There’s a ton of talent at the wide receiver position. Thankfully, it doesn’t dry up after the top-12 wide receivers are picked. Instead, the WR2 and WR3 options are plentiful. Finding wideouts selected as the WR13-WR36 who outperform their average draft position (ADP) can help fantasy teams immensely, whether gamers invest in an elite wideout early, build around stud running backs, or pop a stud quarterback or tight end early. Two wideouts were eye-catching values in the robust WR2 and WR3 range in half point-per-reception (half PPR) formats. Furthermore, they’re both selected after the 50th pick and separated by 12 picks in half PPR ADP. So, gamers can conceivably choose both.
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WR2 and WR3 Targets
Christian Kirk (WR – JAC): 55.3 ADP/66 ECR
Kirk thrived in his first year on the Jaguars. The former Cardinal was the WR14 in half PPR total points and the WR22 in half PPR points per game (PPG) in 2022. Kirk had stellar traditional and advanced numbers last year.
Per Pro-Football-Reference, Kirk was 16th in targets (133), tied for 25th in receptions per game (4.9), 21st in receiving yards per game (65.2) and tied for 11th in touchdown receptions (eight). Kirk’s touchdowns weren’t flukey big plays, either. According to our red zone stats, Kirk’s seven touchdown receptions inside the 20-yard line were tied for the most by a wide receiver from Week 1 through Week 17 in 2022.
Kirk’s advanced stats were good, too. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 97 wideouts targeted at least 40 times in the regular season and postseason, Kirk was tied for 29th in Yards per Route Run (1.75 Y/RR). And per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Kirk was 22nd in Target Share (20.2%) and 26th in Intended Air Yards (1,233).
Calvin Ridley will provide Kirk with fresh target competition. However, Ridley can help elevate an already ascending offense if he allows Trevor Lawrence to take another step forward in his third professional campaign. In that case, a high tide can raise all ships. Additionally, Jacksonville’s offensive tendencies were good for the pass-catchers. First, according to Football Outsiders, the Jaguars were ninth-fastest in situation-neutral pace last season. Second, per nfelo app, the Jaguars were ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected (0% PROE). So, even with Ridley in the mix, Kirk is a high-floor pick with a high ceiling as well.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT): 67.3 ADP/77 ECR
In 2021, Johnson was the WR8 in half PPR total points and WR8 in half PPR PPG among wideouts who played more than one game. Thus, Johnson is only a season removed from a WR1 finish while catching passes from an entirely washed-up Ben Roethlisberger. Sadly, he slipped to the WR37 in total half PPR points and the WR49 in half PPR PPG. It wasn’t the fantasy finish gamers who drafted him last year hoped for.
Still, Johnson was a volume hog. He was fifth in Target Share (26.8 %) and ninth in Intended Air Yards (1,643). The biggest bugaboo for Johnson was his inability to reach paydirt. He scored zero touchdowns in 2022. According to PFF, Johnson’s expected touchdown total was 6.6. If Johnson scored six touchdowns, rounding down from PFF’s expected touchdown mark, he would have been the WR19 in total half PPR points and the WR30 in half PPR PPG. Johnson is the WR30 in ADP and the WR34 in ECR. Thus, even if he merely ran back last year with standard touchdown regression, he can break even.
However, Pittsburgh’s offense could improve this year. They opened last year with Mitchell Trubisky as the starting quarterback before turning the offense over to rookie Kenny Pickett. Encouragingly, Pickett’s play improved as the year went on.
According to PFF, in Week 1 through Week 8, Pickett was their 27th-ranked passer among 35 quarterbacks who dropped back at least 100 times. Pickett had 962 passing yards, two touchdowns, eight interceptions, three big-time throws (1.7 BTT%) and eight turnover-worthy plays (3.9 TWP%) in five games and on 191 dropbacks. From Week 9 through Week 18, Pickett was 15th out of 40 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks in PFF’s passing grade. He passed for 1,633 yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions, 15 big-time throws (5.3 BTT%) and seven turnover-worthy plays (2.2 TWP%) in nine games on 302 dropbacks.
If Pickett can build on his finish to his rookie campaign, Johnson can return to his 2021 form. Yet, even if Pickett is average or slightly below average, Johnson can break even at his modest ADP. So, the fifth-year pro is drafted much closer to his floor than his ceiling. As a result, Johnson is a sweet target at the back of the fifth round or in the sixth round of half PPR formats.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
