despite missing most of the last three years, Thomas was still productive in those outings. In his last eight regular season games, Thomas averaged 6.8 catches for 74 yards per outing. That would be fine from such a cheap player, and it doesn’t even account for his massive upside.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller (NYG): ADP 65 | ECR 82

We’ve had Waller in every article so far, so he needs to be in my final one! This guy is simply the best option at the tight end position for where he’s drafted. I truly believe Waller will finish as a Top 3 tight end if he stays healthy this season because that’s close to what we’ve seen over the last handful of years. He’s been a Top 10 tight end in points per game in each of the previous four years and has finished as the TE2 in two of those. That’s wild because he’s been battling Davante Adams for targets, but he will be the focal point in the Giants passing game. Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Parris Campbell are the top receivers in this offense, and there’s no chance Waller isn’t the top target for Daniel Jones among that lackluster corp.

Zach Ertz (ARI): ADP 135 | ECR 260

You probably don’t even need to draft Ertz, but he’s a guy you need to keep an eye on. This tight end was actually seventh in fantasy points per game before getting injured last year and has been one of the most productive ends throughout his career. He was also a Top 4 tight end every year between 2016-2019 and could be asked to do more with DeAndre Hopkins getting traded. That means there are plenty of targets on the table for Ertz to snag, and you know this terrible Arizona team will have to throw a ton all year. It’s bizarre to see Ertz as the TE28 on Yahoo because he’s never been that bad at any point in his career. People are clearly worried about the emergence of Trey McBride, but Ertz has been way too productive to fall this far in drafts.

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