It all comes down to this. All of the offseason fantasy football draft prep. All of the mock drafts. All of the time you’ve spent preparing for your 2023 fantasy football drafts will come down to the next few weeks. Are you ready? As always, we’re here to help. Our analysts have put in the work to identify players they are avoiding in drafts that could sink your season before it even begins. You can find a few of their least favorite fantasy football draft picks below. And for all of their targets and avoids, check out our articles from each analyst.
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid
Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ)
He’s still a good quarterback, but Rodgers’ days of being a good fantasy quarterback are probably over.
Rodgers doesn’t run much anymore. He’s capable of being an efficient passer, but he’s unlikely to be a prolific passer; the Jets don’t need him to be one. Head coach Robert Saleh’s defense was one of the best in the league last year and should be again, which means Rodgers probably isn’t going to be involved in many shootouts this year. He’ll be more of a game manager than gunslinger.
The Jets’ new offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, was the Packers’ OC for three seasons, from 2019 to 2021. During those three years, the Packers ranked 28th, 32nd and 32nd in offensive pace.
Rodgers is an adequate fantasy backup, but if you’re in a position where you have to start him week after week, you’re going to get consistently trucked at the position by teams with elite QBs.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
There’s no ignoring the elephant in the room with Tua Tagovailoa’s injury risks heading into the 2023 season. He sustained multiple concussions last season, with him not fully clearing the concussion protocol until the end of January. And that was despite his last game being played on Christmas 2022. The Dolphins quarterback reportedly considered retirement this offseason, but ultimately, he plans on playing. Tagovailoa has tried to “bulk up” in the offseason to brace for additional hits, but only time will tell how long that will keep him upright. The Dolphins’ offensive line is below average – 20th-ranked per PFF – with their best offensive lineman, tackle Terron Armstead, often injured himself. Armstead recently suffered an injury during Miami’s training camp. Austin Jackson barely played last year after being placed on IR very early on. Guard Liam Eichenberg has struggled for two years as PFF’s fourth-lowest graded guard among 85 qualifiers. All three are projected starters. Not ideal.
And injuries aside, I am not convinced that Tagovailoa has the perceived elite fantasy upside you want to draft in this middle tier as the QB10. When he was healthy, and everything was going his way, he was averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game (QB7). But again, he offered zero value as a rusher. He totaled just six rushing yards per game (70 total yards in 12 games). And as the QB7…he was passing TDs at a 6.3 percent clip (nearly two TDs per game). That tied Patrick Mahomes for the highest TD rate in the league. And it’s a number that’s likely to regress over a larger sample size. Case in point, his 25 passing TDs were five TDs over expectation – the most among all passers in 2022.
If everything goes right for Tagovailoa, he’s a small win. That’s not enough for me to be a buyer, given his additional risk.
-Andrew Erickson
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
Saquon hasn’t been truly effective as a pass catcher since 2019. He averaged 5.9 yards per catch and 4.4 yards per target last year. Over the 13 games he played in 2021, he averaged 6.4 yards per catch and 4.6 yards per target. Saquon has had two TD catches in his last 34 games (playoffs included). His rushing production started to taper off late last season. Over his first nine games of 2022, Saquon averaged 103.4 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. Over his last seven regular-season games, he averaged 54.4 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. (And it really wasn’t a matchup thing … the only top-5 run defense he faced during that stretch, based on DVOA, was Dallas. The Lions’ run defense, which was 26th in DVOA, held him to 22 yards on 15 carries.)
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
Could Alexander Mattison be the Vikings’ new workhorse? Possibly, but his profile more closely resembles a dead zone back to avoid. Mattison has been increasingly inefficient early in his NFL career. His Yards after contact per attempt have dropped in the last four seasons, while his yards per route run has dipped over the last three years. Last season he only managed one run of 15-plus yards with his 74 carries. The other running backs on the Vikings’ depth chart might not be household names, but Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride, and Kene Nwangwu are all talented players who could carve into Mattison’s volume in 2023.
-Derek Brown
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
Full disclosure. I was frequently drafting Breece Hall throughout the summer, but I had been dialing back my exposure. The Twitter doctors are giving me the green light based on his youth and type of ACL injury. I don’t want to miss Hall’s upside. Therefore, I’m not overly concerned about his injury from last season.
#NFL Injury FAQ:#Jets Breece Hall – Cook signing doesn't mean Hall is behind schedule. But does increase chances that they will slow-play his return.
Young RBs avg 3-4 games to ramp up touches. They will likely take at least that long w/Breece.
1/5
— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) August 15, 2023
But I acknowledge that I am not a medical professional. And as great as the doctors are on the newly-named X App, they aren’t Hall or Jets team doctors. So, it’s important to note there’s always going to be more inherent risk in drafting a running back coming off a torn ACL than not. As I’ve made clear throughout the running back busts section, is that injuries are what causes players to bust often. And until we see Hall fully suit up and practice in some capacity in training camp, he brings a much higher bust profile. Being activated off the PUP list was a good sign. But Hall commenting on knee soreness and “trust” in cutting is really ominous. Specifically, because Hall’s ADP is still in the back-end fantasy RB1 range.
A sluggish start could seriously put fantasy football gamers behind the 8-ball, making Hall someone you need to get a draft day discount with. For me, he has to be drafted outside the first four rounds. The Jets have a brutal six-week schedule to open the year and their offensive line has been a mess all summer, so nobody will be surprised if Hall struggles out of the gates. The team also recently signed veteran Dalvin Cook to a pretty lucrative one-year contract, suggesting he’s not there to just be a backup. He’s going to play, most likely from the get-go. Aaron Rodgers wanted to get this guy.
So in addition to rehabbing a torn ACL, Hall faces a brutal schedule behind a shaky offensive line, learning a new offense with a new QB and overall touch competition from a seasoned veteran that owns a three-down skill set handpicked by the team’s starting QB to join the team. If it’s this easy to see how Hall fails to fire this season, why are we taking on so much risk with a top-5o pick?
You want to be a smart drafter in the early rounds and there are just too many red flags that suggest Hall isn’t the best use of high-end draft capital. Remember, most players BUST. When they burn you, it’s because they don’t hit expectations. Not because you faded them with an expensive ADP.
There are other good players in Hall’s draft range that possess high-end upside as well, without nearly the same risk factors such as Travis Etienne Jr., Lamar Jackson, Jahmyr Gibbs, DK Metcalf or Jerry Jeudy. Don’t be a hero if you don’t have to be.
Hall’s rookie year featured him finishing as RB1 (top-12) in 29% of his games. That ranked 17th. Tied with Kenneth Walker (also cheaper than Hall). D’Andre Swift was at 31%. Raheem Mostert 33%. James Conner 38%. His new teammate, Cook was at 25%. As was Travis Etienne Jr., A.J. Dillon and J.K. Dobbins.
Simply put, there are other RBs with high upside…not-named Breece Hall.
Hall is probably a better buy-low target after the start of the year, where he can probably be obtained at a further discount. And if you do draft him, you need to come prepared with a contingency plan in case he’s not at full strength from a productivity standpoint. Ie. Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine can help plug your RB roster hole.
-Andrew Erickson
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
| Weeks | Yards after contact per attempt | Breakaway % | Elusive rating |
| 1-5 | 2.48 | 7.2% | 39.3 |
| 6-18 | 2.83 | 14.6% | 67.4 |
In the first five weeks of last season, Harris struggled with a metal plate in his shoe while playing through a preseason Lisfranc injury. His tackle-breaking and explosive play ability suffered immensely. After the plate was removed after Week 5, Harris looked more like the player we saw in his rookie season, as he ranked 22nd in Yards after contact per attempt and tenth in elusive rating. His ability to provide explosiveness still was lacking, though, as he had the fifth-lowest breakaway percentage among running backs across his final 12 games. It’s sad, but at this juncture, Harris looks like ugly David Montgomery in fantasy, which, to be honest, is probably too heavy-handed and a slight to Montgomery. Montgomery bests Harris in career yards per route run, PFF receiving grades, and YAC per reception. The Steelers coaching staff came to their senses and worked in the lightning-in-a-bottle Jaylen Warren more as the last season wore on. We could see that continue in 2023, with Warren taking even more work away from Harris. After Week 5 last season, Warren bested Harris with 30.6% of the team’s high-value touches as Harris sat at 17.8%. After a rookie season where Harris played less than 75% of the snaps only three times, Harris only crossed that mark three times in 2022. After Week 5, Warren posted 1.6 yards per route run and drew a target on 23% of his routes run, which dwarfed Harris (0.87, 20%). Warren can further eat in Harris’s snaps in 2023, especially on passing downs which will send Harris packing his bags for bust town.
-Derek Brown
George Pickens (WR – PIT)
Pickens made some splashy plays as a rookie. He’s an acrobat on contested catches, a darling of the highlight reels. He averaged 9.5 yards per target last season, which is a really good number. Undoubtedly you sense there’s a “but” coming. (You’re not wrong.)
Pickens’ inability to earn targets last year is concerning. He had a 15.3% target share as a rookie. Pickens didn’t have more than eight targets in any game all season. He didn’t have more than six targets in any game from Week 6 on.
Pickens was near the bottom of the wide receiver rankings in separation last year, according to Next Gen Stats. He only averaged 2.0 yards after the catch, which was also near the bottom of the WR rankings.
The contested catches are fun, but when you’re making a lot of contested catches, it’s a symptom of not getting a lot of separation with your routes. That appears to be the case with Pickens.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
Terry McLaurin’s 2022 season was a tale of two halves. With Carson Wentz under center, McLaurin’s role withered, as he had a 16.3% target share, a 26.4% air yard share, and 1.52 yards per route run. McLaurin’s season would have been sunk if Wentz had kept ignoring him all season. Once Wentz was sidelined by injury, McLaurin exploded with Taylor Heinicke under center. With Heinicke, McLaurin had a 29.8% target share, a 44% air yard share, and 2.73 yards per route run (28% target per route run rate). McLaurin’s skills haven’t diminished one bit. The problem has been the quarterbacks tossing him the ball. At the moment, Washington is entertaining the Sam Howell experience under center in 2023 (it could easily be Jacoby Brissett). With Howell and new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy, we have no clue about the possible offensive scheme in Washington in 2023. Will they play slow? Will they be run-centric? You can’t just cut and paste previous seasons of the Chiefs’ offensive output and transpose them to Washington. Andy Reid had a hand in playcalling. How much is debatable, but we don’t know. With a new offensive system, quarterback questions, and play volume worries, I’m out on McLaurin.
-Derek Brown
DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)
Devonta Smith was the WR28 in expected fantasy points per game last season. He finished ninth in total points scored above expectation. Overall, he ended the year as the WR16 in points per game. So why is he drafted as the WR11/12 overall?
Before Dallas Goedert’s injury in Week 10, Smith was averaging fewer than 10 fantasy points per game (9.7). He was the WR29 overall. But after Goedert was sidelined from Weeks 11-15, Smith went en fuego finishing the season (Weeks 11 through 18) as the WR5. The Slim Reaper was averaging 15 points per game in half-point scoring.
His current ranking is too heavily weighing his production when Goedert missed time in the second half of the season. Before his injury, the two were posting a nearly identical target rate per route run (20.3 percent vs. 19.4 percent).
In the season’s totality, Smith was a fantasy WR1 (top-12) in just 19 percent of his games last season (27th). Three top-12 threshold finishes. That’s it. Fewer than Christian Watson, Mike Williams, and Zay Jones.
Per the FantasyPros consensus projections, Smith is WR16 in half-PPR. For Week 1 only, Smith is WR25.
-Andrew Erickson
George Kittle (TE – SF)
George Kittle has been a highly regarded tight end in fantasy football, but there are reasons to believe that he may be overrated heading into the 2023 season.
Without looking it up…who do you think has played more games over the last three seasons? George Kittle or Darren Waller? Trick question. It’s the same. 37 regular season games played.
In 2022, Kittle had his lowest yards per route run since his rookie season. This indicates a potential decline in his effectiveness as a receiver and raises concerns about his ability to consistently produce at a high level.
Even with Brock Purdy as his quarterback, Kittle still trailed Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in target share, ranking third in the pecking order (tied with Christian McCaffrey). Without Samuel healthy for four games, Kittle’s fantasy production nearly doubled, with 1.5 receiving TDs per game.
Kittle’s performance in 2022 was marked by inconsistency. He had six games with fewer than 40 receiving yards, with three of them occurring when Samuel was on the field. However, Kittle did have three games with over 90 receiving yards, mainly when Purdy was at quarterback and Samuel was absent. His 50 percent bust rate last season led all tight end scorers inside the top seven at the position. This volatility makes him a riskier option for fantasy managers.
Kittle owned an eighth-ranked 19 percent target share among all tight ends in 2022 and ranked 13th in target rate per route run at 22 percent. While these numbers are solid, they don’t necessarily place him in the upper echelon of fantasy tight ends.
Kittle significantly outperformed his expected touchdown total, finishing with 11 touchdowns compared to an expected total of 6.2. This suggests that he may experience a regression in touchdown production in 2023, which could have a negative impact on his fantasy output.
Considering these factors, it’s reasonable to argue that Kittle is overvalued as the TE4, being drafted around the 57th overall pick. His declining yards per route run, inconsistent performances, and the likelihood of touchdown regression make him a riskier option compared to other tight ends available later in the draft.
In Kittle’s draft range, I prefer Kyle Pitts, Cam Akers, James Conner, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, and Brandon Aiyuk. Kittle is still being drafted 49th in redraft ADP (61st in best ball ADP).
-Andrew Erickson
More Fantasy Football Draft Advice from our Analysts
Positional Primers
- Fitz’s Quarterback Primer
- Fitz’s Running Back Primer
- Fitz’s Wide Receiver Primer
- Fitz’s Tight End Primer
Perfect Drafts
Fantasy Draft Cheat Sheets
- Fitz’s Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
- Erickson’s Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
- DBro’s Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Round-By-Round Draft Strategy
- DBro’s How to Approach Early Rounds
- DBro’s How to Approach Middle Rounds
- DBro’s How to Approach Late Rounds
- Erickson’s Strategy for Early Snake Draft Picks
- Erickson’s Strategy for Middle Snake Draft Picks
- Erickson’s Strategy for Late Snake Draft Picks
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
